How far have domestically-produced surgical robots come?
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The domestic surgical robot industry is at a critical turning point, moving from “proof of concept” to “scaled profitability.”
On January 21, Zheshang Securities stated in its latest research report that, with the implementation of medical insurance reimbursement policies and accelerated overseas market expansion, the industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase from its earlier development stage. If the past five years were a period of technological catch-up, the next five years will be the period for commercial realization.
According to Zheshang Securities, in 2024, the market size of China’s surgical robot industry is about 7.2 billion yuan. It is projected that by 2032 this figure will soar to 76.7 billion yuan. This means a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 34% over the next 8 years. Such growth is extremely rare in the current macroeconomic environment.
According to the report, on January 20, 2026, the National Medical Insurance Bureau issued the “Guidelines for the Establishment of Surgical and Therapeutic Auxiliary Operation Projects (Trial),” which clarified the pricing framework for surgical robots and will significantly lower the barriers for hospital adoption. Meanwhile, leading companies have seen fast growth in overseas orders: MicroPort’s global orders exceeded 160 units, and Shanghai Microport Medbot’s overseas orders reached 72 units, with overseas expansion becoming a new growth engine.
Market Space: Over 70 Billion Scale, 34% Annual Growth
The report points out that, according to Frost & Sullivan data, China’s surgical robot market size will grow from 7.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 76.7 billion yuan in 2032, a compound annual growth rate of about 34%.
By comparison, the global market is expected to rise from 21.2 billion USD to 75 billion USD over the same period, with a CAGR of around 17%; the growth rate in China significantly exceeds the global average.
The report notes that laparoscopic surgical robots take up half the market, accounting for 58% of the total market in 2024 and representing the largest segment.
Approval for configuration licenses and the implementation of charging catalogs will become key drivers. Zheshang Securities estimates that, from 2024 to 2032, the market’s CAGR will be about 29%, with the size reaching 32.1 billion yuan in 2032.
In addition, the orthopaedic surgical robot market ranks second after laparoscopic robots. According to data from Zhongcheng Shuke for January to November 2025, orthopedic robots account for 26% of the total installs and 22% of sales revenue.
The report states that with the improvement of domestic products and the implementation of pricing catalogs, the market’s CAGR for 2024–2032 is expected to reach 41%, with a market size of 21.3 billion yuan by 2032.
Key Catalyst in 2026: Pricing Policy Breaks Hospital Admission Barriers
The report notes that 2026 is the decisive moment for policy implementation, as the question of “who will pay” will soon be systematically solved.
According to the report, past domestic robot promotion faced challenges mainly because hospitals “did not do the economics.” Only when the pricing catalog and insurance reimbursement ratios are clarified can social benefits be converted into hospital economic benefits. The “Guidelines for the Establishment of Surgical and Therapeutic Auxiliary Operation Projects (Trial)” issued by the Medical Insurance Bureau on January 20, 2026 is a key signal.
The development of domestic surgical robots can be divided into three stages:
- Early development stage: Product capabilities were weak, market acceptance was low, clinical advantages were unclear, pricing and hospital entry were difficult, and only leading hospitals implemented them. These mainly brought social, not economic, benefits.
- Rapid development stage (starting in 2026): Two key prerequisites are met:
First, product capabilities have significantly improved, with some companies launching well-rounded and clinically recognized products;
Second, the pricing catalog has been clarified.
The insurance bureau’s pricing guidelines issued on January 20, 2026, categorize surgical robots into navigation, assisted execution, precise execution, and remote surgery, with surcharges set as a coefficient of the primary operation price. This will significantly accelerate hospital admission of products.
- Comparison of local policies: Shanghai included four surgical types in category B insurance in 2021, with patients paying 20% out-of-pocket; Beijing reimbursed orthopedic robotic surgery in full as category A the same year, with associated consumables reimbursed at 70%; Hunan, in 2022, levied a surcharge of 40%-300% of the operation price, but did not include it under insurance. The establishment of a national pricing framework will guide implementation in different regions.
Accelerating Overseas Expansion: A New Growth Engine Begins
According to the report, China’s surgical robot market in 2024 accounted for only about 5% of the global market, leaving huge overseas opportunities. Leading domestic companies are rapidly expanding abroad:
MicroPort: Its laparoscopic surgical robot Toumai received CE marking in May 2024, with global commercial orders topping 160 units by December 2025, covering over 40 countries.
The Honghu orthopedic robot has received China NMPA, US FDA, and EU CE approvals, with global cumulative orders exceeding 55 units in the first half of 2025. The overseas revenue share has continued to rise from 2022’s relatively low base.
Shanghai Microport Medbot: Its MP1000 laparoscopic surgical robot received CE certification in March 2025, and the SP1000 in October 2025.
By the end of October 2025, 72 overseas orders had been signed, accounting for 61% of the global total of 118. The share of overseas revenue is rising quickly.
Zheshang Securities believes that domestic firms, leveraging product capability, cost-effectiveness, and unique innovations such as 5G remote surgery, are opening up overseas markets. Overseas growth is expected in 2026, likely to become a sustained new growth driver.
Profit Model: Copying Intuitive Surgical’s Playbook, Earning on Consumables
The report states that the business essence of surgical robots is the “razor-and-blade” model. Specifically:
Benchmarking Intuitive Surgical: This giant, with a market capitalization of over $187 billion, shows the standard approach. Selling equipment (systems) is like making friends; real profits come from the continuous supply of consumables and services. In 2024, 76% of Intuitive Surgical’s revenue came from consumables and services.
Zheshang Securities believes domestic firms must follow this logic—leverage equipment to gain site occupancy, then rely on consumables for ongoing cash flow. At this stage, installed base is the core leading indicator. Whoever can get machines into operating rooms first will control the cash flow valve for the next ten years.
At the same time, the report notes that, by referencing overseas giants such as Stryker, the future of orthopedic robots is the synergy of “equipment + implants.” The robot’s precision positioning drives sales of high-value orthopedic consumables, which will be key to profit improvement for China’s orthopedic leaders.
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