Google warning: The threshold for quantum cracking may be significantly lower than expected; the crypto industry needs to shift to post-quantum solutions by 2029 to respond.

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Google researchers warn that future quantum computers may break some of the cryptographic technologies used to protect Bitcoin and other digital assets with fewer resources than previously expected, intensifying discussions about how the industry should respond. The Google researchers did not claim that such machines already exist, but noted that their latest research suggests the computational capability required for such attacks may be less than many earlier estimates.

In a Google Research blog post, the researchers stated that future quantum computers might break elliptic-curve cryptography, a public key encryption technique widely used in the market. Their latest estimates show that the quantum computing hardware scale needed to break the so-called ECDLP-256 (used to secure encrypted wallets and transactions) may be reduced by about 20 times.

This does not mean Bitcoin or Ethereum are immediately at risk. However, in a white paper released on Monday, the researchers stated that the most definitive defense is to shift to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), a new security system designed to resist attacks from powerful computational capabilities. They also urged the crypto industry to reduce avoidable risks in the meantime. The researchers said:

We urge all vulnerable crypto communities to advance the migration to PQC as soon as possible.

Google positions this paper as a warning, aiming to buy the industry time to respond, rather than predicting imminent collapse. Last week, Google proposed a timeline with plans to fully migrate its security systems to post-quantum cryptography by 2029.

Concerns about the real threat quantum computing poses to cryptocurrencies have existed for years. In January this year, Coinbase Global established an independent advisory committee to study the impact of quantum computing on blockchain. That same month, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing concerns that advances in quantum computing could undermine the asset’s security.

On Tuesday, as Google’s paper attracted attention, the price of Bitcoin actually rose, with a maximum increase of 2.6% to about $68,300.

Even so, researchers indicate the actual emergence of such quantum computers may still happen later than the time needed for public blockchains to complete migration to post-quantum cryptography. However, the margin for error is shrinking. Given the speed of technological advances, developers, exchanges, and wallet service providers should act swiftly to strengthen system security before the threats become reality.

Matthew Kimmell, investment strategist at CoinShares, described the warning in the paper as a “responsible urgency.” He said: “The window of time is shrinking, and it’s becoming more credible. The significance of this research is in tightening the timeline for the industry to advance research and agree on an action plan. The good news is, this problem is still solvable.”

The researchers also pointed out that some early attempts have already begun, including post-quantum projects like QRL and Abelian, and related work on Algorand, as well as experiments on Solana and XRP Ledger. “These pioneering projects demonstrate that transitioning to post-quantum cryptography is feasible.”

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