Green building opens a trillion-dollar blue ocean.
```
Author | Zhou Zhiyu
Editor | Huang Yu
At the green building table, the rules are being rewritten: the former teacher Germany is now being surpassed by its student, China.
This judgment comes from none other than Berthold Kaufmann, Managing Director of Germany’s Passive House Institute and known as the “Father of Passive House.” This September, after visiting Ourun Shunda in Gaobeidian, Hebei, he remarked bluntly that Germany’s green building development is slow, while Chinese companies “are already at the global forefront of the industry.”
Behind this change is the end of the first half of the real estate game, which relied on land, leverage, and scale. The criteria for evaluating a home are no longer just location and size, but now also air quality, comfort, and the entirely new value standards of green energy efficiency.
A trillion-level game centering around “the home of the future” has begun. Driving this game are strong policy pushes, urgent demand, and technological empowerment. Giants of the old world are still struggling in the quagmire of debt, while challengers of the new world have already started exploring entirely different paths to strike gold.
A huge market opportunity built on real financial investment is emerging. According to Guosen Securities’ estimates, the direct incremental market size brought by green building standards during the 14th Five-Year Plan is approximately 1.76 trillion RMB. The “cake” of stock transformation is equally tempting, with market size projected to reach up to 215 billion RMB by the end of 2025.
According to the latest estimate released by the China Association of Building Energy Efficiency at the beginning of 2025, just one previously niche track—Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)—is expected to surpass one trillion RMB in market potential in China by 2030. And this is only one slice of the massive industrial chain of future buildings.
The market boom depends on the resonance of policy and demand.
On the policy side, from the promotion of mandatory standards for ultra-low energy consumption buildings to the increase of financial subsidies for renovating existing buildings, implementation is becoming increasingly strong.
On the demand side, the unprecedented public focus on health after the pandemic, along with China’s accelerated move toward a deeply aging society, is turning “smart health residences” capable of proactively monitoring health from an upgrade to a core necessity.
In the broad track of green, smart, and healthy buildings, opportunities worth hundreds of billions exist in every field—from green building materials and energy-efficient systems to digital management services throughout the full life cycle.
Facing the blue ocean, the challengers of the new world have already explored completely different paths to strike gold.
Landsea chooses to "travel light," packaging its years of expertise in green building technology into high value-added services and offering them to the whole industry. Its business gross profit margin remains at a robust double-digit level, proving that the market is willing to pay high premiums for true technical expertise.
Ourun Shunda, on the other hand, tries to completely redefine the product. It incorporates life-support technologies from aircraft and space capsules, as well as medical technologies, into buildings. Its “space house” can achieve energy and water self-sufficiency even in extreme environments, essentially becoming a “life capsule.” This disruptive product philosophy has also drawn admiration from Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Vice-Chair of the UN IPCC, who thinks this model “takes energy efficiency and people-oriented innovation to a new height.”
Meanwhile, the industry leaders are rapidly reaching a consensus. CRIC Research indicates that constructing “good houses” is now a strategic direction for residential products, transforming from policy concept to industry practice and set to become a long-term trend in the real estate market.
Leading real estate enterprises like Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources have each released their “good house” strategies. All use safety, comfort, green, and intelligence as core dimensions, extending to derived values like fine workmanship, service, low carbon, and health, and realizing a closed loop through quantifiable technical standards.
This signifies that the industry has reached a clear consensus: in the second half of real estate, competition is no longer about who can build the most houses, but about who can provide residents with healthier and more sustainable lives.
For future leading companies, the endgame of competition will not be about the house itself, but about the service ecosystem built around the physical space of the house—who can provide residents with a healthier, safer, and more sustainable life. This is why so many companies are continually seeking value in green, smart, healthy buildings—they see behind this a trillion-level blue ocean generated by the synergy of technology, policy, and demand.
However, to win the endgame in this blue ocean, having only green “hardware” is far from enough. Future leaders must combine high-quality buildings (hardware), intelligent systems (software), and health management (service). The house will no longer be a static commodity but an evolving service platform accompanying the resident throughout their life cycle.
Whoever can first transform from a developer into a “lifetime living service provider” will truly define the future of living and ultimately win this trillion-dollar game.
Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets have risks; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their own circumstances. Investing based on this article is at your own risk. ```