IEA warning: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock surpasses the combined impact of 1973, 1979, and 2022. The global economy is entering a "Black April"!

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued the most severe warning to date: the intensity of this Gulf energy shock surpasses the combined crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022—the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.

In an interview with France’s Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that over 75 energy facilities in the Gulf region have been attacked, with about one-third suffering serious destruction.

He stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed throughout April, the global loss of crude oil and refined products will reach twice that of March—"We are entering a 'Black April'."

The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its scope, which far exceeds the oil sector alone, simultaneously impacting natural gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and the global trade system. Birol made it clear that the root of this crisis is not energy itself, but geopolitics—making his outlook deeply pessimistic.

75 Energy Facilities Damaged, a Long Road to Recovery

IEA is currently conducting real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries, and energy terminals in the Gulf region.

75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, with over one-third severely destroyed. Repair projects will cost tens of billions of dollars and cause long-term disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supply and intensifying transport pressure at the key chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.

Among the affected countries, recovery speed differs significantly.

Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia, with strong engineering capacity and abundant financial resources, is expected to recover relatively quickly. Iraq's situation is much direr: about 15 million people rely on oil and gas income, the country has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching the critical point of economic paralysis. He said:

"The Middle East has long been a reliable energy hub for the world—returning to that status will take a long time."

Production Halved, Gas Exports Fully Suspended

Regarding production losses, Birol’s description is striking. He stated that oil output in relevant countries is now only slightly more than half its pre-war level; for natural gas, exports have completely stopped.

In terms of timing, the situation is worsening rapidly. “March was already very difficult, but April will be worse,” Birol said. “If the strait stays closed throughout April, our loss of crude and refined products will be twice that of March.”

He used a seasonal metaphor: “April in the northern hemisphere usually means the arrival of spring, but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.”

Developing Countries Hit First, Asian and African Economies Face Debt Crisis

Among the most severely affected groups, Birol highlighted developing countries.

He said that high oil prices, high gas prices, and high food prices together accelerate inflation and will inflict a heavy blow to these countries’ economic growth. “I worry that the foreign debt of many developing nations will rise sharply,” he said.

Regarding countries most exposed to risk, Birol named Asia’s oil-import-dependent economies, including South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while also noting that African nations will be heavily affected.

These countries share the vulnerability of limited fiscal flexibility, making it hard to resist sustained external energy price shocks.

Crisis Nature: Geopolitical Drivers, Highly Uncertain Recovery Path

In the interview, Birol repeatedly emphasized that this crisis fundamentally differs from previous supply shocks—it does not stem from imbalances within energy markets, but from geopolitical conflict directly destroying physical infrastructure.

This nature means its duration and recovery path depend heavily on political developments, and market pricing mechanisms cannot play an effective role.

The simultaneous multi-sector impact—oil and gas, food, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium, and trade shipping all affected—is subjecting global supply chains to the most complex stress test in history.

For weeks, Birol has consistently projected a pessimistic outlook in many public interviews; his language this time is the most cautionary yet.

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