Highlights of the humanoid robot market in 2026? Morgan Stanley: Short-term speculation will continue, Tesla is the focus, the US government and major companies will enter the scene, but the gap between China and the US is widening.

Highlights of the humanoid robot market in 2026? Morgan Stanley: Short-term speculation will continue, Tesla is the focus, the US government and major companies will enter the scene, but the gap between China and the US is widening.

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Author of this article: Ye Huiwen

Source: Hard AI

On December 19, Morgan Stanley stated in its latest research report that although the market popularity of humanoid robots will continue to rise in 2026, investors should be wary of the huge gap between "robots that can dance" and robots with scalable practical value.

The firm believes that short-term market hype will persist, but the industry may soon face a correction due to the difficulty of physical AI development, manufacturing barriers, and the reshuffling of startups.

In terms of specific market catalysts, the release of Tesla Optimus Gen 3 and the potential formal entry of tech giants into the robotics field will be the core focus at the start of 2026. According to Politico, the US government is planning new policies to accelerate the development of its domestic robotics industry. US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and the Trump administration are reportedly "going all out" to support the sector, with potential executive orders possibly extending beyond tax subsidies, aiming to incentivize private investment through various means to meet competition.

Despite US efforts on the policy front, Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the gap between China and the US in this area is widening at an accelerated pace. With its almost undisputed manufacturing advantage, China continues to consolidate its leading position, and "embodied intelligence" has been listed as one of six breakthrough industries in China's 15th Five-Year Plan proposals. Even so, Chinese National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Li Chao has warned of "bubble" risks in the sector, noting that while capital is pouring in, proven real-use cases remain scarce.

In terms of market performance, the Humanoid 100 Index compiled by Morgan Stanley has risen 25% since its establishment in February 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, and MSCI Europe and China indices. As global robotics companies move from labs to the real world, the divergence between winners and laggards will become more pronounced, with capital and talent concentrating in firms that demonstrate the strongest in-house AI capability and manufacturing expertise.

Short-term Hype Continues vs. Technological Reality

Morgan Stanley analysts warn that although enthusiasm for humanoid robots will surge wave after wave in 2026, investors should focus on the bigger picture.

In the short term, the release of Tesla Optimus Gen 3, breakthroughs in hardware and AI technology, and statements from major tech companies about physical AI will further boost market sentiment. However, the industry may subsequently undergo a "reset" as the market gradually realizes the difficulties of developing physical AI models, manufacturing obstacles, and the pressure facing startups to reshuffle.

In terms of technological maturity, the firm especially advises investors to remain cautious about "autonomy." Achieving full autonomy for humanoid robots is very difficult; if a demonstration is not clearly labeled as "autonomous," investors should assume it is teleoperated. Using teleoperation for data collection and training is a necessary path toward autonomous robots, but this isn't necessarily a red flag—it's just that 2026 is not yet a year when robots can be assumed to have fully autonomous capabilities.

Tech Giants Entering and US Policy Shifts

2026 will be a battleground not only for startups but also a crucial year for tech giants to vie for new growth drivers.

Morgan Stanley predicts that at least one major tech company or leading AI lab (such as Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon, OpenAI, etc.) will formally announce plans to build robots. As these companies seek new Total Addressable Markets (TAM) to support their AI-driven high valuations, entering the robot hardware field will be a likely event.

On the policy front, Politico reports that Raimondo and the current US administration are seeking to accelerate the development of the US robotics industry through potential executive orders. Regardless of the final policy results—whether tax subsidies, government procurement, or regulatory reforms—it is expected the US government will use multiple channels to send signals to support the domestic robotics industry.

This is similar to moves in the rare earths and drone sectors in the past year, aiming to stimulate private investment and technological development.

China Consolidates Manufacturing Advantage and Regulatory Warnings

Though US policy support has intensified, Morgan Stanley points out that China continues to consolidate its leading position through its core advantage—manufacturing. At present, almost every major Chinese automobile and consumer electronics company is in some way connected to humanoid robots or AI-powered robots.

Meanwhile, Chinese regulators have also noticed signs of overheating in the industry.

In response to media questions about the sector "cooling down," National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Li Chao stated that all emerging industries, including humanoid robotics, need to balance development speed with potential "bubbles." Currently, more than 150 companies operate in this area; while actual application cases are still few, investment is pouring in. It is expected that the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will introduce further guidelines.

The primary market remains active from the end of 2025 into early 2026.

According to Bloomberg, AI robotics startup Physical Intelligence raised $600 million in funding at a $5.6 billion valuation, led by Alphabet's CapitalG. Reuters also reports that Skild AI is in talks with SoftBank and Nvidia, seeking to raise over $1 billion at a valuation of about $14 billion. In addition, Deep Robotics, a competitor to Unitree, raised around $70 million.

On the product side, major manufacturers are making frequent moves. Tesla showcased an improved Optimus hardware, with video showing it running smoothly in the lab with articulated toes, laying the foundation for the Gen 3 launch in early 2026. Midea Group introduced the "super humanoid robot" MIRO U with six arms, aiming to raise factory output by about 30% through multitasking. Meanwhile, Norwegian company 1X announced a deal with EQT Ventures to deliver 10,000 NEO humanoid robots to factories and warehouses, marking a significant expansion of use cases from homes to the industrial field.

Long-Term Market Space Outlook

Morgan Stanley maintains its huge long-term market expectations for the industry. According to its global robotics model forecast, by 2050, annual revenue in the global humanoid robotics market could reach $7.5 trillion. Assuming a replacement cycle of 6 years and average prices falling as supply chains mature, some 24.4 million humanoid robots may be adopted globally by 2036, rising to 1 billion units by 2050.

In high-income countries, the average price of humanoid robots is expected to drop from $200,000 in 2024 to about $75,000 in 2050. In middle- and low-income countries, benefiting from mass production and localized supply chains, the average price is set to be lower, falling from about $50,000 now to roughly $21,000 in 2050, greatly boosting global adoption and application.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account any individual user's specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ```