Goldman's View on the Next Construction Boom: Data Centers, Power, and Healthcare Will Lead in 2026

U.S. private non-residential construction spending is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2026, with data centers, power infrastructure, and healthcare sectors becoming the main drivers, ushering in the next phase of construction boom.

The Goldman Sachs analyst team led by Adam Bubes stated in a recently released report that the bank maintains a positive outlook for the market. Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. private non-residential construction spending will achieve nominal growth of 2% in 2026, and further accelerate to 5% in 2027.

This forecast marks a market recovery following an adjustment in 2025. The analysts emphasize that the resilience of growth mainly comes from strong demand in specific industries, especially data centers, power infrastructure, and healthcare projects. This trend not only reveals the future direction of capital spending, but also provides important forward-looking signals for industrial, materials, engineering companies, and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

As early as about two and a half months ago, the Dodge Momentum Index had already shown signs that data center expansion plans would increase significantly in 2026. As a leading indicator measuring the dollar value of non-residential construction projects entering the planning stage, this index further corroborates Goldman Sachs’s view that construction activity will re-accelerate in 2026.

Data Centers, Power and Healthcare Will Lead the Recovery

Goldman Sachs stated that they have reinforced their outlook on private non-residential construction spending. Compared to 2025, the market performance in 2026 will see a clear turnaround, during which data centers, power infrastructure, and healthcare will be the most dominant project types.

According to Goldman Sachs’s predictive model, following a nominal growth of 2% in 2026, as construction activity in these key sectors further expands, the growth rate is expected to climb to 5% in 2027. This assessment is based on in-depth evaluation of project planning and potential capital investments, showing that structural demand in certain industries is offsetting cyclical weakness in the broader market.

For investors focused on macroeconomic cycles, Dodge Construction data serves as an important reference. As a leading indicator of U.S. construction activity, the index specifically measures the dollar value of new non-residential projects entering the planning stage. Analysts closely monitor this index as it often foreshadows broad cyclical turning points.

Structural Forces Driving Long-term Rebound

Current market data remains consistent with some previous analysis predictions. As early as May last year, UBS analyst Steven Fisher pointed out to clients that the construction boom of the Trump era, especially the wave of AI data center building, is expected to only permeate into the real economy by early 2026.

At the time, Fisher stated: “Before re-acceleration in 2026, the market will experience more slowdown.” He emphasized that this round of rebound will mainly be driven by stimulative measures and structural forces, while traditional cyclical factors will remain weak. Now, as the Dodge Momentum Index shows sharply increasing expectations for data center construction, this path of recovery driven by structural demand is becoming increasingly clear.

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