Intel and AMD Earnings Preview: Signs of Recovery Emerging in Data Centers, PC Market Still Faces Uncertainties

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The strong recovery in server CPU demand is providing crucial support for Intel and AMD, but the continued weakness in the PC market poses a non-negligible downside risk. The upcoming quarterly results of both companies will be tested by the market amid this divergent landscape.

According to Chasewind Trading Desk, in a preview report released by Bernstein Research on July 21, analyst Stacy A. Rasgon maintained an "Market Perform" rating and a $100 target price for Intel, and an "Outperform" rating and $600 target price for AMD.

The report pointed out that the strong momentum in the data center business is expected to partially offset the drag from client business, but both companies’ full-year forecasts are below consensus expectations, mainly due to differences in PC demand assumptions.

Intel’s share price has risen 163% year-to-date, significantly outperforming both the broader market and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index; AMD’s increase over the same period has reached 135%, but both have retreated notably from recent highs.

Bernstein believes that the cyclical recovery in server CPU demand, combined with the upward revision brought by agentic AI, is the core driver behind the strong stock performance of both companies, while memory price pressure in the PC market is currently the main source of uncertainty.

Intel: Server-driven sentiment boost, PC and foundry businesses remain variables

Intel is scheduled to announce its 2026 second-quarter results at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on July 23 (Thursday).

Bernstein forecasts Intel’s second-quarter revenue at $14.3 billion and non-GAAP EPS at $0.20, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of $14.4 billion and $0.21. Full-year 2026 forecast is $57.6 billion/$1.07 per share, below consensus of $58.6 billion/$1.11; 2027 forecast is $63.3 billion/$1.50 per share, also below consensus of $66.0 billion/$1.57.

The report notes that Intel is currently benefiting from exceptionally strong server demand—a cyclical rebound from years of pent-up demand after the pandemic, further boosted by a sharp rise in demand from agentic AI. Notably, even though Intel’s current server products are relatively less competitive, it has still managed to sell previously considered obsolete inventory due to customers’ willingness to purchase anything they can get. Meanwhile, market discussions around Intel’s foundry business (IFS) are becoming more active, involving speculation about potential collaborations with Apple and AI packaging business, especially with some credibility in packaging.

However, the outlook for the PC business remains concerning.

IDC and Gartner data show that global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2026 fell year-on-year by 5% and 4% respectively, a clear slowdown from the mid-single-digit growth in the first quarter, and nearly flat sequentially (IDC: +0.4%, Gartner: -0.9%), roughly in line with pre-pandemic seasonal patterns, but weaker than recent years. Taiwan ODM notebook shipments were down 4% YoY in April and 12% in May, with the dynamics in the memory market expected to further suppress PC demand in the second half.

Bernstein stated that the strong server business and increased narrative around foundry could provide a hedge, but this may be accompanied by higher capital expenditures, putting further pressure on free cash flow and margins. The report says analysts are "more optimistic about Intel than at any time in a while," but fundamentals (market share trends, PC outlook, etc.) still face overall challenges.

AMD: AI GPU potential underestimated, 2027 forecasts may still be too low

AMD is scheduled to announce second-quarter results on August 4 (Tuesday), and will host its 2026 "Advancing AI" conference in San Francisco from July 22 to 23, with CEO Dr. Lisa Su delivering a keynote at 9:30 a.m. Pacific Time on July 23.

Bernstein forecasts AMD’s second-quarter revenue at $11.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS at $1.60, slightly below consensus of $11.3 billion and $1.62. Third-quarter forecasts are $11.7 billion/$1.65 per share, notably below consensus of $12.4 billion/$1.84, mainly due to weaker PC assumptions and MI450 GPU ramp modeled as mainly concentrated in Q4. Full-year 2026 forecast is $47.9 billion/$6.98, below consensus of $50.0 billion/$7.30.

However, Bernstein’s 2027 forecasts for AMD are above consensus: projecting revenue of $82.2 billion/$14.61 per share, higher than consensus of $77.7 billion/$13.35. The report considers Bloomberg consensus for AMD’s 2027 AI GPU revenue (about $33.5 billion) to be significantly underestimated, while Bernstein’s own forecasts are about $43.0 billion, assuming customers such as OpenAI and Meta have achieved large-scale shipments by then.

The report indicates that AMD’s benefit in the server CPU market even exceeds Intel, as AMD’s products have real competitive strength and continue to gain market share. For AI GPUs, the ramp pace of MI450 (Q3 or Q4?) is a key variable to watch in the near term. Bernstein believes that, with server CPU and AI GPU both progressing, AMD is on track to reach its goal of over $20 in EPS by 2030 several years in advance—the firm predicts AMD will get close in 2028.

The upcoming "Advancing AI" conference is seen as a potential catalyst, possibly bringing announcements of new customers, product roadmap details, and updates on addressable market (TAM). The report also cites AMD’s recent partnership with Microsoft, and notes that although AMD’s share price has pulled back significantly from recent highs, Bernstein believes the current level represents an investment opportunity.

PC Market: Memory pressure as a concern for the second half

PC market weakness is a common theme throughout both companies’ preview reports, and is the core reason why Bernstein’s forecasts are below consensus.

According to IDC and Gartner, PC shipments fell 4–5% year-on-year in the second quarter, a clear slowdown from mid-single-digit growth in the first quarter. Taiwan ODM notebook shipments fell a total of 8% year-on-year in April and May, with a steep 34% month-on-month drop in April and only a slight recovery of 2% in May.

Bernstein believes that memory market dynamics will further suppress PC shipments in the second half of the year. Channel inventory status and whether CPU distribution has normalized will be important focus points in the companies’ earnings calls. For Intel, PC market weakness is further compounded by declining notebook CPU market share; for AMD, PC client risk is also the main drag on 2026 full-year forecasts being below consensus.

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