iPhone 17 sales tracking shows overall performance better than the 16 series, but the Air model is underperforming.

iPhone 17 sales tracking shows overall performance better than the 16 series, but the Air model is underperforming.

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In the third week after the launch of Apple’s iPhone 17 series, overall demand is stronger than the iPhone 16 series during the same period last year, but there is notable differentiation within the product line. According to tracking by JPMorgan analysts, except for the Air model, the delivery cycles of the other three models remain at high levels, indicating that robust sales of the base, Pro, and Pro Max are enough to offset the weak performance of the Air model.

According to news from Chasewind Trading Desk, JPMorgan stated in a report on September 28 that the average delivery cycle for the iPhone 17 series in the third week shortened by only two days compared to the second week, far lower than the five-day reduction for the iPhone 16 series in the same period last year. The delivery cycle for the base iPhone 17 stayed almost the same, whereas the iPhone 16 last year saw a notable reduction of 7 days during the same period. Although the iPhone Air's delivery cycle shortened, the decrease was still much less than last year’s iPhone 16 Plus.

This sales pattern is reflected in major global markets. In the U.S. market, which accounts for 34% of iPhone shipments, the base and Pro Max models are still unavailable for in-store pickup, indicating a tight supply-demand situation. In the Chinese market, which accounts for 19% of shipments, the iPhone Air has yet to go on sale due to regulatory issues related to eSim configuration.

Analysts believe that although the Air model failed to meet expectations, the strong performance of the base and Pro series ensures that overall iPhone 17 sales momentum surpasses previous generations, providing solid support for Apple’s Q4 results.

Strong Overall Demand, Longer Delivery Cycles Than Last Year

According to JPMorgan data, global average home delivery times in the third week for iPhone 17, Air, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max are 25 days, 4 days, 22 days, and 31 days, respectively, with little change compared to week two’s 26 days, 11 days, 24 days, and 31 days. In comparison, the iPhone 16 series during the same period last year had respective delivery times of 10 days, 5 days, 23 days, and 29 days.

The data shows that delivery cycles for Pro Max remained stable, cycles for the base and Pro models eased slightly, while the Air model’s cycle shortened significantly. This trend indicates continued strong demand for high-end models, but limited interest in the relatively ambiguous Air model.

Compared to the same period last year, apart from the Air model, the delivery cycles for the other three are significantly longer than the iPhone 16 series, particularly the base iPhone 17’s 25-day delivery time far surpassing last year’s 10 days, showing stronger market demand.

U.S. Market Supply Tight, High-End Models Hard to Find

JPMorgan states that in the U.S.—Apple’s largest single market—the delivery cycles for iPhone 17 and Air are 21 days and 4 days, respectively, basically unchanged from week two. Delivery cycles for Pro and Pro Max remain high at 21 days and 28 days, respectively.

More telling of the supply-demand situation is in-store pickup availability. As of September 26, some Air and 17 Pro units are available for pickup in stores, while base models and Pro Max are completely unavailable for in-store pickup. This presents a stark contrast to last year and indicates that consumer demand for the new models, especially the high-end ones, is exceeding expectations.

The U.S. market’s performance is crucial for Apple’s overall results. As a market that accounts for about a third of iPhone shipments, U.S. consumer preferences tend to reflect global trends, and the current tight supply situation bodes well for Q4 sales.

JPMorgan reports that in China, the delivery cycles for iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max are 36 days, 22 days, and 36 days, with little change from the second week. Notably, the iPhone Air still hasn’t launched in China due to regulatory issues associated with its eSim-only configuration, and this restriction may continue to affect its global sales.

Most new iPhone models in China are unavailable for in-store pickup, reflecting strong demand for new products among local consumers. Considering that China accounts for about 19% of iPhone shipments, the robust performance of the local market provides significant support for Apple’s global sales.

The situation in major European markets is relatively balanced. In Germany and the UK, the Air model is basically available for in-store pickup within 1-3 days, while the other models still require a longer wait. Germany and the UK account for 3% and 4% of iPhone shipments respectively. Although these ratios are small, consumer trends there tend to reflect wider European market tendencies.

 

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The above content is from Chasewind Trading Desk.

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