“International peers are cutting production, while Chinese gold miners are buying up! Domestic mining companies are expected to lead global performance this year.”

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As international gold mining giants face declining production, Chinese mining companies are actively turning high gold prices into performance leverage through aggressive overseas acquisitions and capacity expansion.

According to the latest forecast from Bloomberg, driven by high gold prices and ambitious expansion plans, Chinese gold mining companies are expected to continue outperforming their global peers in 2026. Chinese mining firms such as Zijin Gold International Co., Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold are steadily moving toward a profit peak in 2026. Previously, in 2025, surging gold prices and increased production had pushed these companies’ profits to historic highs.

Earlier this year, gold prices broke above $5,000 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. Although recent dollar rebounds, rising oil prices, and inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East war have led to a gold price correction—gold has fallen over 10% since February 28—broad economic uncertainty and risk aversion may still provide support for gold prices.

Chinese Mining Companies Expand Against the Trend

While international competitors face declining production and limited project reserves, Chinese gold mining companies are pursuing higher output and actively acquiring overseas mines.

One of the most notable deals is Zijin Gold’s acquisition of Allied Gold in Canada for 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (about $4 billion), with the latter operating mines in Africa. This expansion stands in stark contrast to Western competitors like Newmont Corp. and Fresnillo Plc, who are cutting output this year.

"Chinese mining companies are snapping up mines that global giants avoid," said Eric Xiao, Head of Sales at CMC Markets Singapore.

Although Xiao added these deals bring challenges including local instability and operational risks, HSBC China materials analyst Howard Lau noted Chinese producers are experiencing record profit margins, providing strong operating leverage.

"With increased production from recently completed or newly acquired projects, as well as organic growth from project expansions, there’s still room for profit growth in 2026," Lau said.

Outstanding Performance of Domestic Mining Companies

Zijin Gold is scheduled to release its first full-year financial report since its IPO last September on March 20. The company previously hinted at strong results for 2025, with preliminary data showing net profit more than tripled. Bloomberg estimates suggest its profits could double again this year.

Rival Shandong Gold said its net profit increased by as much as 66%, and market consensus expects growth of 70% in 2026. While Chifeng Gold may have achieved 81% growth last year, it’s expected that its growth rate will slow to 31% this year.

International Giants Face Challenges

In contrast, gold mining companies in Europe and America, despite reporting solid results in recent weeks, are weighed down by concerns over declining output.

UK-listed miner Hochschild Mining benefited from an “extraordinary surge” in precious metal prices, with annual profit growth exceeding analysts’ expectations. Peer Fresnillo reported its EBITDA jumped 81%.

In the U.S., the world’s largest gold miner Newmont reported record quarterly profits, and Canada’s Barrick Mining Corp. exceeded earnings expectations. However, concerns about capital expenditures and slowing output caused both companies’ shares to fall after earnings releases.

Newmont expects production to decrease in 2026, partly due to planned upgrades at some of its mines and a decline in output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.

Hochschild’s production also declined slightly due to planned work at one of its mines, while Australia’s Northern Star Resources Ltd. saw its share price plunge after lowering its production guidance.

Spending is another concern. Fresnillo’s 2026 capital spending budget is higher than expected, causing its share price to fall, as investors question when these investments will translate into growth.

"Upside potential may depend on sustained capital discipline and higher shareholder returns," said Bloomberg Industry Research analysts Grant Sporre and Umesh Agarwal. They added that rising costs may put pressure on mining companies’ profit margins in the second half of this year.

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