Iran and Oman draft agreement to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz; UAE expresses willingness to participate in securing the strait's navigation safety.

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As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to draw global attention, Iran and Oman are advancing a new navigation supervision agreement, sending limited signals of easing. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain high and volatile, U.S. stocks and global risk assets continue to experience sharp fluctuations, with the market repeatedly swinging between "escalating conflicts" and "partial easing."

On Thursday, April 2nd, Eastern Time, according to Iranian official media quoting Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi, Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman aimed at monitoring the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Navigation activities of ships passing through the strait are to be conducted under the joint supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman.

Subsequently, according to Xinhua News Agency citing UAE media reports, UAE Minister of State Khalifa stated on Thursday that the UAE is willing to participate in any measures to ensure the navigational safety of the Strait of Hormuz. He said the Strait of Hormuz is an important international passage governed by international law. The UAE will safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, and is also willing to join collective actions to maintain regional stability.

Gharibabadi's comments briefly boosted market sentiment, with the three major U.S. stock indices, each having dropped over 1% earlier, briefly turning positive in early trading. International crude oil gave back part of its gains, with Brent crude futures—up as much as 8.5% before the U.S. session—narrowing their gains to about 4.1%, though overall risk premium remained high.

However, in a broader context, as the world's most critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz remains in a de facto "semi-blockade," and the supply shock caused by the conflict has not yet eased.

Iran Plans to Establish a “Supervision Mechanism” with Oman

According to Iranian official media, Iran is working with Oman to draft an agreement concerning the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with both parties jointly supervising and coordinating shipping order. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that this arrangement is not meant to impose restrictions, "The aim is to facilitate and ensure safe navigation, while providing better services for ships passing through this route."

The key points include:

Ship passage to be conducted under supervision and coordination of Iran and Oman
Emphasis on “security and service,” with softened language on "control"
A partial adjustment from the previous tough stance of “fees” and “restriction of certain countries’ vessels”

This statement contrasts with the previously proposed "fee bill" advanced by Iran's parliament, which had suggested charging transiting ships and even restricting some countries' passage, sparking intense international market reaction.

From a policy evolution perspective, Iran is shifting from unilateral control to nominal bilateral coordination, leaving room for subsequent diplomatic negotiations or cooling of tensions.

From “Blockade Risk” to “Pricing Power Struggle”

Although Iran emphasizes that the agreement does not constitute a restriction, the market is more concerned about its underlying implications:

De facto “conditional passage”

“Supervision + coordination” itself means passage requires approval, essentially strengthening Iran's control over the strait. Although no formal restrictions are imposed, coupled with previous reports that ships passing through the strait were required to provide documents or even pay fees, and some shipping being forced to sail closer to the Iranian coast, it indicates that control is already happening in practice.

According to CCTV News, on Thursday Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi also stated that Iran is studying the imposition of transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the relevant fee standards are still under study and the amount has not been set yet.

Risks of Reshaping Global Energy Supply Chains

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation. The current traffic has dropped sharply at times, causing severe disruption to supply chains—LNG, fertilizers, metals, and other sectors have all been affected simultaneously.

Escalation of Geopolitical Competition

Countries such as the UK and France are pushing for multinational cooperation to ensure the safety of the passage, but the U.S. position remains uncertain. Iran is using "rule-making" to enhance its bargaining chips.

In a national address on Wednesday night Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump insisted that the shock to energy supplies would eventually ease, but did not explain how the United States would persuade Iran to allow the reopening of the strait. He called on U.S. allies who rely on Middle Eastern oil supply to "take responsibility for maintaining the security of the passage themselves."

In other words, the Iran-Oman agreement is not just a shipping arrangement, but also an attempt to institutionalize "control of the strait."

Short-Term Outlook: Easing Signals Unlikely to Change High Volatility Pattern

Based on current information, the Iran-Oman shipping agreement sends marginal signals of easing, but does not touch the core of the conflict—namely military confrontation and sanctions competition. The passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain.

At the market level, the classic features are present:

Oil prices remain in a high-volatility range
Risk assets are highly sensitive to news
“Geopolitical premium” is the dominant variable

Unless there is a substantial de-escalation of the conflict, any similar “technical arrangement” is more a short-term disturbance rather than a turning point in trend.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investments based on this information are at your own risk. ```