``` Insider trading reappears in the crude oil market? $1.7 billion bet placed one hour ahead on easing tensions in Iran ```

``` Insider trading reappears in the crude oil market? $1.7 billion bet placed one hour ahead on easing tensions in Iran ```

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Before media reports about easing US-Iran tensions were released, the US crude oil futures market saw massive abnormal transactions. This tens-of-billions-dollar advance bet has once again sparked concerns in the market about illegal trading using geopolitical insider information.

On Wednesday evening Beijing time, within the hour before Wallstreetcn mentioned the US and Iran nearing a ceasefire memorandum, about 17,300 contracts totaling more than $1.7 billion in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near-month crude oil futures abruptly changed hands. Influenced by expectations of easing tensions, WTI crude oil futures plummeted $7.19, a drop of 7%, closing at $95.08 per barrel, while US stock markets rose as hopes grew the conflict might end permanently.

Multiple energy market experts pointed out that the timing of this front-running trade was highly abnormal and suspected advance knowledge of the media reports. Analysts warn that this suspicious trading pattern surrounding key geopolitical news recently is further undermining investor confidence in market fairness.

This incident has triggered direct intervention from US legislators and scrutiny from regulators. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren openly questioned whether such actions amount to insider trading on Wednesday, and according to previous Bloomberg reports, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is also investigating relevant suspicious trading patterns.

Huge Trades “Precisely Front-run”

Abnormal volatility in market data occurred precisely before the release of the major news. According to Dow Jones Market Data, at around 4:50 AM Eastern Time on Wednesday, Axios cited information from US officials that the White House believed the US and Iran were about to reach an agreement on a one-page memorandum to end the conflict and set the framework for future nuclear negotiations. Previously, President Trump had stated multiple times that the US and Israel decided to attack Iran at the end of February to ensure Iran could never develop nuclear weapons.

However, about an hour before this report was released, trading volume in WTI near-month crude oil futures suddenly surged. Most transactions took place before 4:10 AM Eastern Time. When the Axios report was eventually published, crude oil trading volume soared again.

Experts Question Illegal Trading Patterns

Regarding this exceptional surge in trading volume, several industry insiders told the media that this was clearly someone trading ahead based on insider information. Axios and the White House have yet to respond to requests for comment on these allegations.

Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group focused on energy markets and Iran issues, noted that trading volumes in the early morning Eastern Time are usually quite sluggish, and Wednesday morning's crude oil trading activity appeared extraordinarily unusual and suspicious.

Ilia Bouchouev, former president of Koch Global Partners and well-known energy trading expert, agreed. He pointed out that although Wednesday's trading occurred during the London morning session, making it slightly less conspicuous than trades in typically inactive hours, “the pattern of illegal operations clearly continues.”

Two experienced energy traders, who requested anonymity, also said these activities are enough to undermine confidence in the market. However, they added that it is difficult in practice to precisely prove who conducted these trades or to what extent insider information was involved.

Historic Abnormal Trades Spur Regulatory Review

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, there have been multiple suspected instances of insider trading in crude oil futures and prediction markets, precisely timed to key events.

Media reports indicate that on April 7, on the eve of President Trump announcing a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950 million on declining oil prices. About a week later, twenty minutes before Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping, another suspicious crude oil trade worth $760 million occurred. Since the conflict began, oil tanker traffic through the strait has been severely restricted. MarketWatch also reported insider trading allegations in conflict-related prediction markets in March.

This repeated precision betting has caught the attention of US Congress members. Senator Elizabeth Warren posted a media link highlighting some of these cases last month on social platform X and bluntly stated:

“Is this just luck? In my opinion, this is insider trading.”

Regulators are also taking action. The CFTC is investigating suspicious crude oil trading patterns linked to influential Truth Social posts and media reports. A CFTC spokesperson told MarketWatch on Wednesday that the agency neither confirms nor denies ongoing investigations.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThere are market risks; investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```