How to deal with Trump? Here’s the “Trump Negotiation Handbook.”

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Every conflict involving Trump follows the same script.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 9th local time, Trump spoke about the conflict with Iran in Miami: he believes the war will "end soon," but "not" this week. The statement sounds ambiguous, but if you have tracked his approach to geopolitical conflicts, it is a familiar signal—negotiation terms are quietly taking shape.

This is exactly step seven described by The Kobeissi Letter—a conditional de-escalation signal. After the market has begun seriously pricing in a "longer fight," conditional cooling language appears—not a retreat, but a test of whether the opponent and the market can withstand the next level of escalation.

The Kobeissi Letter, an independent US macro market research newsletter, systematically reviewed every geopolitical and trade conflict involving Trump since he took office in January 2025—from tariff wars, Maduro's arrest in Venezuela, negotiations over Greenland to the current Iran conflict. The negotiation logic Trump applies to these conflicts is highly consistent.

This research organized Trump's conflict-handling path into a complete 10-step "conflict playbook": from verbal pressure, posturing, to a preference for doing key moves on Friday nights, to risk premiums spreading across stocks, bonds, and commodities, finally ending with a "deal" and triggering violent market repricing. Over the next 2 to 4 weeks, the institution provided three scenarios, with the outcome likely being an agreement—but before that, the market may undergo another round of pain.

Steps One to Three: From Verbal Pressure to "Friday Night Assault"

Trump's conflicts rarely start with the first missile or the first tariff; they begin with verbal pressure to "make the other side do a deal."

The Kobeissi Letter defines the starting point of Trump's conflict model as verbal pressure. For example, regarding Iran, the first strike against Iran's nuclear facilities occurred on February 28, but as early as two months prior, Trump was already posting multiple times on Truth Social, stating "a massive fleet is heading for Iran" and repeatedly urging Iran to "make a deal."

The institution notes this pattern is clearly visible in both the Venezuela and EU tariff incidents: more than a month before taking action against Venezuela, Trump announced the closing of its airspace; before imposing tariffs against the EU, he continuously threatened Denmark and claimed "it's time" to acquire Greenland.

Step two is posturing and power display—including military deployments, public ally coordination, and other visible preparatory moves aimed at enhancing credibility without triggering full-scale conflict. The institution cites the August 2025 meeting between Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan as an example—Trump publicly demanded his "immediate resignation," after which both sides reached a government stake deal of 10%, with the investment yielding over 80% in less than two months.

Step three is the signature "Friday night assault". The Kobeissi Letter's statistics show Trump’s major actions are highly concentrated between Friday nights and Saturday early mornings, including: June 21 US-Israeli joint airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, September 1 strike against Caribbean drug vessels, October 10 100% tariff threat on China, November 29 closing of Venezuela's airspace, December 25 Nigeria military action, and February 28 Iran airstrike.

Why always on Friday night? The report believes if major news breaks during trading hours, liquidity dries up instantly, algorithms amplify volatility, and panic snowballs. Announcing on Friday evening gives investors, institutions, and governments the whole weekend to digest the information.

More importantly, Trump is highly sensitive to volatile markets—he needs a window to observe market reactions and leave room for negotiations. According to the script, after striking on Friday night, Trump typically hints at the possibility of a "deal" before the next week’s futures market opens. This time, regarding Iran, that signal hasn’t come yet.

Steps Four to Six: How the Market is "Educated"

After step three, the research divides the market's typical reactions into three phases:

Step four: Shock emerges, but the market bets on a "deal being made soon." The report describes a common path: Sunday night session (US eastern time 18:00) sees violent swings, but by Monday’s cash market opening, some moves are “reversed,” since investors assume Trump loves to make deals, conflicts will not last long. The research cites March 2’s performance: WTI oil gave back about 70% of its gains, S&P 500 even turned green, but these moves were then reversed again—oil hit new highs, stocks hit new lows.

Step five: Trump uses language like "a long fight is fine" to puncture market optimism. When investors buy the dip, the market often suffers a counter blow. On March 2, Trump publicly said "war can go on forever," America has "unlimited mid-to-high-end weapons." The Kobeissi Letter believes this "forever" language is more a negotiation tactic, showing what he can withstand, not necessarily a desire for prolonged war.

Step six: The market begins formally pricing in “a longer drag.” As of March 3 when the report was written, Brent crude rose above $85/barrel for the first time in almost two years; Dow fell over 1,100 points in one day; stocks hit the week’s new lows, defensive funds accelerated outflows. This phase marks a structural change in market psychology—"First drop gets bought because investors expect a deal; second drop gets bought because the escalation is thought temporary; only on the third drop do positions start a structural shift."

Steps Seven to Eight: De-escalation Signal and Market Feedback Loop

Step seven is the appearance of conditional de-escalation signals, corresponding to Trump’s latest remarks on the 9th. The Kobeissi Letter emphasises the time window between step six and seven is "highly uncertain"—in the early 2025 tariff war, this transition took months; eventually, before the tariff "pause" on April 9, US Treasury yields spiked as catalyst.

The institution notes historically, catalysts for Trump to pull back are either the attack target proactively seeking a "deal," or structural breaks in the market. On Iran, this catalyst would be the collapse of the Iranian government, or some event structurally impacting the US and global economy.

Step eight is the feedback loop between market and politics. The financial market itself has become part of the negotiating environment, as oil prices, stocks, and inflation expectations feed back into political narrative.

Trump’s three policy priorities: be a "peace president," suppress inflation, and lower gasoline prices for Americans. Thus, if oil prices rise for too long, it directly conflicts with his goals, especially in a key midterm election year.

According to JPMorgan, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $120–$130/barrel and drive US CPI inflation to about 5%. The institution set three key monitoring thresholds: Brent crude consistently above $90/barrel, stock market down 5% or more, gasoline prices up over 10%. "When these thresholds are hit, chances of negotiation-related headlines will greatly rise."

Steps Nine to Ten: Deal Reached & Violent Repricing

Step nine is deal reached and construction of the narrative framework. The Kobeissi Letter points out, every major confrontation under Trump’s framework ends in "maximum pressure for concessions" narrative, whether it’s a trade deal with China, the EU, India, Intel, rare earth industry negotiations, or multiple conflicts ended by Trump in 2025.

Regarding Iran, the institution believes if the Iranian government doesn’t collapse, the final deal could involve a ceasefire linked to the nuclear issue, regional security arrangements with enforcement mechanisms, or sanction adjustments based on compliance benchmarks. "The specific structure matters less than the timing and narrative framework."

Step ten is violent market repricing and declaration of political victory. The Kobeissi Letter stresses after an agreement is announced, market repricing is often sudden, not gradual, because by then most investors hold defensive positions—high energy exposure, compressed equity risk, elevated volatility due to uncertainty.

Once uncertainty disappears suddenly, these positions are quickly unwound. The institution cites historical cases in April, August, October 2025 and January 2026: every time tariffs were paused or framework deals released, the stock market surged while oil prices quickly fell as shipping routes reopened.

Three Scenarios for the Next 2–4 Weeks: “Deals Return to the Table”

The Kobeissi Letter outlines three scenarios for the next two to four weeks.

Scenario 1: Escalation briefly worsens, oil rises, stocks fall, then suddenly negotiation language appears and the market reverses sharply due to overly defensive positioning.

Scenario 2: The conflict continues in a controllable but sustained way; oil stays high but doesn’t spike much, stocks wait in high volatility for clarity, deal reached later in the month under ongoing pressure.

Scenario 3: Regional escalation expands significantly, including disruption of shipping routes or more state actors directly involved; oil heads toward triple digits, global risk assets face deeper repricing. Judging from historical precedent and the fact this is a key midterm election year, probability of the third scenario is low, but not impossible.

Regardless of the path, this handbook makes a clear bet: Trump dislikes "forever wars," is best at pushing escalation to maximize leverage, then ending it with a "deal." The Kobeissi Letter sums up: "Don’t forget, every conflict Trump has been involved with since taking office nearly 13 months ago ended in an agreement. Trump is a deal-maker—follow the pattern, and you’ll be rewarded."

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their personal situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```