High Growth in Imports and Exports: Four Major Expectation Gaps
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Event: On May 9, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export data for April. Exports (in USD terms) year-on-year were 14.1%, expected 7.1%, previous value 2.5%; imports (in USD terms) year-on-year were 25.3%, expected 14%, previous value 27.8%.
1. Core Viewpoint: The “Four Major Expectation Gaps” in Imports and Exports
Expectation Gap 1: The main cause of the “zigzag” fluctuations in exports in the first quarter was the misalignment of the Spring Festival holidays, rather than changes in external demand prosperity; after the disruption of Spring Festival faded, April exports returned to levels matching external demand. Our earlier reports have continuously emphasized that the “Spring Festival misalignment” affects exports for about one and a half months around the holiday, resulting in “zigzag” fluctuations in exports in the first quarter each year. The drop in export growth rate to 2.5% in March was not due to weakening prosperity, but due to Spring Festival misalignment; adjusted figures for March show 23.9%. This disruption faded in April, and the export year-on-year figure returned to the vicinity of genuine prosperity (14.1%). In terms of external demand, the global manufacturing PMI in April rose 1.3 percentage points from March to 52.6%, with both the US and Europe/UK manufacturing seeing recovery, and foreign trade port cargo throughput maintained a high growth rate of 11.9%.
Expectation Gap 2: The previously weakest performing consumer goods exports rebounded significantly, possibly reflecting the “supply substitution” effect of consumer goods and tariff easing leading to increased US consumer goods imports. Based on Spring Festival-adjusted data (same hereafter), looking at products, the largest rebounds were in light industrial products (up 13.4 percentage points to -4.2%), including toys (up 17.3 percentage points to -12.4%), furniture and parts thereof (up 15.7 percentage points to -3.6%), textile yarns (up 14.3 percentage points to 1.0%), and plastic products (up 13.3 percentage points to 8.0%). One reason may be high oil prices impacting production in the EU and ASEAN, leading to renewed “supply substitution” in China’s consumer goods exports; another is that previous tariffs led to US consumer goods imports excessively depleting inventory, significantly below domestic consumption needs, and although US consumption data was average in April, imports showed a “gap-filling” rebound. In country-specific data, export growth to the US rebounded by 22.5 percentage points to 11.3%, and to the EU remained at a high level of 13.4%.
Expectation Gap 3: Previously strong-performing midstream exports started showing signs of weakening, possibly reflecting effects of high oil prices disrupting overseas production; but exports in the AI sector remain at a high growth rate. After Spring Festival adjustment, previously robust producer goods exports in April showed a decline, such as automotive machinery (down 13.1 percentage points to 10.1%), energy resources (down 7.1 percentage points to -0.2%). Among them, ships (down 79.2 percentage points to -14.7%), ceramic products (down 47.6 percentage points to -55.9%), steel (down 12.7 percentage points to -8.2%), and machinery/equipment (down 6.4 percentage points to -3.4%) showed sharp drops in export growth, possibly reflecting the impact of Middle East events on overseas economies, dragging down China's producer goods exports; exports to ASEAN (down 13.9 percentage points to 15.2%), EU (down 17.9 percentage points to 13.4%) also weakened. In comparison, AI exports, though declined, remained high, e.g. integrated circuits (down 24.4 percentage points to 99.6%), automatic data processing equipment and parts (down 18.8 percentage points to 47.3%).
Expectation Gap 4: AI trends also drive up imports significantly; under these circumstances, growth stabilization policies will not retreat due to strong exports, since net exports are actually falling. Apart from driving exports, AI trends also significantly impact imports, with April imports (USD-denominated) still growing strongly year-on-year (25.3%). On the product level, AI-related imports remain robust: integrated circuits, automatic data processing equipment and parts, etc., rose by 1.0 and 60.4 percentage points respectively to 54.7% and 90.6%. Electromechanical product imports also strengthened, up 7.6 percentage points year-on-year to 33.5%. Bulk commodities like crude oil and soybeans performed well, rising by 17.6 and 29.4 percentage points from March to 13.2% and 49.3%, possibly related to improved domestic investment demand.
Outlook: Supported by the triple factors of the AI revolution, the “supply substitution” effect, and tariff easing promoting rebound in consumer goods imports in Europe and the US, overall exports may retain strong resilience, but structural divergence could intensify. With disruptions from Middle East events, export numbers may decline, especially in previously strong midstream sectors such as machinery, chemicals, and mineral metals; however, “supply substitution” effects from Chinese manufacturing may persist, potentially driving consumer goods exports to exceed expectations. Also, due to previous tariff impacts, consumer goods imports in developed economies were significantly below consumption demand, so even if consumption weakens overseas, tariff easing may drive “gap-filling” growth in consumer goods imports. At the same time, the AI revolution is reshaping import cycles in developed economies and accelerating industrialization in emerging economies, jointly supporting China’s exports. Overall, exports are expected to remain resilient throughout the year, though structural divergence may intensify. (See: “Will exports repeat the 2025 scenario?”).
2. Routine Tracking: April Exports and Imports Remain Resilient
For consumer goods, consumer electronics exports declined while light industrial products rebounded. According to the customs' data for key commodities in April, consumer electronics export growth rate dropped significantly (-18.2 percentage points to 53.2%), component-wise, LCD panel modules (-27.3 percentage points to -3.5%), integrated circuits (-24.4 percentage points to 99.6%), automatic data processing equipment and parts (-18.8 percentage points to 47.3%) all declined notably. April light industrial product exports gained (+13.4 percentage points to -4.2%), with toys (+17.3 percentage points to -12.4%), furniture and parts (+15.7 percentage points to -3.6%), textile yarns (+14.3 percentage points to 1.0%) recovering markedly.
Capital goods, intermediates, and energy resource export growth rates all declined. In capital goods, ship exports (-79.2 percentage points to -14.7%) saw large drops, general machinery (-6.4 percentage points to -3.4%), medical instruments and equipment (-0.9 percentage points to 14.8%) also declined. For intermediates, integrated circuit export growth dropped (-24.4 percentage points to 99.6%), while auto parts export growth edged up (+0.3 percentage points to 6.6%). In energy resources, export growth fell (-7.1 percentage points to -0.2%), with ceramics (-47.6 percentage points to -55.9%), refined oil (-19.5 percentage points to -7.5%) falling sharply; rare earths (+171.3 percentage points to 196.5%) saw large gains, and plastic products (+13.3 percentage points to 8.0%) also edged up.
By country, export growth to the US rebounded sharply, while growth to other countries all declined. For developed economies, export growth to the US (+22.5 percentage points to 11.3%) rebounded sharply, but EU (-17.9 percentage points to 13.4%), UK (-15.4 percentage points to 9.6%) saw declines. Among emerging economies and regions, Russia (-20.1 percentage points to 25.7%), ASEAN (-13.9 percentage points to 15.2%), Latin America (-2.6 percentage points to 13.7%) all saw export growth drop.
April import growth remained high, with large gains in AI-related imports. April imports (USD) year-on-year fell 2.5 percentage points to 25.3%. Specifically, growth in electromechanical product imports picked up (+7.6 percentage points to 33.5%), with automatic data processing equipment and parts (+60.4 percentage points to 90.6%) showing large increases. Among commodities, crude oil (+17.6 percentage points to 13.2%), soybeans (+29.4 percentage points to 49.3%) picked up, while iron ore (-9.9 percentage points to 2.8%), copper (-50.4 percentage points to 16.3%) imports dropped.
Source: Shenwan Hongyuan Research
Tu Qiang, Senior Macro Analyst
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Date of Publication: 2026.05.09
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