In less than ten years, from a junior trader to controlling one-third of the nation's nickel trade, the rise of Indonesia's "Nickel King" Ali

``` In less than a decade, Arif Kurniawan has risen from an ordinary transnational bulk commodity trader to become a hidden giant in Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer. As Indonesia's position in the global electric vehicle battery supply chain becomes increasingly solid, this low-profile businessman and the network he has built have become a key hub connecting fragmented upstream mining sources with massive downstream smelting capacity. According to a Bloomberg report on the 29th, Arif currently controls about one third of Indonesia's domestic nickel ore trading market, with his business involving billions of dollars in ore flows. Although little known, the total area of mining concessions held by him and his partners is close to the size of New York City. This control over upstream resources has given him significant bargaining power and profit margins in the current tightening market for Indonesian nickel ores. With the Indonesian government successfully transforming the country’s low-grade mineral deposits into a global battery metal powerhouse through technological upgrades and policy guidance in recent years, Arif's wealth has soared. However, this rise is now facing new variables. As ore shortages drive up costs and downstream smelter profits are squeezed, the industry's bargaining power is shifting upstream. Meanwhile, after Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto took office, he started restructuring and reforming the mining sector, including raising concession fees and cracking down on illegal mining. This has brought uncertainty to the current industry landscape. Citing informed sources, Bloomberg reports that Arif has spent most of this year outside Indonesia, with his vast business empire being managed by subordinates—a reflection of the delicate position local resource tycoons face amid policy shifts. ## Control of Core Supply Based on analysis of company documents by Bloomberg, Arif and his main business partner Edi Liu Amas own at least 20 mining concessions in Indonesia's major nickel-producing regions. The total area of these mining sites exceeds 71,000 hectares, far larger than the world-class Weda Bay Nickel mine in eastern Indonesia. In terms of trade circulation, industry estimates show that if the self-use portion of integrated conglomerates is excluded, the nickel ore traded by Arif last year accounted for about one third of the Indonesian market. Based on production data cited by Macquarie Group and government benchmark prices, his annual trading volume is about $3 billion. Considering Indonesia currently accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, Arif's control over this flow makes him an unignorable link in the global battery supply chain. ## The "Middleman" Benefiting from Policy Arif’s rise did not stem from family inheritance, but rather from his experience at commodity giant Glencore Plc and his keen grasp of Indonesia’s industrial policy transformation. Bloomberg notes that he once worked at Glencore’s Jakarta office, in charge of coal and nickel business. After Indonesia imposed a raw ore export ban in 2014, the industry underwent radical change, with a large influx of Chinese companies building smelters, especially introducing High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) technology to process low-grade laterite nickel ore. Glencore, concerned about compliance risks, was unwilling to deal directly with the many small Indonesian miners whose equity was often opaque, which left a vast market gap for Arif. In 2015, he founded his flagship company PT Dua Delapan Resources (“28 Resources,” alluding to nickel’s atomic number), acting as an “intermediary” between leading Chinese smelters and dispersed small mine owners. Although industry giant Tsingshan Holding Group initially hesitated about this model, Arif succeeded in building a close partnership with another major player, Jiangsu Delong, even jointly investing in mines. As production capacity expanded and ore demand surged, Tsingshan eventually formed a joint trading company with him. ## Transfer of Bargaining Power in the Industry Chain Since 2022, due to government production quota restrictions, Indonesia’s nickel ore market has experienced shortages, leading to significant changes in industry profit distribution. Analysts at CRU Group point out that local resource holders have become the true “power brokers.” Currently, the miners and traders who control resources are able to demand prices from smelters that are near historical highs. This cost pressure has forced some Chinese smelters in Indonesia to cut back or even shut down production, with some companies even defaulting. Ian Hiscock, director of consulting firm MMC, states that frequent regulatory changes and a fragmented market structure provide shrewd traders like Arif ample opportunity to profit from market volatility. ## Challenges under New Policies Despite building an extensive business network, Arif’s business is facing tests posed by changes in Indonesia’s political environment. After President Prabowo took office, he committed to rectifying the mining industry to boost national revenue. The government set up a task force led by the defense minister to seize mining lands suspected of violating forestry permits and threatened hefty fines. Arif’s concession project on Kabaena Island even risks being seized. Political analysts point out that with the new government’s arrival, the old commercial protection networks are being reorganized. Prabowo tends to establish new control systems and strengthen state control over resources through tools like sovereign wealth funds. For businessmen like Arif who rose during the boom of the past decade, whether they can build strong alliances in the new political ecosystem will be the key to maintaining their status as “nickel king.” Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk. ```