In the past six days, Iran's oil exports have been even higher than before the war!

Despite the obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil exports have risen instead of falling, forming a sharp contrast with Gulf neighbors who are forced to cut supply.

On March 11, according to tanker tracking company Kpler, over the past six days, Iran's average daily crude loading rose to 2.1 million barrels, above the February level (before the US-Iran conflict) of 2 million barrels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut supplies and urgently seek alternative routes due to channel disruptions, as the differentiation effect triggered by geopolitical fractures on the supply side is accelerating.

Oil prices experienced wild swings due to the US-Iran situation. On Monday, market panic pushed Brent crude to nearly $120, hitting a four-year high; it quickly fell back after Trump signaled that "the war will end soon."

Currently, concerns about supply disruptions have not dissipated. JPMorgan estimates that if the strait remains closed for two weeks, the Gulf region will see a reduction of about 3.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, more than 3% of total global production. According to media citing sources, the G7 is urgently consulting on the largest-ever release plan of strategic oil reserves to cope with potential shock.

Dark Clouds Over Hormuz, Iran's Export Routes Remain Operational

According to tanker tracking agency Kpler, since the outbreak of the conflict, seven tankers have completed crude oil loading in waters near Iran, with at least two of the latest operations carried out in the Persian Gulf. Despite the continued deterioration of security in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil export channels remain operational.

Since the US-Israel coalition launched airstrikes, Iran has repeatedly threatened to attack ships passing through the strait, causing many commercial vessels to detour or remain anchored. International Maritime Organization statistics show that, within less than two weeks after the conflict broke out, ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked by Iran, resulting in at least seven crew deaths.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned in a CNBC interview that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz "must be very careful." In response, Trump said in a Fox News interview that detained ships should "show courage" and force their way through, adding, "There's nothing to fear, they don't have a navy, we've sunk all their ships."

Iran Explores Alternative Export Routes

According to CNBC, Iran has resumed crude oil loading operations at the Jask oil and gas terminal located south of the Strait of Hormuz, along the coast of the Gulf of Oman. This move is seen as a signal that Tehran, amid the current geopolitical tensions, is trying to bypass the strait and explore alternative export routes.

The Jask facility is Iran's only crude oil export channel that does not require passing through the Strait of Hormuz and can directly access the Arabian Sea. However, its operational efficiency is far lower than Iran's main export hub — the Kharg Island terminal near Hormuz Island.

TankerTrackers co-founder Samir Madani said that currently, an Iranian vessel is loading about 2 million barrels of crude at Jask — the fifth such operation at this location in five years. But he noted that loading a VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) at Jask can take up to ten days, while at Kharg Island it typically takes only one to two days.

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe believes that the restart of Jask signals Tehran is evaluating alternative routes, but whether it can become a sustainable export channel remains questionable. Madani bluntly stated that the facility "has some value for domestic propaganda, but its logistical advantages are very limited."

The tension in Hormuz shows no signs of easing, and the global energy market still faces ongoing supply risks. Analysts believe the evolution of geopolitical conflict remains the core variable that will dominate future oil price trends.

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