Industry heavyweight: Global copper is flowing to the United States, this is a “golden opportunity” for copper bulls.

Kostas Bintas, head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, recently reiterated a bullish forecast for copper prices, warning that as large volumes of metal are flooding into the U.S. market, copper inventories in other parts of the world face further depletion. He described the current situation as a "great opportunity" for copper bulls.

According to Bloomberg, Bintas pointed out that lucrative U.S. arbitrage trades are making a comeback, which will lead to supply shortages outside the U.S. and push up the price of copper, a global benchmark industrial metal, which “can only go higher.” He emphasized that if one analyzes the current trend purely mathematically, tight market supply and rising prices are the inevitable outcomes; eventually, even Chinese buyers will have to pay higher premiums to secure supply.

To capture the profit from price gaps, traders are shipping large amounts of metal to the higher-priced U.S. market, thus altering market dynamics. This premium is largely driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies. Although Trump temporarily exempted refined copper from tariffs earlier this year, he stated that he will revisit this decision in the second half of 2026, prompting the market to accelerate stockpiling once again.

After a major industry conference in Shanghai, Bintas told reporters in an interview that if current capital flows continue, other global regions will face the predicament of having "no copper available." As a globally recognized metals trader, Mercuria Energy Group dramatically expanded its metals business last year and was also one of the major participants in large-scale arbitrage trades earlier this year.

Arbitrage Restarts and Surging U.S. Imports

With a rebound in shipments to the U.S., Mercuria expects U.S. copper imports to surge significantly in the coming months. The company predicts that import volumes in the first quarter of 2026 will match the record levels of the second quarter of 2025, when imports exceeded 500,000 tonnes.

This trend continues a year of volatility in the copper market. Earlier this year, after Trump first threatened tariffs, U.S. copper prices soared, triggering a massive flow of metals from other regions to the U.S. Although tariff exemptions later led to a price retreat, a series of mine supply disruptions brought tighter global supply. Coupled with traders rushing to ship metals before potential tariffs were imposed, global copper prices have recently climbed to near historic highs.

While Bintas did not provide a specific price forecast, he is convinced that the current market structure—weak demand, surplus, but rising prices—is a "special dynamic." He believes that as producers, manufacturers, and traders lock in supply agreements for next year, the industry is becoming increasingly aware that continued flows of metals to the U.S. may lead to shortages in the Chinese market as well.

Shift in Pricing Power: U.S. Becomes Biggest Copper Consumer

Bintas admitted that the core logic of his bullish view is driven by U.S. policy. Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, noted that the world's largest copper consumer has now shifted to the U.S.

Market data shows that New York futures prices still carry a significant premium over the London benchmark. According to Mercuria, as tariff bets continue to attract metal flows toward the U.S. market, Asian buyers will soon find themselves in a bidding war.

This polarized market has created a “two-speed” mechanism: the LME and Shanghai copper futures contracts are primarily supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while deliverable metals on Comex enjoy high premiums. Previously, other trading executives such as those at IXM and Gunvor Group also warned that a series of mine supply interruptions could lead to shortages.

Surging Asian Premiums and Tightening Fears Ahead

Currently, traders’ purchases have raised the premium for deliverable copper. According to previous Bloomberg reports, some traders are trying to buy next year’s Chilean copper at premiums more than $500 higher than LME prices. As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile’s Codelco recently shocked Asian buyers by quoting benchmark premiums of over $300 per ton to Korean and Chinese customers.

Bintas noted that, although Chinese buyers are currently hesitant about such high prices, he believes they will eventually accept them. He said, what seems like a high number today may look low in a few weeks, and deals in the Asian market will inevitably be done at premiums above $200.

Looking ahead, Bintas painted a more tense scenario: if U.S. copper prices continue to surge to $12,000 or $15,000, prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) will need time to catch up, prompting a large outflow of Chinese copper cathode. However, when Chinese buyers return from the Lunar New Year holiday, they may find there is not enough copper supply in the market.

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