How is this round of the "gold rush" different from that in 2013?

The gold jewelry retail market is experiencing a transformation under the severe volatility of gold prices, a situation both similar to and different from the "gold rush" of 2013. On February 2nd, Guosen Securities stated in its latest report that the current wave differs essentially from 2013. **In 2013, bottom-fishing followed a sharp drop in gold prices, leading to a significant overdraft of subsequent demand; but this round (2026) of demand is based on gold prices continuously hitting new highs, and the driving force has shifted from pure speculation to "asset allocation" and "product narratives."** Recently, there has been intense volatility in gold prices. From the beginning of 2026 to January 29th, COMEX gold futures rose by 12.28%, but on January 30th alone, they fell by 8.35%. Guosen Securities analyzed the current situation using the 2013 "gold rush" as a reference, stating: **This round of gold price fluctuations shares a cyclical commonality with 2013—the gold price retreated after several years of gains, strengthening the public’s recognition of gold's long-term value-preservation and appreciation. In the early stage of a decline, a concentrated surge in consumer demand is expected again.** **But structural differences are more prominent.** Guosen Securities pointed out that **the core driver of the current wave of gold purchases is not short-term profit-seeking, but a long-term pursuit of asset allocation optimization, wealth preservation, and inheritance.** **From the consumer perspective, market resilience is founded on diversified product craftsmanship, brand narratives, and consumption scenarios.** Since last year, companies led by Lao Pu Gold have seen double to triple-digit same-store growth in fixed-price products, proving this point. ## 2013 "Gold Rush": Stimulus lasted for months Guosen Securities defines the April 2013 "gold rush" as: **A phenomenon where, following a decade-long gold bull market and a sharp price drop, there was a relatively concentrated and large-scale purchase of gold products in China.** After the Shanghai Gold Exchange began operations in October 2002, China’s gold market saw more than a decade of bullish growth. By October 30th, 2012, the closing price of SHG AU9999 was 344.29 yuan/gram, a 312.22% increase. From November 2012, prices started to weaken, and on April 15th and 16th, 2013, SHG gold suffered single-day drops of 7.03% and 5.22%. This slump quickly spurred consumer buying enthusiasm. According to national statistics, in April 2013, retail sales of gold and silver jewelry surged by 72.16% year-on-year, much higher than March’s 26.3%. This growth lasted for months and was not fleeting. Annual growth in 2013 reached 25.8%, accelerating 9.8 percentage points from 2012’s 16%. Gold consumption for the year hit 1,176.4 tons, up 41.4%, with China overtaking India as the world's largest gold consumer for the first time. According to the Hong Kong SAR government, the mainland imported 1,108 tons of gold from Hong Kong and exported 474 tons, both record highs. ## Company performance soared but overdraft effect followed The "gold rush" significantly boosted annual results of related companies. As reported, Luk Fook Group’s fiscal revenue from April 2013 to March 2014 reached HK$19.215 billion, up 43.3%, with net profit attributable to parent at HK$1.865 billion, up 50%, both historical highs. The company noted in its report, "The sharp gold price drops in April and June 2013 triggered a gold rush, causing a surge in gold product demand. Gold prices stayed low, so even after the rush, gold sales maintained good momentum for several months." Chow Tai Fook’s revenue during the same fiscal year was HK$77.407 billion, up 34.8%, with net profit attributable to parent at HK$7.272 billion, up 32.1%. **But the continued weakness in gold prices led to demand being overdrawn.** From 2013 to 2015, SHG AU9999 dropped by 29%, rose by 1.19%, and then dropped by 7.3% year-on-year, respectively. Without the expected price rebound, the gold rush somewhat overdrawn future consumption. In 2014, retail sales of gold and silver jewelry grew only 0.4% year-on-year, the lowest pace in a decade, with negative growth from March to July. However, by 2015, a recovery began, with annual growth at 11.1%. ## Commonalities and differences in the current cycle Guosen Securities highlighted two key similarities between the gold price fluctuation in 2026 and 2013: > First, both saw several years of price increases before the downturn, reinforcing people’s recognition of gold products’ long-term value-preservation; > > Second, if gold prices enter a prolonged weak phase, demand tied to investment preference is forecast to decline, impacting industry growth. However, Guosen Securities notes, **the recent gold price drop has lasted only a few days, and further observation is needed.** But the structural differences matter more. From an investment perspective, the trigger logic differs. The current wave of gold buying has actually gradually occurred against continuously rising gold prices. > For example, Caibai, heavily weighted in investment gold, saw its revenue grow by 22.24% and 33.41% in the first three quarters of 2024 and 2025, respectively, with precious metals investment business growing even faster. Full year net profit attributable to parent is forecast at 1.06-1.23 billion yuan for 2025, up 47.43%-71.07%. According to World Gold Council data, Q4 2025 domestic gold bar and coin demand grew by 61% sequentially, and 42% year-on-year. Cumulative purchases of gold bars for 2025 reached 432 tons, up 28%, hitting a new annual record. Guosen Securities believes this shows that consumers’ core motivation is the long-term pursuit of asset allocation optimization, wealth preservation, and inheritance, not short-term speculation for profit. ## Product strength drives new growth logic According to the report, another major structural change in this cycle is that consumers are now buying "craftsmanship" and "culture," not just focusing on the weight of gold and price volatility. **From the perspective of consumer demand, market resilience mainly hinges on product craftsmanship, brand storytelling, and diversity of consumption scenarios.** Companies with distinctive brands or products and strong brand cognition have achieved higher growth under the high gold price environment. > Lao Pu Gold, leveraging its high-end traditional oriental craftsmanship, achieved first-half 2025 revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, up 251% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to parent at 2.268 billion yuan, up 286%. > > CHJ Jewelry, targeting younger consumers with fashionable design and intangible cultural heritage techniques, is expected to reach net profit of 436-533 million yuan for full year 2025, up 125%-175%. Meanwhile, fixed-price gold products, which carry higher labor and brand premiums, have grown rapidly. Luk Fook Group’s fixed-price gold products saw same-store sales grow 32% during October-December 2025 despite a high base, with gold-inlaid diamond series up 66%. This shows that consumers are willing to pay for design and cultural identity. Guosen Securities states that short-term gold price fluctuations have a relatively small impact on gold consumer demand. High price pullbacks may even further stimulate pent-up demand. > A typical case is the gold price pullback and consolidation from October 20 to end December, 2025—Q4 gold jewelry demand showed resilience, totaling 77.8 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year. Chow Tai Fook’s retail value of fixed-price jewelry in mainland China jumped 59.6% year-on-year from October to December 2025, accelerating 35.4 percentage points from July-September. Guosen Securities states that the industry’s core growth driver has shifted from channel expansion to product innovation. Products with high craftsmanship and added value effectively offset the impact of price volatility on consumer willingness, resulting in “alpha returns” independent of gold prices. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their own circumstances. Investment decisions based on this article are made at their own risk.