Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have prompted the United States to warn of a "rapid escalation," and Saudi Arabia has urgently sought assistance from multiple countries.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have prompted the United States to warn of a "rapid escalation," and Saudi Arabia has urgently sought assistance from multiple countries.

The military conflict between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia could "escalate rapidly," and coupled with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global energy transport is facing the most severe double-chokehold situation in decades.

According to Xinhua News Agency , the U.S. embassies in several Middle Eastern countries issued new security alerts on the 19th, stating that the Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched a new round of attacks on Saudi Arabia, and that the military conflict could "escalate rapidly." They advised Americans in the Middle East to "remain highly vigilant" and prepare for possible travel disruptions.

According to Wall Street News , the Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement on the 19th, saying that they launched two military operations that day against "sensitive targets" in the Saudi capital Riyadh and Saudi Aramco's facilities in Yanbu, using a large number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones.

According to Xinhua News Agency , citing reports from the Associated Press and other media outlets, Saudi Arabia has requested air defense support from France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt to help defend against missiles and drones launched by the Houthis and other armed groups. An official stated that the reason for seeking assistance from these countries is that Saudi Arabia's main ally and arms supplier, the United States, is preoccupied with its own problems, as its own interceptor missile stockpile has significantly decreased due to the conflict with Iran.

The report quoted officials as saying that Saudi Arabia is currently in a "very difficult situation," needing to protect not only military bases and important government facilities, but also oil facilities across the country. According to a report in the Nikkei on the 19th, to avoid oil supply disruptions, Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil exporters, has even made a rare request for assistance to Israel, with which it has no diplomatic relations.

According to data from the Baltic Exchange, on September 18, the daily charter rate for the VLCC benchmark route TD3C had surged to $1.241 million, a level that shipbroker Gibson described as "unprecedented." Analysts point out that the "dual strait chokehold" situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, coupled with the attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline and its subsequent shutdown, is putting extreme pressure on global energy transportation.

The alliance system is weakening, and the commitments of the Mecca Agreement remain unresolved.

Faced with this predicament, Saudi Arabia is pinning its hopes on the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement signed in August. This agreement stipulates that any armed attack on any of the three countries—Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan—will be considered an attack on all three.

As of the 19th, Turkish Foreign Minister Fedan stated that Turkey would honor its commitments and might provide military and technical assistance, while Pakistani military spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said that Pakistan would spare no effort, "diplomatically and in practical action," to protect Saudi security. However, neither country has proposed a specific military support plan.

Analysts point out that the agreement is still pending formal ratification by the three countries, and its terms are not yet legally binding. Given the differences in the three countries' military capabilities and strategic interests, it remains to be seen whether political commitments can translate into actual military coordination. On the same day, Feidan also emphasized that for Saudi Arabia, becoming part of a US-Iran conflict is "unacceptable."

As for the United States, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had previously called Trump twice to request airstrikes against the Houthis, but was refused both times. Last Saturday, Trump told the media that the Houthis "called and said they didn't want to fight us," and implied that "one country" was the Houthis' real target—clearly referring to Saudi Arabia.

A U.S. official said on the 19th that a working group of the U.S. Central Command has been working to "strengthen intelligence sharing and planning support with Saudi forces," a statement that was noticeably more restrained than direct military intervention.

With the Bab el-Mandeb Strait changing hands, Saudi Arabia has lost its strategic buffer.

Last week, the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a surprise attack and seized territory near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, opening a new front in the turbulent war between the US and Iran.

The speed of the Houthi offensive has shocked many. Despite being nominally trained, equipped, and supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the anti-Houthi forces have crumbled almost instantly in the face of this advance.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, described how, when some troops began to retreat, other soldiers assumed that those retreating "had received better intelligence from leadership," thus triggering a domino effect—"Can you imagine 60,000 soldiers simply fleeing?"

In addition, reports indicate that the Houthi rebels infiltrated their opponents' communication systems and issued false withdrawal orders.

The Houthi rebels now control the entire Red Sea coastline of Yemen, bringing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait within range of their missiles. This waterway has become a vital alternative route for Persian Gulf oil exports after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year.

Saudi Arabia began transporting crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline in March, but the pipeline was subsequently shut down by a drone attack. This puts both major export routes under pressure, leaving Saudi Arabia's energy exports facing a double whammy.

On the 19th, the Houthi rebels announced that they had launched missile and drone attacks on "sensitive targets" in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco's facilities in Yanbu, and explicitly stated that they would adhere to the policy of "responding to blockade with blockade and responding to escalation with escalation".

VLCC freight rates have seen an epic surge, putting significant pressure on the freight market.

The shipping market's reaction to the chokepoint situation between the two dams has become fully apparent.

According to Wall Street Insights , the cost of shipping a shipment of crude oil from Houston to Asia is now about $26 per barrel, or $52 million per shipment, which is about a quarter of the price of WTI crude oil futures.

Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group, one of the world's largest commodity traders, stated frankly at the Bloomberg Commodity Investors Forum:

The cost of shipping crude oil around the world has never been higher.

High freight rates are forcing global refiners to abandon long-haul cargoes and instead scramble for local supplies. The capacity shortage has spread from very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to smaller vessels, driving up freight rates across all classes.

Shipbroker Gibson points out that the unusually high freight rates in the VLCC market are mainly driven by the increasing geopolitical turmoil: the daily charter rate for TD3C has exceeded US$1.24 million. In the Atlantic market, the average daily TCE for round trips on the West Africa to China route (TD15) is about US$527,000, and the average daily TCE for round trips on the US Gulf to China route (TD22) is about US$400,000.

Gibson also noted that the market's self-correcting mechanism is kicking in: extremely high VLCC freight rates have shifted some demand to Suezmax tankers, while rising oil prices may dampen the willingness to buy crude oil.

Gibson concluded that in the short term, "disruptions remain the dominant force, providing significant support to the freight market," but the longer the abnormally high oil prices and freight rates persist, the greater the risk of demand disruption. Italy has been revealed to be planning to send up to four ships to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to ensure navigational safety, but there are currently almost no signs of a substantial easing of the situation.

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