How will Japan choose a new Prime Minister after Shigeru Ishiba resigns?

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Major political upheaval in Japan over the weekend, according to CCTV International News quoting Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) reports today, before the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decides on the 8th whether to hold an interim leadership election, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has decided to resign on the grounds of "not wanting internal party divisions," which will trigger a complex leadership election process.

Because the ruling LDP and its coalition partners lost their majority in both houses of parliament during Ishiba's term, the process of selecting a new prime minister faces unprecedented political challenges.

First, the LDP needs to elect a new party leader to succeed Ishiba. According to the party leadership election rules of September 2024, candidates must obtain nominations from 20 party members of parliament to be eligible. In the last election, 9 candidates competed, with Ishiba winning in the second round of voting.

Because the LDP lost the majority in parliament, whether the new party leader can automatically become prime minister is uncertain and requires voting in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. If the two houses disagree, the opinion of the lower house takes precedence.

The new prime minister may also dissolve parliament and call an early general election to seek a public mandate, which will bring more uncertainty to Japan’s political and economic outlook.

LDP leadership election process begins

The LDP leadership election will proceed according to established procedures. Candidates must first obtain nominations from 20 LDP lawmakers to qualify. This will be followed by a nationwide debate and campaign stage, with the final outcome determined by votes from party lawmakers and regular party members.

In the first round of voting, each lawmaker has one vote, and regular party members have an equal number of votes. If no candidate wins a simple majority, the top two candidates advance to the second round.

In the second round of voting, lawmakers still have one vote each, but regular party members’ voting rights are reduced to 47 votes, corresponding to one vote for each of Japan’s 47 prefectures. In the event of a tie, the result will be decided by drawing lots.

Parliamentary voting procedure faces challenges

Because the LDP has lost its majority in both houses of parliament, it is not a foregone conclusion that the new party leader will automatically become prime minister. In 1994, the LDP regained power by forming a three-party coalition with its erstwhile rival, the Socialist Party, and a minor party, nominating Socialist Party leader Tomiichi Murayama as prime minister.

According to historical precedent, the more powerful House of Representatives will vote first to elect the prime minister. Lawmakers can nominate any candidate from the lower house, and historically, opposition leaders have also been nominated for the vote.

If in the first round no candidate wins a simple majority, the top two candidates advance to a runoff. The House of Councillors then holds a similar vote, but only members of the House of Representatives are eligible to serve as prime minister.

House of Representatives prevails in case of disagreement between the two houses

If the two houses disagree over the candidate for prime minister, the choice of the House of Representatives will take precedence. A similar situation occurred in 2008, when the House of Representatives selected the LDP candidate and the House of Councillors chose an opposition candidate, with the lower house’s decision ultimately prevailing.

After taking office, the new prime minister may also dissolve the lower house and call early general elections to seek a popular mandate. This is a relatively common practice in Japanese politics, especially when there is a major shift in the political landscape.

The current complex political situation means that all parties will need to reconsider their alliance strategies. The LDP may need to negotiate with other parties to ensure the stability of the new government, which will directly impact the direction of Japan’s economic policies and market expectations.

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