IEA, IMF, and World Bank issue joint warning: Middle East war severely impacts global energy and economy, low-income countries bear the brunt.

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The energy and economic shocks triggered by the Middle East war have spread globally, with three major international organizations joining forces to respond, warning that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has yet to normalize and that oil, gas, and fertilizer prices may remain high for a long time.

The heads of the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank Group issued a joint statement on April 13, stating that the impact of the Middle East war is "huge in scale, global in reach, and highly asymmetric," disproportionately affecting energy-importing countries, especially low-income nations.

The statement warns that even if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, it will still take time for the global supply of key commodities to return to pre-conflict levels, and damage to infrastructure means that fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for an extended period.

IEA Director Birol said: "We are assessing whether further releases (from strategic oil) reserves are needed; we are ready and will act immediately if necessary."

Comprehensive and Asymmetric Impact, Greatest Pressure on Low-Income Countries

The joint statement notes that the Middle East war has driven up oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices, sparking a chain of concerns over food security and employment. Meanwhile, some oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East have also suffered significant losses in export revenues, indicating that this shock is not being transmitted unilaterally.

The three organizations emphasize that the impact is especially severe for energy-importing countries, and low-income countries, lacking sufficient fiscal buffers, are facing greater economic vulnerability.

Supply disruptions have caused shortages of critical inputs, with the impact spreading from the energy sector to food and other industries. In addition, the war has caused people to be forcibly displaced and has affected tourism and travel, and reversing these impacts will also take time.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Has Not Recovered, Outlook for Supply Normalization Unclear

In their statement, the three organizations specifically name the Strait of Hormuz, pointing out that shipping through this key passage has yet to return to normal, thus hampering the recovery of global commodity supplies.

The wording of the statement is cautious, saying that even if shipping resumes, it will still "take time" for supply to return to pre-conflict levels, and considering infrastructure damage, "fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a long time."

This suggests the market should not have excessive expectations for prices to fall in the short term, as structural supply-side pressures will persist.

Three Organizations Coordinate Response, IMF and World Bank Offer Financial Support

According to the joint statement, the IEA, IMF, and World Bank leaders formed a coordinating group at the beginning of April, and this meeting is the latest cooperation under this mechanism. The three organizations said their teams are working closely together, including at the country level, integrating their respective expertise.

Among them, the IMF and World Bank will provide financial support to affected countries when necessary, along with tailor-made policy recommendations. The statement also mentioned that the IEA will release its monthly oil market report on April 14 (Tuesday), and the IMF will also release its "World Economic Outlook" on the same day, during which the latest assessments of the current situation by each organization will be announced.

At the end of the statement, the three organizations said they would continue to monitor the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy, and countries, and cooperate with other international organizations to "lay the groundwork for resilient recovery in stability, growth, and employment."

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