Impacted by fluctuations in live pig market prices, Muyuan Foods expects its net profit in 2025 to decrease by 14.93%–20.21% year-on-year.
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China’s leading hog farming company Muyuan Foods expects its net profit for the full year of 2025 to decline significantly, mainly dragged down by a sharp year-on-year drop in pig sales prices, despite the company’s achievements in controlling production costs.
According to an announcement released by the company on January 15, Muyuan Foods estimates its net profit for 2025 will reach between RMB 15.1 billion and RMB 16.1 billion. This forecast range indicates a decline of 14.93% to 20.21% compared to the same period last year, when the company recorded a net profit of RMB 18.925 billion.
The main reason for the performance pressure is fluctuations in the hog market. The announcement shows that the average annual sales price of commercial pigs in 2025 is expected to be about RMB 13.5 per kilogram, down about 17.3% year-on-year. This price trend directly weakens the company's overall profitability, offsetting the benefits brought by improved management efficiency.
Regarding shareholder return indicators, net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is estimated to be RMB 14.7 billion to RMB 15.7 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79%. Basic earnings per share in 2025 are projected to be RMB 2.73 to RMB 2.93, below RMB 3.3 in the same period last year.
Price Decline Offsets Cost Gains
Despite the challenges of a downward price cycle, Muyuan Foods stated in the announcement that it will continue to strengthen hog health and production management in 2025. By improving fine management levels, farming performance has improved, and the cost of pig farming has decreased compared to the same period last year.
However, optimization on the cost side could not fully offset the negative impact of falling sales prices. The average annual sales price of commercial pigs at about RMB 13.5 per kilogram is much lower than last year, causing the company’s overall profitability to decline from last year.
Changes in Core Financial Indicators
Compared with data from the same period last year, Muyuan Foods had net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 17.881 billion in 2024. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the company estimates 2025 net profit will be RMB 15.1 to RMB 16.1 billion, down 14.12% to 19.45% from RMB 18.747 billion the previous year.
The company stated that this performance forecast is the result of preliminary estimates by the finance department. Specific data will be subject to the audited 2025 annual report. The company has communicated in advance with accounting firms regarding this period’s performance forecast, and there are no major differences between both parties.
Warning of Industry Cyclical Risks
The board of Muyuan Foods specifically pointed out the systemic risks facing the industry in the announcement. It noted that major fluctuations in the hog market price have a significant impact on business performance, and if hog prices drop sharply in the future, the company’s performance may continue to decline.
Additionally, animal disease is listed as a major risk in the development of the livestock industry. The company emphasized that pig price fluctuation is a systemic risk for the entire pig farming industry, and is an objective and uncontrollable external risk for any pig producer. Investors are advised to make prudent decisions.
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