How Extreme Weather Threatens Energy Security—From Jellyfish Swarms to “Super El Niño”

Climate change is impacting the global energy system in multiple ways, and scientists warn that policymakers and businesses are not paying enough attention to this threat.

The Panama Canal has reduced the number of ships passing through daily due to insufficient rainfall, jellyfish swarms have forced nuclear power plants to shut down, and droughts on European inland waterways have driven up shipping costs—a series of extreme weather events this summer have impacted the global energy supply chain. Scientists point out that as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions exacerbate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and these events overlap with natural phenomena such as El Niño, the threat of climate change to energy security is a present crisis, not a distant risk.

Meanwhile, the global average ocean surface temperature hit a record high of 21.1 degrees Celsius this week, and the EU has suffered economic losses of up to €822 billion due to extreme weather over the past 44 years, a quarter of which occurred in the last four years. Despite this, especially in the United States, policymakers and the media still pay far less attention to the climate threat than to energy security issues stemming from geopolitical conflicts.

Panama Canal: A Trade Choke Point During a "Super El Niño"

The Panama Canal is a vital artery of global trade, handling over 3% of the world's maritime trade. Last week, the Panama Canal Authority announced it would reduce the daily number of vessels passing through from 36 to 32 starting September 15th, due to persistently low rainfall putting severe pressure on the canal's reliance on fresh water to maintain the locks' operation. Some climate scientists are calling the current El Niño a "super El Niño," considering its intensity unprecedented.

Previously, the Canal Authority had implemented restrictions last month, forcing vessels to reduce their loads to cope with declining water levels. Transit fees have subsequently skyrocketed—in early August, the average daily auction price for passage through the canal's regular locks was approximately $1.1 million, more than 16 times the average price during the same period last year. Last week, an empty LNG supertanker paid a staggering $4.6 million to pass through the canal.

The additional transit costs will ultimately be passed on to end consumers. Shipping giant MSC announced this month that it will raise the Panama Canal surcharge for 45-foot containers to $376 starting in September.

Nuclear power plants are the first to be hit, suffering from the dual impact of high temperatures and jellyfish.

Extreme heat is directly threatening nuclear power generation in two ways. First, rising river and sea temperatures are forcing power plants to shut down—this summer, EDF (Électricité de France) has temporarily shut down several nuclear reactors as a precautionary measure, because the water temperatures have exceeded regulatory limits designed to protect wildlife.

Secondly, record-high ocean surface temperatures have created conditions conducive to the formation of a large-scale jellyfish tide. According to experts at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average ocean surface temperature reached a record 21.1 degrees Celsius this week. In early August, three reactors at the Gravelines nuclear power plant in France were forced to shut down due to jellyfish clogging the cooling pump system—exactly one year earlier, the same power plant had shut down due to a jellyfish tide, prompting authorities to deploy fishing boats and surveillance equipment to prevent a recurrence, but this shutdown was still unsuccessful.

European Inland Rivers: Drought Drives Up Industrial Transport Costs

Panama is not an isolated case. According to the Financial Times, drought in Europe has also caused a sharp drop in the Rhine River's water level, severely impacting heavy industry transportation in Germany. The Rhine is a crucial waterway serving German industry, and freight rates for barges to Cologne, Duisburg, Frankfurt, and Karlsruhe have risen to their highest levels since 2012.

According to data from the European Environment Agency, extreme weather and climate events will cause €822 billion in economic losses to the EU between 1980 and 2024, with a quarter of those losses occurring in the last four years.

Geopolitical conflicts are taking over the focus of climate issues

Despite growing evidence of the threat posed by extreme weather, scientists point out that politicians, businesses, and the media—especially in the United States—are far less concerned about climate change than about the energy security threats posed by geopolitical conflicts.

"Crisis events like the Iran-Iraq War almost always receive more media attention than climate change, even though the latter is a larger and more far-reaching threat," said Michael Mann, professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. "Climate change is actually an imminent, acute threat, but it has never been presented in this way."

Mann believes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Iran war are precisely symptoms of the world's over-reliance on fossil fuels and the most powerful argument for accelerating the energy transition.

Transformation Catalysts: Policy Responses in Europe and Asia

The Trump administration continues to increase its bets on oil and gas, despite the catastrophic wildfires in Hawaii and California still fresh in people's minds. However, policymakers in Europe and parts of Asia have sent more positive signals, suggesting that the current crisis could be a catalyst for accelerating the energy transition.

In April of this year, Brussels released the "AccelerateEU" policy blueprint, which includes more than 40 action measures to advance the clean local energy transition. In May, policymakers from Europe and Southeast Asia met in the Philippines and pledged to cooperate in the field of green transition.

Mark Brownstein, senior vice president of energy at the Environmental Defense Fund, stated:

"What happened this summer has once again proven that energy security in Europe cannot be achieved solely by increasing fossil fuel production or ensuring fossil fuel supplies."

However, he also warned that businesses are quietly scaling back their previous climate commitments amid surging energy demand driven by AI. "The oil and gas industry and hyperscale data center operators are increasingly calling for a situation where we have no choice but to produce and consume more fossil fuels… but this path leads neither to energy security nor to economic prosperity."

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