How can an agreement allow both sides to "declare victory"? The United States has made new demands, and Iran has two objectives.

The US-Iran nuclear negotiations are entering their final sprint under the dual pressures of military friction and domestic political strain. Both sides have their own objectives, and the prospects for an agreement remain uncertain.

According to Global Times, US Central Command struck the air defense missile launch base at Iran's southern Abbas port on the 25th. Iran retaliated immediately, and the two sides engaged in brief military clashes.

Meanwhile, Trump suddenly proposed new conditions, demanding that six countries, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, "immediately" join the "Abraham Accords," and hinted that Iran should also sign, adding new variables to the negotiations. According to CCTV News, US Secretary of State Rubio said on the 26th that it would take "a few more days" to finalize the wording of the agreement.

Despite the tense situation, negotiations have not been interrupted. Media reports indicate that Iran's chief negotiator Kalibaf remained in Qatar to continue consultations even after the clash, and Tehran deliberately delayed releasing information on casualties among Revolutionary Guard members to avoid derailing the talks.

Analysts believe that Trump is currently resisting pressure from Republican hawks while softening his stance on uranium transfer and at the same time suddenly presenting the grand vision of expanding the "Abraham Accords," attempting to package a limited agreement as a regional diplomatic victory. On Iran’s side, under the pressure of economic collapse, it hopes to unfreeze $24 billion in assets but is reluctant to let Trump have an "overly spectacular victory."

US Goals: Seek Greater Strategic Gains and Soothe Domestic Hawks

During the negotiation sprint, Trump faces strong pressure from within the Republican Party. Senator Ted Cruz and other hawkish figures criticize the proposed framework as "wrong," believing it is too similar to the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal—which Trump himself dismantled during his first term.

In response to criticism, Trump posted on social media, characterizing the proposed agreement as "completely opposite" to the Obama deal, and then proposed the expansion of the "Abraham Accords," demanding that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan "immediately" collectively join and normalize relations with Israel, otherwise they should not participate in US-Iran mediation. Media reports say this idea came from Trump himself, not advisers; Middle Eastern leaders were not notified in advance and were surprised when informed during calls.

According to The Paper citing analysts, Trump aims to package a limited US-Iran peace deal as a broader regional diplomatic achievement, making it easier to explain to domestic hawks. Analysts point out that promoting normalization between Gulf states and Israel may allow Trump to present any limited agreement as a "regional success" rather than a concession. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham immediately praised Trump's proposal as "simply brilliant," claiming it "would bring the greatest change to the Middle East in thousands of years."

On the nuclear issue, Trump has also made certain compromises. He previously insisted that Iran hand over highly enriched uranium directly to the US, but then softened his stance, saying enriched uranium could be "destroyed locally under IAEA supervision or at another acceptable location." Media reports say this adjustment aligns US positions closer with Iran—Iran has previously shown willingness to dilute its stockpile to low-enrichment levels and is open to transferring it to Russia.

However, Trump’s new demands have generally received a lukewarm response from Middle Eastern countries. According to The Paper, Saudi Arabia reiterated that if Palestine cannot establish a state, it would not normalize relations with Israel; Qatari officials stated there are currently no plans to join the "Abraham Accords"; Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif explicitly stated joining the accord "contradicts our fundamental principles and we cannot accept it." Ali Vaez, head of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group, commented that Trump "has merely shifted from one fantasy to another."

Iran's Goals: Prioritize Economic Relief, But Don’t Let Trump Have a "Too Spectacular Victory"

According to media citing Iranian officials and Arab mediators, Iran is pursuing two intertwined objectives in the negotiations: first, to secure financial relief for its crisis-ridden economy; second, to avoid making nuclear concessions big enough for Trump to declare "total victory."

Economic pressure is the core driver for Iran staying at the negotiating table. War and US blockades have exacerbated an already worsening economic crisis, damaging Iran's energy infrastructure, leading to fuel rationing, soaring inflation, and a continued decline in living standards. Media reports say pragmatist factions within the Iranian regime are actively pushing for an agreement to gain breathing room before economic woes morph into another wave of protests.

On the funds issue, according to Global Times, Iranian parliamentary speaker Kalibaf actively pushed for unfreezing $24 billion during his visit to Qatar, demanding half be released immediately upon the signing of a memorandum and the rest within 60 days. The report, citing Iranian and negotiating officials, says Iran is nearing a compromise plan for phased unfreezing. According to Global Times, US officials said Iranian funds would only be unfrozen after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Meanwhile, Iran's stance on nuclear issues remains tough. Global Times reports that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued instructions that enriched uranium stockpiles must not be shipped abroad. IRGC missile and drone project commander Majid Moosavi publicly said, "Negotiating with the enemy is pure loss."

The tension between hardliners and moderates within Iran also worries mediators. Media reports say mediators are working to confirm whether Iran’s current negotiation plan has Supreme Leader Khamenei and hardliners' backing or only represents the position of Foreign Minister Aragchi and moderates. Mediators are also concerned that hardliners may secretly take action in the strait to sabotage the agreement.

Nevertheless, Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani clearly stated on the 26th that the diplomatic process "will most likely continue." President Pezehiziyan of Iran spoke with Egyptian President Sisi the same day, discussing efforts to push a memorandum of understanding, seen externally as a signal Tehran still intends to maintain negotiation momentum.

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