How much longer can Trump keep oil prices under control?
10 million barrels of crude oil disappear every day, yet WTI oil prices remain below $100—a tug-of-war between physical realities and financial narratives, this is the core tension in today’s global energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for over a month, the US-Iran war continues to burn, but oil prices have not experienced the “super spike” that most external observers previously expected. Trump himself admitted last week: “I thought it would be worse, much worse.” Behind this outcome is the White House’s successful suppression of panic on the financial market level, using a set of interventions centered on social media—“verbal intervention.”
However, Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas warns that words cannot keep refineries running. As the physical shortage spreads from Asia to Europe and the US West Coast, Trump’s “narrative weapon” is approaching the limits of its effectiveness.
According to Bloomberg, industry executives and government officials generally believe the next two weeks will be the life-or-death moment for the physical crude oil market.
Miraculous Calm: Anomaly Behind the Numbers
Since the US attacked Iran on February 28, Iran immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz and targeted energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, leaving the global crude oil supply with a daily gap of at least 10 million barrels. Based on historical experience, supply disruptions of this magnitude would have triggered a full-blown energy crisis.
Yet in reality, WTI prices remain suppressed below the key psychological level of $100 per barrel, currently around $92. According to Bloomberg, the White House has coordinated releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, and continued verbal interventions—simultaneously suppressing oil prices on multiple fronts.
Javier Blas notes this situation surprises the market. According to Bloomberg, market observers generally believe that with the Strait of Hormuz closed for a full month, WTI staying in the $90 range is an outcome almost nobody had anticipated.
TACO Strategy: Weaponizing “Unpredictability”
Trump’s most creative tool comes from a trait long regarded as his weakness—unpredictability.
According to Bloomberg, Wall Street has already felt the “TACO” logic (Trump Always Chickens Out) in the 2025 trade tariff debate: he repeatedly announces punitive tariffs, then retracts them. This track record now acts as a psychological lever to suppress oil prices during the current energy crisis—traders cannot be certain when, or even if, Trump will truly seek an end to the war; this uncertainty itself is enough to prevent speculative money from fully going long.
The key point is, Trump does not need to actually make policy shifts—he just needs the market to believe he “might.” According to Bloomberg, this strategic ambiguity has proven enough to repeatedly freeze buying pressure, giving the White House time.
Social Media as a Real-Time Price Regulator
Trump has turned the Truth Social platform into a real-time market intervention tool, with remarkable precision.
On March 3, as oil prices surged, he claimed that “if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting tankers.” Three weeks later, no escort fleets appeared, but this statement effectively suppressed risk premiums early in the crisis, winning a valuable window for the US.
When the market realized that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen before the war ends, Trump quickly switched rhetoric, hinting the war would soon conclude. On March 9, he said the war is “essentially very complete;” on March 20, he sent a new signal: “We are very close to achieving our goals, considering ending the great military operation in the Middle East.”
Last weekend, he issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran, demanding the reopening of Hormuz, or else he would bomb Iran’s domestic power infrastructure. According to CCTV News, on March 21 local time, US President Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social that if Iran fails to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours without threat, the US will strike and destroy all kinds of power plants inside Iran, starting with the largest one.
Then, before most financial markets opened Monday, he released his most weighty verbal intervention yet: “They are talking to us, they talk sense.”
According to Bloomberg, Iran has not confirmed the existence of negotiations, only acknowledged information exchanges. Yet this unilateral statement effectively calmed the price surge.
Financial Weaponization: Targeting “Paper Oil”
Trump’s intervention also extends to the futures markets. According to Bloomberg, the US and Japan once considered direct intervention in the crude oil futures market—not just releasing reserves—this discussion was intentionally leaked to the market to deter bullish positions.
Iran is keenly aware. Iranian leader Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on social media: “Fake news is used to manipulate financial and oil markets, helping the US and Israel escape difficulties. We know what's happening in the paper oil market.” According to Bloomberg, Tehran quickly launched its own social media counterattack, aiming to turn the tables.
This contest reveals a new dimension of modern conflict: the warring sides are turning the oil price narrative itself into a battlefield. One side strives to push up the economic cost of conflict, while the other side does everything to squash it, maintaining their ability to continue the fight.
Cracks Appear: Physical Laws Begin to Strike Back
Yet the effectiveness of the financial narrative is being eroded by physical realities.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at the Houston CERAWeek energy conference that physical supply disruptions “have not yet been fully reflected in the crude oil futures curve.” This view is shared by many in the industry.
Pressure in the physical market has emerged first in Asia. South Korea entered “crisis mode,” rolling out its first fuel price cap in almost thirty years; the Philippines shortened government office hours to cut commuting energy use; Pakistan directly closed schools for two weeks and shifted widely to remote work.
According to Bloomberg, based on Javier Blas’ conversations with executives and officials, the US clearly recognizes the next two weeks will determine the direction of the physical crude market. What the US knows, Iran knows as well.
Deadline Approaching: Two-Week Window
The White House originally planned for a four to five-week conflict. This Saturday marks week five. According to Bloomberg, once past this time point, market sensitivity to verbal intervention will dramatically decrease.
The physical crude shortage appearing in Asia may spread to Europe and the US West Coast in the absence of a ceasefire agreement. At that point, Trump’s Truth Social posts will gradually lose the ability to move the market—once physical crude truly becomes urgent, narrative power will disappear.
How much longer can Trump suppress oil prices? Perhaps only until the day physical inventories run dry. At that point, his choices will be two radically different paths—either take more aggressive physical measures to forcibly open supply channels, or, as the TACO strategy implies, opt for some form of political compromise. Either way, this current contest of words versus physical reality is in its final countdown.
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