Iran conflict and Hormuz crisis impact transatlantic alliance; NATO reportedly plans to invite four Gulf countries to summit

As the Iranian conflict continues to spill over and the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, NATO is attempting to more deeply integrate Gulf countries into its security coordination framework.

On Wednesday, the 13th, Eastern Time, media reports quoting sources said that NATO plans to invite the foreign ministers of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE to attend the NATO summit to be held in Ankara, Turkey, from July 7–8. The Iranian conflict, security in the Strait of Hormuz, and internal NATO divisions will be central topics.

The report states that the four Gulf countries mentioned above are all members of NATO’s “Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.” This mechanism has long been seen as an important security cooperation framework between NATO and Gulf Arab states. Now, with the conflict in the Middle East expanding, NATO is clearly hoping to use this mechanism to strengthen coordination with Gulf countries in intelligence, air defense, energy transport, and maritime security.

Sources said that the push for this cooperation initiative is partly driven by NATO’s desire to strengthen its so-called southern flank, especially given the current situation in Iran.

However, the Iranian conflict is rapidly exposing deep divisions within NATO over its Middle East strategy.

The Trump administration has recently been urging European allies to join escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and has openly pressured NATO member states to support the US-led effort to manage vessel passage through the strait—the “Freedom Plan.” But Germany, Spain, Italy, and other European countries generally refuse to directly engage in military actions against Iran, fearing that NATO could be dragged into a long-term Middle East war.

Over the Iran issue, US-European relations have noticeably worsened recently.

According to Xinhua, a US Department of Defense official said on the 1st of this month that the US is planning to withdraw about 5,000 troops from Germany. Pentagon chief spokesman Parnell stated that the withdrawal is expected to be completed within 6 to 12 months. Media pointed out that this move happened after fierce disagreements between President Trump and German Chancellor Merz due to the outbreak of the Iran war.

According to CCTV News, Trump said on the 2nd of this month that the scale of US troop withdrawals from Germany would “far exceed 5,000 people.” US media reports that the withdrawal plan has caused significant political and economic turmoil in Germany. Analysts believe this is not only a military redeployment, but also a key signal that Trump is using the Iran conflict to pressure European allies to take on more security responsibilities.

Wednesday’s media reports indicated that during this summer’s NATO Ankara summit, the “trans-Atlantic alliance rift” itself will also become an important discussion topic.

Meanwhile, there is no unified stance among Gulf countries regarding the Iran conflict.

Recent reports show the UAE has recently adopted a noticeably harder position among Gulf Arab states. An article from Wallstreetcn mentioned on Monday that reports indicate the UAE has secretly carried out military strikes against Iran, hitting a refinery facility on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf in April. There have also been reports that the UAE supports a tougher regional containment strategy.

But Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others are relatively cautious, preferring to advocate for ceasefire and diplomatic mediation. According to British media, Saudi Arabia worries that an all-out regional war could seriously impact energy exports, capital flows, and economic transformation plans, so it has repeatedly called to avoid further escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz issue is currently the most sensitive focal point for all sides.

As one of the world’s most crucial energy transport routes, the Strait of Hormuz handles a substantial share of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Iran has repeatedly attacked or restricted the passage of certain merchant ships, causing volatile swings in international oil prices.

The Trump administration launched the “Freedom Plan” earlier this month, hoping for the US Navy to escort merchant ships and called for NATO countries to join. However, due to tepid responses from European countries, and insurers and shipping companies still concerned over security risks, the plan has not proceeded smoothly. Less than 48 hours after the US military started the “Freedom Plan,” Trump announced its suspension, and to date has not decided to restart it, though there have been recent rumors about reconsidering it.

Meanwhile, Iran’s missile and drone attacks against Gulf countries are also changing regional security calculations.

Media reports indicate that since late February, after the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, Iran has attacked several Gulf targets, including energy facilities, ports, and military bases. Most Gulf countries initially tried to remain neutral and push for diplomatic solutions, but as their infrastructure and shipping have suffered security shocks, some have shifted to support further US efforts to weaken Iran’s military capabilities.

Analysts believe that NATO’s invitation to Gulf countries for the summit reflects the West’s attempt to build a new security coordination framework covering Europe and the Middle East to deal with the prolonged Iran conflict and the global energy risk posed by the “semi-blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz.

But the practical challenges are equally clear: On one hand, NATO is deeply divided internally over whether to become more involved in the Middle East conflict; on the other, Gulf countries worry that fully siding with the US may provoke even more intense retaliation from Iran.

Against this backdrop, even if the Ankara summit achieves greater coordination mechanisms, it will likely still be difficult to truly relieve uncertainties facing the Middle East situation and global energy markets in the short term.

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