Iran "had a plan": A prolonged war expanding across the entire Middle East?
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The US-Israeli military strikes against Iran have entered the third day, with the intensity of the conflict continuing to escalate. The global energy market is now enduring the most violent shock since 2022.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, explicitly stated that Iran is prepared for a long-term war and refuses to negotiate with the United States:
On March 2, Larijani posted several statements on social media, saying that Iran will not negotiate with the US. Trump “delusions” of dragging the Middle East into chaos, but now fears more US military casualties. Trump has made “America First” into “Israel First”, sacrificing US soldiers for Israel. “Iran is defending itself—its armed forces have not launched aggression.” Larijani also said Iran is prepared for a long-term war, which is completely different from America's preparations.
Meanwhile, Iran is executing a systematic strike plan personally devised by former Supreme Leader Khamenei before his death, aiming to spread conflict across the Middle East and disrupt global markets. Media citing an Iranian regime insider say this plan was drawn up after Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran last June, with the core objective of attacking energy facilities and disrupting regional aviation to pressure the US and Israel.
According to CCTV News, on March 3, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that Iran did not start the war; its current military actions are defensive and not directed at neighboring countries. Baghaei said that the attacks against Iran violate international law and undermine the UN Charter. Iran has the right to self-defense; its current focus is national defense, not resuming negotiations. He stressed that the security of every country in the region is crucial, and Iran’s military actions target sources of attacks on Iran, not neighboring states.
As the conflict escalates, Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery was hit by a drone and shut down in an emergency, Qatar Energy’s Ras Laffan LNG export facility was also forced to cease operations, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed. International oil prices soared by as much as 9% in a single day, and European natural gas futures jumped over 60% in two trading days—markets are facing the wildest price swings since the 2022 energy crisis.
Khamenei’s Pre-Death Plan: Disrupt Global Markets and Force US-Israel to Stop
Media reports indicate that Iran’s current large-scale counterattack is not a hasty response, but a carefully planned strategic deployment.
An Iranian regime insider told media that after Israel’s war against Iran ended last June, Khamenei and top commanders began formulating this “detailed” plan, including strikes on energy facilities and causing regional aviation disruptions. The core goal is to create chaos in the Middle East and disturb global markets to pressure the US and Israel to stop their attacks.
“We have no choice but to escalate the situation, ignite a big fire, and let everyone see,” said the insider. “When our red lines are crossed in violation of all international law, we can no longer follow the rules of the game.”
Although Khamenei was killed in the first round of US-Israeli strikes—along with at least six senior Iranian military and intelligence officers, including the Defense Minister and the top commander of the IRGC—the plan is still advancing. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of Iran's interim leadership committee, said in a video statement: “This war is proceeding elegantly according to Khamenei’s design.”
A key feature of Iran’s current strategic deployment is the decentralization of military decision-making. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a media interview Sunday: “Our military units are now actually independent, operating somewhat in isolation—they act according to overall instructions issued in advance.”
The insider explained that in last June’s war, “orders came from the top,” but this time, “ground forces already know what to do, while still maintaining full coordination with command centers.”
Iran Defense Ministry spokesperson further confirmed this logic on the 3rd. According to CCTV News, the spokesperson said it is a misjudgment for the enemy to think that assassinating Iranian commanders will collapse the armed forces. Every commander has at least three successors—there will not be a command vacuum due to the sacrifice of any commander.
Saudi Refinery Attacked and Shut Down, Qatar LNG Facility Closed
Iran's strike plan has triggered violent reactions in the energy market. After a drone attack, Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery urgently halted operations Monday morning as a precaution; its crude processing capacity is 550,000 barrels per day, one of Saudi Arabia’s largest refineries. According to media citing insiders, a fire inside the facility has been controlled, and Aramco is assessing the damage.
Meanwhile, Qatar Energy said in a statement its Ras Laffan facility stopped LNG production after suffering a military attack. A drone hit a water tank and related energy infrastructure in the facility's power station. Qatar is one of the world's biggest LNG exporters, and this shutdown, combined with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is hitting the global energy supply chain doubly hard.
Market reactions have been rapid and violent. Crude oil prices jumped as much as 9% in a single day, and European benchmark natural gas futures soared 32% Tuesday, making a two-day cumulative rise of over 60%—the wildest volatility since the 2022 energy crisis.
Goldman Sachs has sharply raised its prediction for European natural gas prices in April 2026 from €36/MWh to €55/MWh. The supply disruption hits as Europe’s winter ends and gas reserves are greatly depleted, raising serious concerns about whether summer restocking can be completed smoothly.
Strait of Hormuz Nearly Paralyzed, Regional Investment Risk Surges
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital energy transport routes—about one-fifth of global oil and gas passes through it. Iran’s current round of missile and drone counterstrikes has nearly halted shipping in the strait, directly threatening global flows of crude oil and LNG.
Media report that Iranian regime insiders say strikes targeting Dubai hotels are meant to “make any place hosting Americans unsafe”, and force Iran's wealthy Gulf neighbors to “face higher investment risk”. “Investors will tell them: you’re close to Iran—a missile could land in your country at any moment,” the insider said.
Norbert Rücker, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, said: “The impact of this conflict on the world economy depends on whether oil and gas can be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The most worrying situation isn’t the closure of the strait, but if critical oil and gas infrastructure in the region is severely damaged.”
Huibert Vigeveno, CEO of MET Group, said: “Supply security may once again become a severe challenge for Europe.”
Duration of the War Becomes the Major Variable, Signals Conflict
The key uncertainty in the market now is how long the conflict will last. Trump says he will “at all costs”, but US signals about the war’s duration are contradictory. Citi’s baseline scenario is a cooling down in 1–2 weeks, triggered by changes in Iran’s leadership or the US choosing to de-escalate after weakening Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.
However, Iran’s statements point in the opposite direction. Larijani said clearly on social media: “Iran is prepared for a long-term war, which is completely different from America’s preparations,” and refused any negotiations with the US. According to media, Iranian regime insiders also said: ‘This will continue, with further escalation.’
The conflict is showing a tendency to spread to more countries—Britain has announced it will allow the US to use its military bases to attack Iran. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi militia groups have also joined the war.
Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said: “Whether Britain or regional countries, they may be joining a conflict that they cannot control at all. The conflict has its own momentum; all sides lack agreement on desired outcomes, risk tolerance, and postwar arrangements.”
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