Guosheng Xiongyuan Outlook 2026: The underlying logic supporting A-shares "hasn't changed at all," technology and overseas expansion have the highest allocation value.
```
The 2026 Outlook Series live broadcast has already interviewed several chief strategists, but Dr. Xiong Yuan’s outlook provides a “clear vision at different levels”—he’s not just looking at a sector or a single year, but at the intersection of the five-year policy, industrial, and market cycles ahead.
If you want the fastest way to understand whether the “big logic” behind China’s A-shares still holds for the future, click to watch the replay → Riding the Trend | 2026 Annual Outlook · Episode 5
Core viewpoint summary:The beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan will reshape the policy rhythm over the next five years. The central government has clearly proposed “building on the past and launching full efforts,” meaning the intensity of policy execution will be distinctly stronger than in recent years.Next year’s GDP growth target remains at 5%. Economic development is once again at the core, and both fiscal and monetary policy will remain expansionary.Technology has been raised to the absolute core of the national strategy. AI, computing power, and advanced manufacturing will run through the entire chain of economic structural transformation and will be the focus of policy for the next five years.China's economic resilience is systematically underestimated. Against the background of significant property corrections and external demand pressure, exports and the manufacturing chain continue to show resilience.Industrial competitiveness brings fundamental changes to A-share pricing mechanisms. Leading tech firms will no longer rely on "storytelling," but on real profitability—changing how growth stocks are valued.The capital market's importance is rising—policy support is expanding to include both capital and institutional safeguards. From resolving local debts, to National Team support, to the central bank's direct purchase channels, the policy framework for stabilizing the market is being comprehensively reinforced.Next year’s A-share main theme is very clear: Tech + Going Global. Four main directions—all in AI, self-reliance, new quality productivity, global expansion—are essentially amplifications of national strategy and industry cycles.Equity and commodities will be the two most flexible asset classes in the future. External liquidity loosening and internal industrial upgrading give these asset classes greater trend certainty.Consumption and real estate will aim for “stability,” with structural opportunities trumping systematic recovery. Real estate can benefit from policy stabilization; highlights in consumption will come from new supply and scenarios, not aggregate recovery.The macro environment remains market-friendly; corrections are more a window for positioning. The core variables driving this cycle—liquidity, tech cycle, industrial competitiveness, and policy resolve—show no sign of reversal.
Q1: In your 2026 outlook, you mentioned that 2026 is a key year to “ride the trend,” and the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan. From the perspective of this plan, what key information should investors absolutely understand?
Xiong Yuan: This is a big and crucial question. Let’s begin with the timeline. It’s now December; as you know, the Fourth Plenary Session just wrapped up at the end of October, and the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan were issued. The period from now until the Two Sessions in March is the critical window for the plan to be implemented. The full outline will be published at the Two Sessions, typically 50,000 to 60,000 words, after which ministries, industries, and provinces will release their own five-year plans. In other words, these upcoming months are key to setting the tone for the next five years.
If I were to highlight what I consider especially important:
First, the next five years are defined as a key stage of building on the past, solidifying the foundation, and launching full efforts. This implies much stronger policy action than in recent years. By tradition, the second year of each five-year plan is seen as the “year of commencement.” Another important Party Congress will take place the following year. So, it's highly likely that next year will be one of strong, proactive policy.
Second, the economic growth target is not on “autopilot,” but is aspirational. The plan again emphasizes economic development as the central focus, explicitly proposing to “write a new chapter of rapid development,” and aims to double per capita income from 2020 by 2035. Roughly calculated, this means GDP growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan must stay in the 4.5%–5% range. Especially in the next two years, the country hopes for close to 5% growth—so macro policy will remain proactive and expansionary.
Third, within the drive for high-quality growth, technological self-reliance is even more emphasized than five years ago. While high-quality growth remains a focus, “high-level technological self-reliance” is now in an extremely core position. In the next five years, technology’s importance will only increase—it will be the top priority in driving high-quality growth.
Fourth, demographic change has been singled out as a “new challenge.” Compared to the past plan, there’s a new emphasis on demographic change. Since 2022, China’s population is shrinking, so future policy will pay more attention to “people,” such as investment in human capital, emphasizing the “Chinese people’s economy,” putting people first, and boosting fertility, elderly care, childcare, skill improvements, so people feel a greater sense of fulfillment.
These broad judgments ultimately boil down to a few core tasks. From an investment perspective, focus on three areas:
First, building a modern industrial system with advanced and high-end manufacturing at its heart;
Second, using technological innovation as the main driver, possibly with extraordinary measures ahead;
Third, continuous strengthening of domestic demand and internal circulation.
In summary, the 15th Five-Year Plan hasn’t changed the main logic of policy from the past few years, but it upgrades the order of priorities, policy rhythm, and intensity. Economic development, technology self-reliance, and expanding consumption and demand will be the persistent themes going forward.
The 15th Five-Year Plan sets out the direction, but the pace of policy depends on this year’s Central Economic Work Conference. When both direction and pace converge, mistakes are costlier.
Q2: The Central Economic Work Conference is about to convene. From your perspective, what incremental information might this year’s conference deliver?
Xiong Yuan: The five-year plan is a multi-year logic, but in the next week or two: internationally, the Fed is likely to discuss rate cuts; domestically, the Politburo and Economic Work Conference will set next year’s main policy direction.
If you want more details—I recently wrote a report “Xiong Yuan: Preview of the Central Economic Work Conference,” which you can search for. Briefly, here are my core views:
First, it’s highly likely next year’s growth target will remain about 5%. As I said, the 15th plan demands this. China is not “hands-off,” but wants higher growth. Given the economic headwinds, to hit 5% requires expansionary monetary, fiscal, and industrial policy.
Second, the policy themes will continue, but with some wording and intensity adjustments. For example, will “appropriately loose” and “timely cuts” still feature in monetary policy language? Will there be more emphasis on “precision” and “flexibility”? Worth watching. Fiscal policy is currently “proactive + strengthened;” it is worth seeing whether such intensity continues and which tools are selected. On the consumption side, since June, data weakened as government subsidies tapered—will subsidies be increased in 2026, and in what direction? This meeting may give advance signals.
Third, fixed asset investment and supply-side policies are key to achieving 5% growth. Real estate remains under pressure and will require stabilizing policies. Infrastructure in water, canals, pipelines, etc., will likely need fast growth to support overall investment. Manufacturing and export-related production investment will also be policy focal points.
Overall, the Central Economic Work Conference sums up the year and sets next year’s direction. My view: expect a proactive tone and expansion but no “big surprises”—major principles have been said many times; currently, there is little evidence of disruptive new policy. Likely, policy will be adjusted within existing frameworks for rhythm and strength.
Q3: In your report, you are “strategically and tactically bullish” on A-shares for next year, not just “optimistic.” What’s the underlying basis for this? What factors support continued strength in A-shares?
Xiong Yuan: In plain terms, I am bullish on A-shares. But instead of just saying “bullish,” I specify both “strategically” (medium/long term) and “tactically” (recognizing short-term volatility and rotation, but the overall trend is upward).
Why? Because in the past year, the key logics supporting A-shares haven’t reversed:
Externally, two points:
First, the US entering a rate-cut cycle improves global liquidity. If the Fed really lowers rates, emerging markets, including A-shares, will benefit.
Second, the global tech narrative, driven by AI and computing power, continues. There are no signs of a “bubble burst;” the story is shifting from concept to earnings. This is a medium-term support for equities, especially tech sectors.
Domestically, three main supports:
First, China’s economy is showing strong resilience under multiple pressures. Despite property declines, population shifts, US-China rivalry, the economy’s growth and exports are holding up, indicating underlying resilience.
Second, China’s industrial competitiveness is exceeding many expectations. In AI (e.g., DeepSeek), missiles, innovative drugs, many areas now have global competitiveness built on real profits, not hype.
Third, policy support for the capital market is unprecedented. Since autumn last year, from local debt resolution to various special funding, to PBOC and CSRC’s National Team pledges, even suggesting the central bank can directly support equity purchases—previously unthinkable. A-shares are being built as an alternative wealth carrier to real estate.
Summing up these external and internal factors: for the next one or two years, all major logics supporting A-shares—US liquidity, global tech cycle, China’s resilience, competitiveness, policy flexibility and the mission of A-shares in wealth creation—remain intact. Thus, I maintain both “strategic” and “tactical” bullishness. That’s my basic framework.
Concept is not direction, main theme is not a slogan. To become a configuration logic, the underlying logic must be clear and sustainable. Dr. Xiong gives four concise, actionable points.
Q4: In your 2026 outlook, the four key themes are: all in AI, self-reliance, going global, and new quality productivity. For retail investors, these may seem abstract. Can you explain, in plain terms, the logic behind each—is this why they’re the focus for A-shares next year?
Xiong Yuan: Let’s go through them one by one:
First: all in AI. All in AI refers to the tech super-cycle of AI and computing power. For the next few years, AI is the core of the broad tech sector. Whether computers, communications, semiconductors, or robotics, stories revolve around computing power, algorithms, and applications. This year’s market was story-driven; next year will focus more on real earnings. Which companies can turn AI into tangible revenue and profit? These will be crucial for stock selection.
Second: new quality productivity. The term sounds new, but at the core, it’s still tech-driven high-quality growth. The 15th Plan outlines a modern industrial system—advanced and high-end manufacturing, including concepts like 6G, embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion—fundamentally, it’s technology plus manufacturing. New quality productivity uses new technologies, models, and industries to restructure traditional production, raising efficiency and added value. This theme will persist for years.
Third: going global. This involves both passive and increasingly proactive elements. This plan emphasizes both China’s economy and the “Chinese people’s economy”—in other words, not just GDP (domestic) but GNI (including overseas). Chinese enterprises, capital, and talent “going global” will become ever more strategic. Previously, companies went overseas to avoid risks; in coming years, the government will encourage and steer firms, especially old-industrial sectors (steel, textiles, construction, etc.), to consolidate and expand global industry-chain positions. In the stock market, this will be a key theme for many leading sub-sectors.
Fourth: self-reliance and control. This has been discussed for years, but the plan goes further (e.g., boosting government procurement in self-reliant areas). Behind this is the trend towards domestic substitution. Whether in software or hardware, overcoming bottleneck links remains a policy and investment focus; relevant companies will benefit long-term.
Abstracting these four, you get two main lines:
One is technology (covering AI, new quality productivity, and self-reliance);
The other is going global (traditional and emerging industries’ internationalization).
These are the directions I single out for major focus in A-shares next year.
Q5: Your report forecasts the performance of major asset classes—still bullish on A-shares, broad opportunities for commodities, choppy bonds, etc. For the average investor, how would you suggest allocating among stocks, bonds, commodities, FX?
Xiong Yuan: The answer varies by investor:
If you have limited funds—just 10,000 or 20,000 RMB—it’s not advisable to make overly complex allocations among major asset classes. Given a small capital base, over-diversification dilutes returns; better to focus on the asset class you understand best, and study its logic closely.
If you have more capital, or are an institutional investor, then asset allocation brings more value—rotating between asset classes can improve risk/return.
Category by category:
For equities, I prefer the barbell strategy of tech plus high-dividend stocks—mixing high-growth tech with steady, cash-flowing assets, and rotating between them as market rhythm dictates.
Bonds: separate domestic and overseas.
Domestic bonds—I have a rhyme for easy recall. To judge bond performance and interest rates, look at five factors: economy, prices, monetary policy, allocation demand, and regulatory stance.
Currently, none point to a major up- or down-move in rates, so I see domestic bonds as range-bound.
Overseas, especially US Treasuries—I am more optimistic. If the Fed cycle falls into place, US bond yields will likely fall further, lifting prices.
Currency: I am neutral to bearish on the dollar, and mildly bullish on the RMB.
At phases, the RMB to USD could strengthen below 7, even stay there at times, but whether that’s permanent remains to be seen—too early to be conclusive.
Commodities: lots of variety, but overall plenty of opportunity.
Precious metals trade on dollar weakness, credit worries, and global uncertainty.
Some ferrous and energy products depend more on domestic policy and supply-side constraints.
Copper and some smaller metals are closely tied to computing power, AI, etc.
Others are priced according to geopolitical games and trade friction.
Overall, for retail investors, stocks and commodities are the most attractive for flexibility. For institutions, bonds and FX also have allocation value.
Q6: You've been emphasizing lately that “the macro environment remains the market's friend, be a little optimistic, ride the trend,” and “corrections are opportunities.” What are you really trying to convey? With so much noise, how should individuals stay on the main line?
Xiong Yuan: I’ve been writing these lines since April/May. Mainly applies to equities and commodities (bond and FX logic is different).
Why is “macro the market’s friend”? As above—externally, loose US liquidity and the tech supercycle; internally, China’s resilient economy, rising competitiveness, flexible policy, and the intent to build A-shares as a wealth vehicle. None of these supports have reversed.
So, “corrections are opportunities”—in plain language: buy big on big drops, buy a little on small drops, buy on continued drops, don’t buy if there’s no drop. The precondition is this applies to the medium-term of one to two years—not that you should always dive in on every small fluctuation.
Also, note that every November and December, unless there are major events or policy catalysts, markets often get range-bound—as institutions do year-end settlements, rebalancing, and new deployments. So, at year-end, see corrections as opportunities but also understand range-trading is the “norm”—don’t overinterpret.
It's similar with commodities; I’m also overall optimistic for next year, so big pullbacks should also be seen as positioning opportunities.
Bonds are a separate logic, but similar conclusion: currently, single-sided moves are unlikely. If yields suddenly spike, it could be a bond-buying opportunity.
So, “macro is a friend, correction is an opportunity” really means:
First, think mid-term—don’t be scared by short-term moves;
Second, the main line remains equities and commodities—short-term range is the rhythm, not the end.
Consumption and real estate are sectors all investors have “personal experience” with, and are also where views diverge most. They affect not just the market, but sentiment as well.
Q7: Finally, let’s discuss two sectors: consumption and real estate. There have been many stimulus policies for consumption this year (e.g., trade-in programs); is there further room for recovery next year? For real estate, which is highly debated, when can we expect a real stabilization?
Xiong Yuan: Note I’m discussing the macro trends, not necessarily how these sectors perform in the stock market.
From a macroeconomic viewpoint, if next year both consumption and real estate merely “stabilize,” that is already an ideal result.
For real estate: In recent months, investment, sales, and prices have been falling faster, with a steeper slope. If next year can “narrow the decline,” or “stabilize,” that’s already positive—i.e., a gentler rate of decline.
Stabilization does not automatically mean a major rally in property stocks. That also depends on listed company clear-outs, asset quality, and profitability.
In the short term, I do think over the coming months, more policy support is needed—otherwise, if this steep decline is not checked, it could harm the economy and financial system. From this perspective, there may be value in “policy plays” on the property sector. But for a true turn in earnings or a return to strongly rising prices, there’s not yet enough evidence.
For consumption: Over the past year or so, consumption data was largely propped up by subsidies such as trade-ins. If we look at the aggregates, a dramatic jump in retail statistics next year is unlikely.
That said, I’m not pessimistic—there will certainly be structural opportunities. For example, a famous beverage brand recently had long lines for a promotion; such cases imply that even with flat total demand, new-tag, new-use, new-play consumption formats can still run far ahead. So, my view: aggregate growth will be flat, but many standout structural cases will emerge.
In short: macro data for next year’s consumption and real estate can be described as “strive to stabilize”; in the stock market, investors need to be selective, not count on across-the-board rallies.
Q8: Looking ahead to 2026, how to “ride the trend”? If you could give only one piece of advice?
Xiong Yuan: If I could give only one suggestion: if you still have some spare cash in your pocket, in the next year or two, consider focusing more on stocks and commodities—you may be surprised on the upside.
To be more specific: I’m speaking mainly about A-shares. Other global equity assets have opportunities, but today we’re focusing on A-shares.
Let me summarize my view of A-shares for the coming years with a rhyme:
Listen to the Party, follow the government, but respect market rules.
In other words, three layers:
First, at the national level, it is clear China wants to build A-shares as a “steady, long-term, and healthy bull market” to increase household equity wealth;
Second, in reality, whether industrial competitiveness, the policy toolkit, or economic fundamentals, all the elements are there to support this direction;
Third, on the investor side, to “ride the trend” in this big cycle, have confidence but also respect market rules, and manage structure and timing well.
So my core view: in the next year or two, from a medium-term angle, A-shares are worth more confidence than in recent years. As long as you are on the right side of the macro trend and fine-tune structure and timing, you can share in the upside.
Host's summary: Three sentences for 2026
First: Trend continues—A-shares remain in the “triple-cycle resonance” corridor.
The tech cycle, policy cycle, and industrial competitiveness have seen no directional reversal.
Second: Direction is clear—Tech and Going Global will be the definitive pricing anchors for the next two years.
Third: Don't worry about rhythm—next year’s range-trading is process, not outcome. From a medium-term view, corrections are strategic opportunities.
The above content is from the 【Wallstreetcn Masterclass Annual Membership】live broadcast column “Masters Guest Room.”
For more information about Masterclass benefits, please click here or the image below
Risk Reminder: The Masterclass selects compliant third-party professionals to teach investment research courses on the platform. The content does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific product or investment advice. The views expressed in the course are for learning and reference only, do not represent Wallstreetcn's opinions or views, nor do they address users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. The market is volatile and uncertain. The platform is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of relying on course opinions or information. Investment involves risk, please make decisions cautiously. ```