Hormuz traffic tracking, day ten: only 3 oil tankers passed, LNG ships zero passage for ten consecutive days

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its tenth day, with the number of passing ships still far below normal levels, and energy markets remain under pressure. The latest tracking data from Morgan Stanley show no substantial signs of easing in the situation.

According to Morgan Stanley’s daily tracking report released on March 10, only about three crude oil and refined product tankers exited the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz that day, with zero LNG and LPG ships passing through, while the normal level is about 35 vessels. Meanwhile, Trump announced on Monday evening that sanctions on "certain countries" may be lifted, adding new variables to the situation.

The interruption of the strait has triggered supply response measures within the region. Saudi Aramco stated that flows through the east-west pipeline will reach maximum capacity "within a few days," and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's refinery in Ruwais—with a daily capacity of 817,000 barrels—has reportedly begun shutdown procedures after a drone strike.

On the demand side, India announced reductions in natural gas supply to non-priority sectors and requested refineries to prioritize LPG supply. Pakistan has ordered the closure of government offices and schools to conserve energy.

Tanker traffic remains exceptionally subdued

Morgan Stanley data show that actual tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz for the day was less than one-tenth of the normal level. Notably, some ships have turned off their AIS automatic identification system signal, implying the real number may be underestimated, but Morgan Stanley analysts believe that any substantial recovery in flows should be reflected in tracked data.

In terms of loading data, since the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, new crude oil loadings bound for major importing countries have significantly shrunk. However, Yanbu port's daily loadings have rebounded to about 2–2.5 million barrels, and export volumes from Fujairah have also started to recover, showing the gradual positive impact of alternative pipelines and export routes.

Freight rates have slightly declined but remain at historic highs

Tanker freight rates have seen marginal declines after staying elevated, but overall levels are still near historic peaks. In particular, freight rates for the TD22 route (US to China) fell slightly from Monday’s $92 per ton to $89 per ton for the day.

Morgan Stanley points out that the high volatility in freight rates reflects considerable uncertainty about when the strait will fully reopen. For refiners and traders relying on Persian Gulf oil supplies, procurement cost pressure is unlikely to ease in the short term.

Natural gas prices plunge, refined product crack spreads retreat from highs

Energy prices have diverged in their trends. Europe’s benchmark TTF front-month contract closed down 17% at €47 per megawatt-hour, with the TTF forward curve shifting further downward as market expectations for mid-term gas prices are revised.

Meanwhile, crack spreads for refined products narrowed in trading but remain relatively elevated. Northwest European diesel and jet fuel crack spreads have receded from previous peaks but haven’t reversed decisively, indicating refinery margins are still quite robust.

Geopolitical signals and infrastructure risks coexist

Trump announced Monday that he’s considering easing sanctions on "certain countries"; outsiders generally view this as a potential diplomatic breakthrough amid current tensions, but details and scope remain unclear, and its real impact on the market needs to be seen.

At the infrastructure level, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's Ruwais refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 817,000 barrels, reportedly began shutdown procedures following a drone strike, further reducing refinery capacity west of the strait.

Saudi Aramco said east-west pipelines will reach maximum flow "within a few days," which could partly offset export gaps caused by blocked strait channels.

Morgan Stanley stated that due to ongoing disruption, it plans to extend daily tracking reports for another week, continuing to monitor ship transit, freight rate trends, and key events.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarket risks exist, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular situation. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.