How did quantum computing suddenly become the next battlefield for "national security"?
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Quantum computing is rapidly moving from the laboratory to the center of geopolitical games. This technology—which insiders predict may achieve major breakthroughs within as little as five years—can not only accelerate the development of life-saving drugs, but also crack all digital encryption systems in an instant. As competition between China and the United States intensifies in this field, quantum technology has become a new key national security track after semiconductors.
Recently, according to The Wall Street Journal, major publicly listed American quantum computing companies such as D-Wave Quantum Inc., Rigetti Computing Inc., IonQ Inc., and Quantum Computing Inc. may soon receive government strategic investment. Although the White House later denied discussing this with quantum computing companies, this news has reignited market optimism for quantum technology stocks.
The report states that as IonQ announced a breakthrough in achieving 99.99% gate fidelity, the industry generally believes that the critical inflection point of "quantum advantage" is only three to five years away. The approach of this technical threshold is turning quantum computing from an academic topic into a pressing national security issue.
The core national security significance of quantum computing lies in its threat to existing encryption systems. Marco Pistoia, IonQ's Senior Vice President of Global Industry Relations, warned that future attacks "on a country will likely be quantum attacks, breaking into sensitive communications of governments, banks, or medical institutions." This has prompted governments to accelerate post-quantum cryptography layouts and consider quantum technology as critical infrastructure.
At the same time, geopolitical factors are injecting urgency into quantum investment. According to a McKinsey report, China has announced over $15.3 billion in government funds for quantum technology—far surpassing the $3.2 billion invested by the US government. A report released Thursday by the BankAmerica Institute noted that the combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computing might usher in a new level of technological advancement: AI accelerates the development of quantum, while quantum provides AI with critical computing power.
Impending technological breakthroughs spark investment boom
The commercial prospects of quantum computing are rapidly emerging. Rigetti Computing CEO Subodh Kulkarni said the industry generally sees three to five years before the crucial inflection point of "quantum advantage," with some companies being even more aggressive in outlook.
Kulkarni defines quantum advantage by four criteria: at least 1,000 qubits; at least 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity; maximum gate speed of 15 nanoseconds; and some form of error correction capability. Earlier this week, IonQ announced it became "the first and only" quantum computing company to achieve 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity.
Elizabeth Goldschmidt, Professor of Physics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, pointed out that while conventional computers store information as binary bits of 0s and 1s, quantum computers use qubits, leveraging subatomic physical rules to process information in multiple states at once—allowing them to solve large-scale optimization problems that classical computers cannot.
Although companies like Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing have seen stock prices soar as much as 3,100% in the past year, they are still unprofitable because the technology hasn't reached the scale or feasibility needed for commercialization. Travis Prentice, Chief Investment Officer at Informed Momentum Company, commented:
"Technological progress is quite rapid, stock performance has far outpaced the market, but when commercialization revenue will arrive remains unclear."
Kulkarni expects that eight to ten years after achieving quantum advantage, a second inflection point will emerge—fault-tolerant quantum computing—at which point quantum computers will be able to handle any application in ways far beyond conventional computers.
Encryption-breaking capability is a double-edged sword
The encryption-breaking potential of quantum computing is both the most exciting and worrisome capability for governments. According to Kulkarni, breaking simple 128-bit encryption with a classical computer would take a thousand years, due to the many variables that could be changed simultaneously. But a quantum computer's design gives it an advantage in tackling nearly impossible encryption problems.
Currently, most information uses 128-bit encryption, but Kulkarni believes quantum computers could even break the most secure AES-256 encryption versions used by militaries and top organizations. This encryption relies on using the same key for both encryption and decryption, with its security based on the difficulty for classical computers to crack the key.
"When the government gets hacked, encryption and decryption keys protect the stolen data," Kulkarni said. "The concern is that once quantum computers can crack the encryption key relatively easily, that data becomes completely open to anyone. That's why governments are interested and concerned."
Marco Pistoia, IonQ's SVP of Industry Relations, said that in the future, "attacks on countries are likely to be quantum attacks, decrypting sensitive communications in government, banks, or medical institutions." This threat prompted the Biden administration to sign the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act, which requires federal agencies to migrate vulnerable systems to quantum-resistant encryption.
Government and industry accelerate their layouts
Quantum technology is not a new area of focus for the US government.
In 2018, Trump signed the National Quantum Initiative Act in his first term, authorizing $1.2 billion in funding for quantum R&D over five years. The Biden administration's 2022 CHIPS and Science Act identified quantum technology as a critical infrastructure area and offered additional funding support.
US tech giants are also deeply involved in quantum. On Wednesday, Alphabet Inc.'s Google Quantum AI team announced their Willow quantum chip can run algorithms 13,000 times faster than traditional computers in repeatable experiments. NVIDIA has been developing hybrid hardware allowing conventional computers to execute quantum control functions, with its corporate VC arm strategically investing in quantum hardware firms. In August, IBM and AMD announced a partnership to explore integrating quantum computing with existing high-performance computing.
Financial institutions are also taking action. Earlier this month, JPMorgan Chase announced a $1.5 trillion plan to finance and invest in industries "vital to national economic security and resilience," with quantum computing included among them.
IonQ recently formed a new business division focused on delivering quantum services to the US government and allied agencies. A report published Thursday by the BankAmerica Institute indicated that the combination of AI and quantum computing could unleash a new level of technological advancement—AI accelerates quantum, while quantum provides AI with the necessary computational capacity.
Kulkarni emphasized that quantum computing will not replace conventional computers but rather coexist with them. "We see the world as a hybrid system," he said. Just as CPUs and GPUs currently work together in data centers to power AI, in the future quantum processing units will sit alongside chips for quantum computing, handling thousands of variables interacting simultaneously—an area that is currently extremely hard to program with CPUs and GPUs.
China and the US have become leaders in quantum computing, competing much as they do in semiconductors and energy. According to McKinsey, China has promised over $15.3 billion in government funding for quantum technology, significantly more than the US government's $3.2 billion. China leads in government spending, while the US maintains advantages in private sector growth and the total number of quantum patents.
Marco Pistoia, who served as JPMorgan Chase's global head of quantum computing and previously engaged in quantum research at IBM, believes quantum computing will have a "revolutionary impact" on human life. " No country is willing to fall behind in the quantum race," he said.
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