How far is the current U.S. stock market bull run from previous historical bubble peaks?

```

Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist's latest assessment shows that the current level of market excitement has risen to the 86th percentile in history, approaching but not yet reaching the extreme levels seen during the Internet bubble in 2000 and the bull market peak in 2021.

In the past two months, the S&P 500 index surged 15% before the pullback on Friday, a gain that ranks in the 99th percentile since 1980. Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist, noted in his latest report that although the four major historical signals of a bull market peak—speculative frenzy, deterioration in growth, massive stock issuance, and Fed tightening—have not been fully triggered, each is closer to its threshold than it was several months ago.

This assessment implies that there is still room for the current bull market, but risks are accumulating. Snider clearly stated "we’re not there yet," while warning that a market decline does not require investors to become extremely euphoric; historical patterns may not repeat during this cycle.

Strength of the rally: The strongest volatility-adjusted rebound in 50 years

The speed of this rebound has made its mark in history. According to Goldman Sachs data, the S&P 500 has risen 15% in about two months, and the return/volatility ratio relative to realized volatility is nearly 4—the highest in over 50 years.

Artificial intelligence is the core theme behind this rally. AI concept stocks, momentum factors, and large-cap indices all climbed simultaneously, creating a high degree of resonance.

Snider pointed out that, unlike previous momentum-driven rallies (such as late 1999 and late 2021), the main support for this surge comes from sharply revised earnings expectations, rather than pure sentiment-driven bubbles. This gives this rally a firmer fundamental basis.

Euphoria index: 86th percentile, lower than the previous two historical peaks

To quantify current market sentiment, Snider constructed a comprehensive assessment framework that covers four categories and nine indicators. Historical data shows that at the peak of the Internet bubble in 2000, the median ranking of these indicators reached the 100th percentile; at the bull market peak of 2021, it was the 95th percentile. The current reading is at the 86th percentile—above the historical average, but still significantly below the previous two extremes.

Specifically, Goldman Sachs' speculative trading indicators have risen recently, but remain below levels at the end of 2025, and far below the peaks of 2000 and 2021. Among speculative trading activities, trading volume of high-valuation stocks has noticeably increased, while trading activity in loss-making stocks has been relatively moderate. Additionally, both call option trading volume and retail margin balances are trending higher, showing rising investor sentiment.

It is worth noting that this rebound has extremely narrow market breadth, but has not yet reached the extreme concentration seen during the Internet bubble period.

Four risk signals: not yet triggered, but the distance is shrinking

Goldman's analytical framework attributes the end of historically high-valuation, highly-concentrated bull markets to four factors: speculative frenzy, deterioration in growth outlook, surge in stock issuance, and Fed tightening policy. Snider pointed out that although none of these fully apply to the current environment, each has moved closer to the warning line compared to the beginning of the year.

IPO activity is picking up, with pressure starting to appear on the stock issuance side; rising input costs are squeezing corporate profit margins, posing a potential threat to growth prospects; and the interest rate market is starting to price in a higher probability of Fed rate hikes, though Goldman economists believe the actual odds of a hike are low.

Snider also stressed that a market downturn does not require investors to become extremely euphoric, and the euphoria seen at past bull market peaks need not necessarily reappear in this cycle. This means that even if the current indicators have not reached historical highs, investors should not take this as sufficient assurance of a safety margin.

Overall, Goldman Sachs' assessment offers a cautious but not pessimistic judgment: the level of euphoria in this bull market is "getting closer" to historical extremes, but has not yet arrived. The key supporting this view is that the current rally still has improved earnings expectations as its fundamental backing, rather than being purely driven by sentiment. Yet as momentum factors stay strong, market concentration remains high, and some risk signals quietly heat up, Snider's report effectively gives investors a warning: the window is still open, but slowly closing.

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market contains risk, investors need to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on it is at your own risk. ```