How big is the “energy shock” of war on South Asia: Indian restaurants stop frying food, Bangladesh shuts down universities to save electricity

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The global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war with Iran is evolving into a multi-country livelihood crisis in South Asia: India’s black market price for LPG cylinders has doubled, restaurants have stopped selling fried food, and crematoriums are forced to switch to electric furnaces; Pakistan has implemented a four-day workweek and raised gasoline prices by 20%; Bangladesh has shut down all universities nationwide and canceled exams in bulk. South Asia, which is highly dependent on Gulf energy, is becoming one of the regions hardest hit by this shock to global supply.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off South Asia’s main route for importing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Persian Gulf. Although Indian Prime Minister Modi has advised the public "not to panic," hoarding, theft, and price gouging are spreading nationwide. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned in a national address: "If the situation continues to deteriorate, God forbid, these prices will become uncontrollable." The press secretary of Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, Saleh Shibly, said the Prime Minister himself has set an example: "Only half the lights are on in the office, air conditioning is off in non-emergencies, and all government agencies nationwide are implementing these economy measures."

For Bangladesh, whose economic foundations are already fragile, the timing of this supply shock is particularly sensitive. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie analyst Akshay Gupta said that the shock has "triggered comprehensive gas rationing" in the country. Bangladesh depends on imports for 95% of its energy, about half of its electricity comes from gas-fired power, and the garment industry accounts for nearly 85% of national exports — whether factories can keep running depends directly on stable energy supply.

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake also warned last week that the country’s LPG reserves "will only last about one week," as queues have been forming at fuel stations across the island. This crisis has closely bound the daily livelihood of billions of people in the South Asian subcontinent to distant geopolitical conflict, and has also fully exposed the structural vulnerability of the regional economy.

Hormuz Blockade: South Asia’s Energy Supply Chain Under Strain

South Asia’s heavy reliance on Gulf energy makes it particularly vulnerable in this crisis. India is the world’s second-largest LPG importer, with 60% of its LPG coming from UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, currently facing a severe supply gap, and New Delhi lacks adequate strategic reserves.

According to Wood Mackenzie, Pakistan’s LNG imports last year were almost entirely from Qatar; India’s share of LNG imports from Qatar exceeds half; for Bangladesh, Qatar and UAE together accounted for nearly three-quarters of last year’s LNG imports.

The short-term pressure facing Pakistan is especially specific: the six LNG shipments scheduled from QatarEnergy next month may all be missed, and QatarEnergy accounts for 90% of its LNG imports. Imported LNG is used for power generation, fertilizer production, and refining, and supply disruptions are already rippling down the industry chain.

India: LPG Black Market Prices Double, Catering and Funeral Services Hit

In India, energy shortages are seeping into every corner of daily life. The National Restaurant Association of India has advised its 500,000 members to consider shortening business hours, stop supplying dishes that require long stewing and frying, and use lids during cooking to save gas. Vijay Shetty, president of the Indian Hotels & Restaurants Association, warned that up to half of Mumbai’s hotels may be forced to close if the situation does not improve, with one-fifth already shuttered.

LPG cylinder prices have surged sharply. Vijayender Naik, manager of a Mumbai fast-food shop, said, cylinders on the black market sell for about twice the normal price, roughly 1800 rupees each. Connaught Place street tea vendor Trinath Mahto in New Delhi said his gas cost doubled within three days, jumping from 100 rupees per kg to about 250 rupees. "I haven’t raised my tea price, but I’ve reduced portions to manage pressure," he said.

In Pune, Manisha Shekatkar, chief municipal engineer in charge of city crematorium operations, said gas shortages have forced crematoriums to switch from gas furnaces to electric furnaces, "to avoid backlog of bodies." The Indian government has announced it will allow the use of higher-polluting alternatives such as coal, wood, and kerosene — previously, restaurants had warned that if new supplies did not arrive, they would be forced to close within days.

Bangladesh: Garment Industry Under Pressure, Power Outage Crisis Looms

Bangladesh faces particularly complex challenges. State energy company Petrobangla has implemented daily gas rationing across the country. The education ministry announced the closure of all public and private universities and brought forward Eid holidays as an emergency energy-saving measure. Dhaka University student leader Umama Fatema said "many exams have been cancelled." The government also ordered state fertilizer plants to suspend production for 15 days and prioritized available gas for power plants to prevent large-scale blackouts.

Shafiqul Alam, a Dhaka analyst for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, warned, Bangladesh is already using scheduled power outages to manage grid pressure, typically about two hours each time. As summer approaches, April’s peak power demand is expected to exceed 18,000 MW, and further expansion of blackouts may be needed. He said "proper planning is needed to ensure the industrial sector is not negatively affected," called for greater public awareness of energy conservation, but "don’t cause panic."

Former director Mohiuddin Rubel of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers & Exporters Association said that the crisis fully exposes structural weaknesses in the country's economic model. "Bangladeshis are very good at doing one thing, like garment manufacturing, but we lack diversification." His factories are located in the Dhaka Export Processing Zone, where power supply is secure, but he admitted that peers outside the zone face much higher blackout risks.

The crisis has also opened a diplomatic opportunity. Aninda Islam Amit of Bangladesh’s energy ministry said about 15,000 tons of diesel per month are expected to arrive from India: "Lending a hand to neighbors in a crisis is a proper courtesy."

Pakistan & Sri Lanka: Emergency Measures Roll Out

The Pakistani government announced several emergency measures: schools will be closed until the end of the month, all university courses will move online, most government agencies will implement a four-day workweek, and gasoline prices will be raised by 20%. Despite having domestic gas production, Pakistan still relies on Gulf imports for one-fifth of its gas consumption, and most rural and low-income households use LPG as their main cooking and heating fuel.

Nasir Mehmood, a ride-share driver in Islamabad, said the rises in fuel and LPG prices have strained his family finances. His hometown near Jhelum depends on LPG as the sole source for cooking and heating. "Dealers are raising prices because they expect shortages soon," he said. "If the war continues, I might have to borrow money for household needs."

Sri Lanka is also deeply stuck in LPG shortages, queues persist outside fuel stations, and both domestic users and small businesses are affected. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said last week that the island's storage capacity is limited, "only about one week's worth of LPG supply," raising widespread concerns about its ability to withstand ongoing shocks.

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