Google vs. Nvidia ignites the optical module sector—is this the first step for A-shares to rebuild consensus on technology?
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Recently, Google released a new generation of AI large model, whose performance is close to or surpasses ChatGPT, and which was trained entirely based on its self-developed TPU chips. This breakthrough has significantly boosted market sentiment, with A-share optical module stocks collectively strengthening and the Wind Optical Module Index rising for three consecutive trading days.
A report from Huaxi Securities on the 26th pointed out that the current AI computing power sector shows significant differentiation, with the market highly focused on the potential challenge posed by Google’s TPU technology route to Nvidia’s GPU, and with clear differences in investor opinions. In the face of technological uncertainty, investors are adopting a cautious strategy, prioritizing the deployment of "computing power arms dealers" that supply both tech giants. Among them, leading companies in the optical module industry are seen as strong performers for securing orders from both Google and Nvidia. In contrast, stocks related to Google’s proprietary OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology route have been weak, indicating that at this stage of uncertain technology paths, the market prefers suppliers with dual cooperation foundations.
Huaxi Securities believes that as overseas AI concept trading becomes increasingly crowded, based on historical experience, capital may gradually rotate to the domestic computing power sector, which is still undervalued; this presents potential opportunities for the next phase of positioning.
History repeats itself? As overseas computing power trading becomes crowded, domestic computing power may become an "undervalued sector"
Huaxi Securities’ research report points out that the current market pattern is highly similar to the situation in June and July this year; the optical module sector driven by overseas factors has already risen sharply, while the domestic semiconductor sector has yet to show a clear starting signal.
Looking back at previous trends, in the subsequent August market, the domestic computing power sector quickly rose to become one of the market’s main lines, and the semiconductor sector also recorded significant gains. The logic behind this is that when trading on the overseas computing power industry chain becomes highly crowded, funds naturally shift towards the domestic computing power chain, which offers better cost performance and is yet to be fully explored.
It is noteworthy that the report points out that during the morning trading on November 26, the domestic computing power sector saw a brief surge, indicating that some sensitive funds have started to make preemptive moves, showing clear "game intentions." This suggests that if a consensus forms for investment in technology sectors, the currently undervalued domestic computing power sector may become a key focus for capital as an undervalued sector.
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