If talks fail, resort to force? Rubio: An Iran deal could be reached today, but if negotiations fail, the US will "seek another path"

US-Iran negotiations have entered a critical window, with both diplomatic breakthrough and military escalation prospects hanging in the balance.

According to CCTV News, on May 25 local time, US Secretary of State Rubio stated that there is currently a "fairly credible" proposal on the table, involving the possible "opening of the Strait of Hormuz" by Iran and "launching a practical, significant, and time-limited negotiation on Iran’s nuclear issue."

Media reports indicate Rubio stated that all efforts would be made to achieve success through diplomatic means, hinting the agreement "could be reached today," but immediately added "do not over-interpret." However, Rubio also issued a clear warning: If diplomatic efforts fail, the US will "seek alternative approaches" to handle the Iran issue.

Analysts point out that this statement clearly presents the dual nature of the negotiations—while the diplomatic window is still open, hardline options remain on the table. Driven by optimism about a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, oil prices fell by about 6% that day, hitting a two-week low.

According to the latest Xinhua report, US media indicate that the US-Iran framework agreement is "95% complete," with an expected agreement in 5 to 7 days.

Agreement Outline: Opening the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, nuclear issue left for later negotiations

Media reports cite a senior Trump administration official as saying the latest outline of the negotiation framework is becoming clearer. The official said, Iran has "in principle" agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting the maritime blockade, and agrees to deal with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The official also said the US understands Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has approved the overall framework. As envisioned by the US, the first step would be reopening the strait and lifting the US maritime blockade, while the specifics of the nuclear issue would require more time for negotiation.

According to another senior government official, the proposed framework will give negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement. On the nuclear issue, the official denied claims that Iran refused to deal with its highly enriched uranium stockpile, saying the disagreement is over "how to deal with it," rather than whether to deal with it.

Previous media reports cited Iranian sources suggesting that, in later phases, a "viable solution" could be found to resolve the dispute over highly enriched uranium stockpiles, including diluting the materials under the supervision of the UN nuclear watchdog agency.

Notably, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Washington Post reported on the 24th, quoting an anonymous senior US official, that the US and Iran have drafted a memorandum of understanding "framework," including a 60-day ceasefire extension so that both sides can reach a "final agreement" to permanently end the Iran conflict, during which the Strait of Hormuz will be demined and reopened. The official said, the memorandum includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons.

Disagreements Remain: Iran takes a tough stance, multiple key issues unresolved

Reports say Iran has not immediately confirmed the above progress. Tasnim News Agency, associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, stated the US is still hindering the implementation of certain aspects of the potential agreement, including Iran’s demand to release frozen funds.

Iranian parliamentary spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei stated that Iran will not yield to pressure or threats, responding toughly: If the US wants an agreement, it should negotiate; if the US wants $6-per-gallon gasoline, it can continue its "bluster." He also cited Iran’s stance, saying the principle in military conflicts is "an eye for an eye," while in diplomatic conflicts it is "action for action."

Currently, there are obvious differences on several core issues, including Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the war in Lebanon between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah, and Iran’s demands to lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues held in foreign banks. Rubio also stated, the US is currently fully focused on the Lebanon situation and "work is ongoing" on Iran.

According to the latest Xinhua report, Fox News Channel on the 24th quoted a US official as saying that the US-Iran framework agreement is currently "95% complete," with both sides having agreed on Iran’s "nuclear stockpile" and the Strait of Hormuz issues, and are now consulting on "wording."

This unnamed US official denied the possibility of an imminent US-Iran agreement, saying: "We have not reached an agreement and will not sign an agreement today or tomorrow." He speculated US President Trump may give US and Iranian negotiators 5 to 7 days to reach an agreement.

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