Have it both ways? Shede Spirits faces performance pressure and expansion dilemma

``` In the context of the baijiu industry entering a phase of "squeezed stock competition" and increasingly rational consumption, Shede Spirits, a well-known Sichuan baijiu company that once returned to the capital stage through its "vintage liquor strategy," is now facing multiple challenges such as performance pressure, channel volatility, and management turnover. According to the recently disclosed financial report, Shede Spirits achieved a revenue of 4.419 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.51%; net profit attributable to the parent was only 223 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 35.51%. The performance is showing a clear "cooling down quarter by quarter" trend. Net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was still 346 million yuan, but by the third quarter it was only 28.73 million yuan, and the fourth quarter even saw a net loss of 249 million yuan. In terms of product structure, mid-to-high-end liquor (such as Wisdom Shede and Taste Shede) had full-year revenue of 3.12 billion yuan, down 23.83% year-on-year; regular liquor (such as Tuopai Special Grade T68) revenue was 733 million yuan, up 5.75% year-on-year. The combination of declining high-end products and limited gross profit of regular liquor made the profit gap difficult to fill. According to the equity incentive assessment targets disclosed by Shede Spirits at the beginning of the year, in 2025, revenue needs to grow by 20% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent needs to grow by 164%, corresponding to targets of 6.428 billion yuan and 913 million yuan respectively. The final completion rates were only 68.7% and 24.4%, showing a significant gap between business expectations and market reality. Channels are also turbulent. Wholesale and agency income was 3.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.19%; 516 distributors exited, leading to a net decrease of 138 to 2,525 distributors. The company's e-commerce channel achieved sales revenue of 603.593 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.46%, becoming one of the few highlights in the financial report. However, with baijiu consumption still dominated by offline banquets, online growth is still insufficient to reverse the overall situation. Shortly before the financial report was disclosed, the company announced the resignation of Vice President Wang Yong. In the five years since the Fosun Group took control, Shede Spirits’ core management team has undergone frequent changes, and Wang Yong’s resignation has further exacerbated market concerns about its execution stability. Despite facing multiple challenges, the board of directors is still determined to send positive signals to shareholders. According to the 2025 profit distribution plan, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3.1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total expected cash payout of about 102 million yuan, accounting for 45.67% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent. On the strategic level, Shede Spirits continues to maintain the narrative direction of the “vintage liquor strategy.” In its annual report, the company clearly stated that it will focus on traditional advantage markets such as Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China, and gradually promote the national layout of the brand. The company has built a dual-brand matrix centered on “Shede” and “Tuopai,” aiming to build “Shede” into the No. 1 brand in the vintage liquor category while driving “Tuopai” to sink into the most cost-effective popular premium liquor brand. However, this strategy of “wanting both high-end premiumization and mass volume” faces huge resource allocation challenges in an era of stock competition. From the perspective of regional distribution, in 2025 provincial market revenue decreased by 20.19% year-on-year, and out-of-province market revenue decreased by 19.25% year-on-year. Amid the industry’s destocking cycle, Shede Spirits stands at a crossroads between holding its home base and expanding outward — truly at a crossroads of “to give or to gain.” Risk warning and disclaimer The market involves risks and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their particular circumstances. Investment based on this information is at your own risk. ```