HOKA's slowing-down metaphor: How the "middle-class running shoe" moved from the racetrack to the shopping mall

In 2025, as the popularity of trail running events continues to surge, HOKA—dubbed one of the “three essentials of the new middle class”—must now face market scrutiny as its growth stalls.

According to the financial report as of September 30, HOKA’s net sales grew by 11.1%, reaching $634.1 million.

This means that after briefly bouncing back to over 20% last quarter, the growth engine is once again showing signs of fatigue.

The market’s missed expectations for HOKA’s growth essentially stem from the brand’s own high growth momentum.

From fiscal year 2018 to 2024, HOKA’s revenue increased from $150 million to $1.81 billion, with a six-year revenue CAGR of 51%, and its share of parent company Deckers Brands’ revenue rose from 8% to 42%.

However, this once rapidly rising star brand is showing signs of slowing growth this year.

For the quarter ended March 31, its sales grew only 10% year-on-year, reaching $586 million. In the previous three quarters, HOKA’s net sales growth rates were 29.7%, 34.7%, and 23.7% respectively.

In fact, China’s outdoor sports market still enjoys channel and brand dividends.

The gradual adoption by the general public has shifted the core of outdoor competition from professional sponsorship on the field to flagship shopping malls in first-tier cities. Malls like MixC, Taikoo Li, and Hang Lung have become key locations for sports brands’ expansion.

The growth logic of “newcomers” like HOKA will soon shift: the importance of brand depth and channel efficiency will rise significantly.

Newcomers Slowing Down

Compared to On Running, HOKA’s pressure appears even greater.

Both brands are similar in terms of founding date, brand background, and their timing of entering the Chinese market, and both have successfully “gone viral” through distinctive design and fashion trends.

On’s growth has also slowed but maintained 37.2% growth in the first half, with net sales in Asia-Pacific surging 114.8% year-on-year to 240 million Swiss francs.

Changes in market environment and channel structure are partly responsible for this gap.

According to Don Xiaotang, an independent fashion industry analyst at No Agency, recent quarters have seen uncertain trade conditions and brands like Nike strengthening cooperation with top retailers, affecting HOKA’s wholesale channel performance. Although the China market wasn’t affected, its limited global share makes it hard to reverse the overall trend.

In comparison, On’s channel structure is more balanced—about 40% of revenue comes from direct retail, which is about 10 percentage points higher than Deckers, HOKA’s parent company.

Don Xiaotang points out: “One characteristic of relying on wholesale channels is performance volatility due to the order cycle, which explains why HOKA only achieved 20% growth last quarter.”

HOKA’s parent company Deckers Group believes consumers will be more cautious in the second half of the year and expects brand sales to achieve low double-digit growth of 10%–15% for the financial year.

The relatively conservative outlook mainly stems from tariff pressures and product price increases in the US market.

In the longer term, slowing growth signals a shift in brand growth models.

The rapid growth of these new brands in the past was thanks, on the one hand, to differentiated design, and on the other, to market opportunities left by strategic adjustments of industry giants.

For example, around 2017, Nike and Adidas shifted to DTC models and reduced cooperation with wholesale channels, giving emerging brands like HOKA room to grow and space on store shelves.

HOKA is recognized for its ultra-thick midsole functional design, capturing the “ugly shoe” trend in recent years. Its pricing is above mainstream brands for similar products, thus occupying a vacant price band.

UBS analysts point out that expanding into apparel, increasing direct retail share, and deepening the Asia-Pacific presence may be HOKA’s future direction.

However, Don Xiaotang told Xin Feng that diversification strategies should be weighed carefully: “Stressing category breakthroughs could imply that a single category cannot support the brand by itself. In fact, running shoes currently are still seeing rapidly rising penetration.”

Running shoes, the largest subdivision of functional sports shoes, remain in a positive market environment, and HOKA’s focus—trail running—also stays active.

In 2024, the number of trail races held and scheduled in China reached 505, compared to just 65 a decade earlier.

During this process, HOKA has established a significant first-mover advantage.

As one of the international brands to bet early on the Chinese trail running market, HOKA founded the “HOKA ONE ONE China Elite Team” in its second year in China, actively building up professional event resources.

In 2024, among all trail running shoe brands worn across race categories, the top three were Kailas FUGA, HOKA, and Salomon—together accounting for over 80% market share.

However, among the “three essentials of the new middle class”—HOKA, On Running, and Salomon—HOKA is seen as taking the slowest steps towards becoming a fashion brand.

On Running has already collaborated with LOEWE five times, releasing dozens of apparel lines and expanding deeply into clothing while injecting high-end fashion DNA into its brand; Salomon is an experienced operator in collaborations and fashionization, continually boosting its market presence.

At a recent earnings meeting, Deckers Brands President and CEO Stefano Caroti revealed HOKA’s future product direction: the brand will focus on running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle, and accelerate apparel development as new engines for growth.

China will undoubtedly be at the core of its growth strategy.

From Track to Mall

The key for niche brands to break the ceiling and maintain high growth is continued “breaking the circle”—expanding to wider scenes, categories, and channels.

Among all methods of breaking the circle, flagship stores stand out for their visibility and immediate influence.

Over the past year, HOKA has continued to reinforce its strategy with self-operated stores, focusing on Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, and Shenzhen, radiating into East, North, Southwest, and South China markets.

This May, HOKA opened its largest-ever flagship experience center in Shanghai—a three-story, 1,600-square-meter store. In August, Beijing hosted the world’s first standalone limited-time Mafate series store, while the Chengdu concept store was updated in tandem. In September, South China’s first flagship concept store opened in Shenzhen.

HOKA now has more stores in China than in any other market worldwide.

The current 28 self-operated stores are all in the five key cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Suzhou, with half in Beijing and Shanghai.

HOKA is not alone. “All brands aspiring to succeed in China are ramping up DTC,” Don Xiaotang told Xin Feng.

According to Du Bin, Secretary General of the Brand Professional Committee of the Shanghai Shopping Mall Association, since 2023, outdoor sports brands have accelerated entry into first floors of shopping malls, taking up prime spaces formerly occupied by fast fashion and beauty anchor stores.

Savills’ research department surveyed Shanghai shopping centers: by June 2025, sports and outdoor brands will account for 10% of retail formats, up 1.1 percentage points from last year.

There are significant differences in channel structure and consumption logic in China’s outdoor sports market versus overseas.

On CEO Martin Hoffmann once pointed out that in many countries, On has strong high-end wholesale distribution networks, like Foot Locker and JD Sports in the US. But this model does not exist in China.

In terms of target groups and consumption drivers, the Chinese market also shows clear characteristics.

According to Yu Xuhui, analyst at Changjiang Securities, mass consumer spending is now splitting into “high cost-effectiveness” and “high quality.” Consumers are more inclined to choose brands that represent their “personal label.” Sports products have become key vehicles for middle-class groups to express lifestyles and value statements.

For mid-to-high-end outdoor brands, stores and experience spaces serve not just to sell, but crucially to support a premium brand image and strengthen brand influence in public perception.

So far, this direction is getting a positive response from channels.

Du Bin told Xin Feng that when high-end malls screen outdoor brands, the primary consideration is whether the brand’s pricing matches the mall’s positioning. When several brands compete for one spot, reputation and traffic become the decisive factors.

“Currently, there are only a few outdoor brands with high recognition,” Du Bin said. “Malls ideally want to bring them all together. The best is to have Salomon, On, and HOKA at once.”

In wider regions, HOKA expands through partnerships with agents and distributors.

For example, in 2023, HOKA partnered with Topsports, China's largest sports goods retailer, to open stores in second-tier markets such as Qingdao.

Still, as all brands ramp up large-scale experience stores, the experiential content must keep innovating to draw repeated visits from consumers, or the hefty upfront investment could become a new burden.

On Running, also rapidly opening stores and actively marketing in China, saw its net profit plunge 87% in the first half, with net profit margin down from 14% to 1.1%.

Beyond losses from exchange rates disclosed in official reports, it is widely believed that rising store costs and rapidly growing marketing expenses have started to dampen On’s profitability.

After all, opening stores is just a means; ultimately, sustained footfall and repeat purchases keep a store healthy in the long run.

Now, the market is shifting from outdoor trail to city road running, with middle-class-oriented running shoe brands set to contend in wider scenarios. Competition dimensions are expanding, and brand strength, product adaptability, and user loyalty will all be put to the test.

For HOKA and other middle-class running shoe brands, the critical moment may have arrived.

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