If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil tanker stocks may become the biggest winners, while the aviation sector could "bleed"?

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated suddenly, and the fate of the A-share transportation sector is branching out. The Goldman Sachs research team assesses that the oil tanker sector and COSCO Shipping Energy may be the biggest beneficiaries of this geopolitical conflict, while airlines, with the greatest exposure to fuel costs, face the highest risk of profit decline among sub-industries.

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump delivered a video speech on March 1st local time, stating that the U.S. and Israel will continue military actions against Iran until all goals are achieved. Media reports have followed, announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and several tankers have begun diverting around the area. The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 40% of the world’s maritime oil trade, with China as the primary destination for related oil flows, making the evolving situation highly impactful for the global energy supply chain.

The Goldman Sachs China transportation research team released a report on March 2nd, noting that the oil tanker sector and COSCO Shipping Energy have the largest upside potential among the transportation stocks covered. In the extreme scenario where Iranian oil sanctions are fully lifted, about 5% of shipping demand will shift from shadow fleets to compliant fleets, and daily TCE (time charter equivalent) for various crude oil tankers is expected to increase by about $30,000. The impact of rising oil prices on airline stocks is in the opposite direction—Goldman’s sensitivity analysis shows that China Southern Airlines’ profits are most sensitive to oil prices; for every 1% rise in oil prices, its expected profit in 2026 will decrease by 4.3%.

In container shipping, Maersk and CMA CGM have successively announced plans to suspend their return to the Red Sea; freight rates may have moderate upside support. Overall, the scale and duration of the conflict will be key variables that determine the extent to which these impacts materialize, and the situation is still evolving.

Oil Tankers: Short-Term Pressure on Volume, Mid-Term Restocking May Boost Freight Rates

Goldman Sachs believes that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will exert short-term pressure on oil tanker shipping demand, because nearly 40% of global maritime oil trade passes through this strait, and traffic interruptions will directly reduce tanker scheduling demand.

However, once the blockade is lifted, buyers may concentrate on restocking, providing additional mid-term upward momentum for tanker freight rates. Goldman also notes that the supply structure of the VLCC market is undergoing structural changes—according to Lloyd's List, SinoKor has recently bought and leased a large number of older VLCCs, significantly increasing market concentration, which is expected to further support VLCC freight rates. The Goldman Sachs commodities research team judges that, given the lack of viable alternative transport routes and the GDP losses caused by sharp increases in oil and gas prices, a comprehensive and sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a tail-risk scenario.

Under the extreme scenario set by Goldman’s report, if Iranian oil sanctions are fully lifted, Iranian crude oil transported without relying on shadow fleets will add about 5% incremental shipping demand to compliant fleets. According to historical price elasticity estimates, this will bring about $30,000 in incremental daily revenue to various crude oil tankers’ TCE, and COSCO Shipping Energy A-shares and H-shares may gain about 42% and 39% additional upside.

Goldman especially notes that, because Iranian crude oil is closely associated with VLCCs and SinoKor is actively consolidating the VLCC market, the upward elasticity for VLCC freight rates may be even more pronounced.

Airline Stocks: Profits Most Sensitive to Oil Prices, China Southern Airlines First in Line

Compared to oil tankers, airlines face a completely opposite directional impact. Goldman’s sensitivity analysis shows that within the transportation sub-sectors it covers, airline profits are most affected by rising oil prices.

Specifically, China Southern Airlines’ sensitivity ranks highest; for every 1% rise in oil prices, its expected profit in 2026 will decrease by about 4.3%. China Eastern Airlines and Air China follow behind with sensitivities of -4.1% and -3.2%, respectively; Spring Airlines is at -1.5%. In comparison, COSCO Shipping Holdings’ profit impact per 1% oil price change is about -1.0%, while COSCO Shipping Energy is only -0.6%.

In container shipping, the Strait of Hormuz handles only about 4% of global container trade, so direct exposure is relatively manageable. However, Maersk and CMA CGM have announced plans to suspend their return to the Red Sea, possibly further delaying the timeline for a full reopening; this is a relatively less negative scenario for container freight rates, and the blockade may cause congestion at alternative ports, adding upside risk to freight rates. If shipping disruptions last longer than expected, some urgent goods may switch to air transport, which also has moderate upside room in air freight rates.

Oil Price Trajectory: Brent May Hit $100 Under Extreme Scenarios

The Goldman Sachs commodities research team provides several oil price scenario references in this conflict.

In a baseline scenario that does not factor in Iranian supply shocks, Brent crude is expected to average $60 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027.

If Iranian supply decreases by about 1 million barrels per day, Brent’s average price will rise to $68 and $72 per barrel, respectively, up about $7 from baseline; if sanctions are lifted and Iranian output gradually recovers, Brent’s average price will fall to $56 and $60 per barrel.

In an extreme scenario, if oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz drops 50% in one month and stays down 10% for the following 11 months, Brent crude’s price peak could surge to $100 per barrel before gradually falling back as risk premiums subside.

Goldman estimates that the Strait of Hormuz is crucial to about 20 million barrels per day, or about one-fifth of global oil production. Last year, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE exported 13.3 million barrels per day of crude oil via the strait, with China as the main destination. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that existing pipeline capacity can only redirect 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day, far from enough to fill the supply gap from a full strait blockade, which is why Goldman categorizes a complete closure as a tail-risk scenario.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above exciting content comes from Windchaser Trading Desk.

For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join 【Windchaser Trading Desk Annual Membership】

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks; investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.