Google and Microsoft’s “double strike” approaches, OpenAI falls into an unprecedented crisis!

OpenAI has faced two major setbacks in succession. First, this week OpenAI’s main partner Microsoft and chip giant Nvidia announced a $350 billion “strategic partnership” with OpenAI’s competitor, Anthropic. This partnership almost doubled Anthropic’s valuation since September, marking a new phase of alliances in the AI sector. Next, Google unveiled its latest and so-called “most intelligent” AI model, Gemini 3. In early testing, Gemini 3’s performance has already surpassed ChatGPT, especially when compared with OpenAI’s newly released GPT-5.1. This series of events has made OpenAI’s industry dominance, established over the nearly three years since ChatGPT’s launch, appear more fragile than ever. These developments are unfolding against a backdrop of market instability. Earlier this month, growing concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble triggered a massive selloff in tech stocks, with analysts increasingly uneasy about the astronomical valuations and the widening gap with relatively meager revenues. Although Nvidia’s better-than-expected earnings on Wednesday reignited investor enthusiasm, the ultimate landscape of AI remains deeply uncertain. OpenAI’s Technical Lead No Longer Unchallenged? Currently, opinions are divided over whether OpenAI can maintain its leading position. Some analysts predict that Anthropic—and especially Google—will continue to erode OpenAI’s advantage. Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said: “Given Google’s scale, industry status, and its early mover advantage in search, Gemini could capture market share and leave OpenAI and other companies behind.” Others are more direct. AI skeptic Gary Marcus wrote in a recent blog post: “OpenAI has essentially squandered its former technical lead; Google has caught up.” Although Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dismissed the notion of an “AI bubble” in talks with investors, stating, “We see something very different,” market jitters have not fully subsided. Various signs suggest a challenge has been issued and OpenAI’s era of solo dominance may be over. Gemini 3 Pro Surpasses GPT-5.1 Across the Board According to Wallstreetcn, Gemini 3 Pro has established significant advantages in multimodal processing capabilities compared to competitors. In multimodal benchmarks such as MMMU-Pro, ScreenSpot-Pro, Video-MMMU, the model shows a notable leap over Gemini 2.5 Pro and has generally outperformed GPT-5.1 and Claude 4.5. In logical reasoning tests for image understanding, including Humanity’s Last Exam, ARC-AGI-2, AIME 2025, MathArena and other benchmarks, Gemini 3 Pro has far surpassed its own previous generation products as well as competitors like GPT-5.1 and Claude 4.5. Competition Intensifies, User Barrier Narrows For OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, a particularly notable signal is that the user gap is continuing to shrink. According to Google, its Gemini app already has 650 million monthly active users. By comparison, Altman claimed last month that ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users. Although the metrics are different, the growth momentum of competitors is obvious. Meanwhile, key roles in the supply chain are also shifting to rivals. Nvidia signed its first deal agreeing to provide AI hardware to Anthropic. This means OpenAI’s advantage in computing resources may be weakened, while Anthropic’s R&D and commercialization capabilities will be significantly enhanced. As Google achieves measurable progress in model technology and Anthropic gains backing from industry giants, OpenAI—once synonymous with AI—is facing mounting pressure. Trillion-Dollar Gamble, High Valuation Faces Test In the face of competition, OpenAI’s strategy appears to be doubling down, with plans to invest more than $1.4 trillion in data center construction over the next few years. However, the company is still burning through billions of dollars each quarter. This aggressive capital expenditure strategy could transmit Wall Street’s uncertainty to the private markets. For investors, this means it’s increasingly difficult to find reasonable justification for OpenAI’s “sky-high valuation” in the face of fierce competition that could suppress potential revenue growth. This dilemma echoes widespread market concerns about an AI bubble—whether the current lofty valuations are sustainable. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investments must be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their own circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.