HSBC is optimistic about Chinese gold mining stocks: for every 1% change in gold prices, the profits of gold producers will change by about 2%.

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Against the backdrop of gold prices reaching an all-time high of over $4,000 per ounce on the 9th, HSBC believes that the rise in gold prices will bring significant profit elasticity to Chinese gold producers.

According to Chase Trading Desk, in its report on the 8th, HSBC stated that for every 1% change in gold prices, the earnings of pure gold mining stocks will change by about 2% accordingly. This multiplier effect means that during a gold bull market, the potential stock price gains of gold producers will significantly exceed the rise in gold prices themselves. Based on this expectation, HSBC has comprehensively raised its target prices for Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining.

HSBC expects gold prices to remain in a wide fluctuation range of $3,700 to $4,050 per ounce for the remainder of 2025, and to broaden further to $3,600 to $4,400 per ounce in 2026, with a peak likely to appear in the first half of 2026. As of this writing, the spot gold price has fallen back to $3,968 per ounce.

Gold Price Outlook: Multiple Positive Factors Support Short-Term Target of $4,000

Amid the confluence of multiple global risk factors, gold prices have broken through the historical threshold of $4,000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 54%.

HSBC’s chief precious metals analyst points out that geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and a weakening US dollar are the core drivers of the rise in gold. Particularly noteworthy, the US government shutdown crisis and skepticism about the Fed’s independence have further fueled risk aversion sentiment.

Global gold ETFs recorded their largest single-month inflow in history in September, and the cumulative inflow for the third quarter reached a record high. Over-the-counter trading and demand for physical funds remain strong, and speculative long positions on the CME are also at high levels. More importantly, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month. Although the pace has slowed, China’s gold reserve ratio is only 7.7%, far below the global average of 15%, implying significant future growth potential.

Based on the above factors, HSBC expects the gold price trading range for the remainder of 2025 to be $3,700-$4,050 per ounce, and for 2026 to expand to $3,600-$4,400 per ounce, with prices likely to peak in the first half of 2026.

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The above highlights are from Chase Trading Desk.

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