Insider trading again? Crude oil futures trading volume surged 15 minutes before Trump's "TACO"

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About 15 minutes before Trump posted about Iran negotiations, a massive transaction with a nominal value of $580 million appeared in the crude oil market, triggering strong suspicion of insider trading in the market.

According to the Financial Times, between 6:49 and 6:50 am New York time on Monday, around 6,200 Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts changed hands in just one minute, with a nominal value of about $580 million.

At the same time, S&P 500 E-mini futures trading volume suddenly surged, breaking the previously calm pre-market trading atmosphere.

Just 15 minutes later, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had recently had "productive talks," immediately triggering a major sell-off in global energy markets, with S&P 500 index futures and European stock markets jumping simultaneously.

The timing of this abnormal trade made several hedge funds uneasy. Many industry insiders said this is yet another case in recent months of unusual large trades occurring before official U.S. government announcements, and market concerns about information leaks continue to intensify.

Suspicious trading timing, market participants point to anomalies

Based on Bloomberg data, the Financial Times calculated that the above-mentioned roughly 6,200 Brent and WTI futures contracts were traded in the 27 seconds before 6:50 am. Shortly after, S&P 500 index futures prices jumped within seconds, with trading volume significantly increasing at the same time.

Trump published his post at 7:04 am, claiming that there had been "productive talks" between the U.S. and Iran. The news triggered a sharp drop in global energy markets, with investors quickly cutting bets on continued conflict.

Many market participants were highly alert to this timing. A market strategist at a U.S. brokerage said: “It's hard to prove causality... but you have to wonder, who would be so aggressively selling futures contracts just 15 minutes before Trump posted?”

A hedge fund portfolio manager with 25 years of market experience put it more bluntly: “From my market intuition, this is very abnormal. There was no major data, no Fed speeches worth front-running, so for a trading day with no event risk, this is an unusually large transaction... someone just made a lot of money.”

Tim Skirrow, Head of Derivatives at Energy Aspects consulting, took a relatively cautious stance. He stated that the volumes in Brent and WTI during this period were “higher than usual expectations, but not excessively so,” adding that the Brent futures and options market had seen large new inflows from funds in recent weeks. “Given the price reaction, almost everyone was long, which is almost a required condition for such dramatic volatility.”

White House denies misconduct, Iran then denies talks

In response to outside doubts, White House spokesperson Kush Desai denied the allegations. He said: “The White House does not tolerate any government official illegally profiting from insider information. Any suggestion without evidence that officials engage in such activities is unfounded and irresponsible reporting.”

The matter did not end there. Later Monday, according to Xinhua News Agency, Kalibaf posted online on Monday, the 23rd, denying that negotiations had taken place with the U.S., claiming it was "fake news" used to manipulate financial and oil markets.

This series of events further intensified market worries about information asymmetry. Multiple hedge funds pointed out that large trades ahead of official U.S. government announcements are no longer isolated cases in recent months, and energy consultants have also noticed several large block trades with unusual timing. A trader at a large hedge fund stated that the repeated occurrence of such abnormal trading has caused “a considerable degree of frustration” among investors.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the particular investment goals, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their own situation. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```