If the IPOs of Space X, OpenAI, and Anthropic—the "three giants"—fail, it would be a disaster for AI.

April 27th, at The Information’s AI Funding Summit in New York, several investors and bankers issued warnings: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could all go public in the same year, which is extremely rare in the history of capital markets. However, if these IPOs perform poorly, it will have a substantial impact on overall AI investment enthusiasm. Inspired Capital founder and managing partner Alexa von Tobel stated at the summit: "These could be the largest IPOs in history, all possibly happening in the same calendar year. The performance of some of them could actually be like a bucket of cold water thrown on reality... There’s a scenario where they make surrounding capital more cautious." SpaceX: $75 Billion Pressure Test Ashley MacNeill, Co-Head of Capital Markets at Vista Equity Partners, was even more direct. She stated in another forum, SpaceX's IPO "can go wrong in countless ways," "with only a few ways to get it right." The core issue is the scale. SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion, far exceeding any previous IPO in history. MacNeill pointed out this offering size is equivalent to nearly 10% of the average daily stock trading volume in the U.S. Whether the market can absorb such a volume of new shares at once is unknown—even more so after the lock-up period ends, when a large number of shares will gradually be released, creating selling pressure. Discovery Capital portfolio manager Jon Redmond holds an optimistic view on SpaceX’s IPO, stating he feels "excited" about it, and predicts that after the prospectus is released, "people will truly start to realize how big this company’s opportunity is." But he also admitted that super-large IPOs often coincide with a market pullback in history—investors need to sell existing positions to free up funds to subscribe to new shares. "I think we will see a very similar situation, most likely tech stocks will lead the decline, and if I had to guess, it would be the ‘Magnificent Seven’ leading." $300–$400 Billion Every Year: A New Magnitude of AI Financing Another central topic at the summit was the unprecedented demand AI infrastructure is placing on capital markets. Anish Shah, Global Head of Debt Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley, said the market needs to finance $300 billion to $400 billion for AI-related spending every year, which will account for about 10% of global bond and equity capital markets. He emphasized this type of financing barely existed a year ago, and it’s now exploding. Traditional construction or project financing models are hard to fit AI infrastructure needs—the funding size is too big, the pace is too fast. Shah cited the deal between Meta and Blue Owl for the Hyperion data center campus in Louisiana as an example, calling it a "first-of-its-kind transaction": using a joint investment structure, $27 billion investment-grade debt financing was completed, allowing Meta to keep the debt off its balance sheet. Brookfield Asset Management is taking another route: deeply researching data center client contracts, clarifying who the actual payer is, counterparty risks, and whether the project can rely on the borrower’s own cash flow to cover the debt. Brookfield CFO and Co-Head of Infrastructure Credit, Hadley Peer Marshall pointed out that construction delays are a risk lenders must recognize: "Usually the contract requires the project to go live before payment terms are triggered. If there’s a delay, it’s possible to pay penalties—and the debt side doesn’t want to bear such exposure." Is AI a Bubble? Investors Are Divided As for the AI boom itself, attendees had differing opinions. CoreWeave board member and billionaire investor Glenn Hutchins clearly stated that AI is not a bubble, but "one of the biggest transformations in the history of economics and human organization." He warned: "If you’re not involved, whether capital or time, you’re not on the right side... You face a real risk of being eliminated." But Hutchins also predicted that enterprise software valuations will continue to decline. He used a strong metaphor: "A huge tsunami is about to sweep across the global economy, and software companies are just the first batch of tourists on the beach to be hit." Alex Baker, partner at PwC US Technology, Media & Telecommunications Deals, offered another perspective: as more companies shift to usage-based pricing, AI agents become the new "users", executing hundreds of times more operations per day than humans. "If you have a real moat and valuable platform, your value in the new environment is actually higher than before." Von Tobel stated that she currently focuses more on companies with relatively slow growth, strong customer stickiness, and high technical barriers. "If a company says 'We’re one month old and our ARR has gone from zero to $100 million', that doesn’t attract us. We look for businesses that are hard to build at an early stage—with deep insights or significant IP. For example, we invest a lot in infrastructure, quantum computing, photonics companies, ideas among those with 42 patent applications that aren’t easily copied by competitors." Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ special investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.