Iran plans to establish a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, with an agreement with Oman nearing completion.

Iran announced the establishment of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz and reached an agreement with Oman on managing shipping through the waterway, both of which have put renewed tension in the global energy market. Brent crude oil briefly touched $97.93 per barrel, a new high since July 23.

According to the Global Times on September 8, Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, announced on September 6 that Iran would implement new restrictive measures in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The new restricted area extends from the US naval blockade line to loading ports. Ships acting without coordination with Iran will be placed on a sanctions list and face consequences such as invalid insurance and obstructed passage. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that the agreement reached between Iran and Oman on shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz has entered its final stage and will include a temporary safe shipping route, which is planned to be submitted to the International Maritime Organization for filing.

The news caused a brief pullback in oil prices, with market optimism that the Iran-Oman agreement would help ease shipping congestion initially suppressing gains, but overall oil prices remained high. Currently, Brent crude is still around $97 per barrel, near a six-week high , while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading around $93 per barrel. Since the conflict erupted at the end of February this year, oil futures prices have risen by more than 30%, with refined oil products such as diesel experiencing even more significant increases.

The Forbidden Zone Plan: A Policy Shift in Iran

According to the Global Times, Rezaei stated clearly in an interview with Iranian state television on the 6th that the establishment of the new restricted area represents a "policy shift" for Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. He said that the map of the new international shipping lane has been agreed upon within Iranian and Omani waters and "should be signed in the coming days." He also emphasized:

"We will only commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the United States stops undermining, threatening and attacking Iran."

Stephen Zunes, an international relations scholar at the University of San Francisco, told Al Jazeera on the 7th that Iran's plan to establish a new restricted zone may be directly related to the shipping agreement it is negotiating with Oman.

Zunez believes that the establishment of the restricted area will "make the situation more complicated" because the already short-staffed U.S. military will have to patrol and maintain order in a larger area, while also making shipping companies and their insurance companies more reluctant to make dangerous crossings.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf further escalated his threats, warning on social media that U.S. energy companies would become targets if Iranian oil tankers continued to be attacked. He wrote:

“Our oil and gas production chain is vast, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies in these waters and facilities face the same exposure. Attack our assets, and you will face retaliation.”

The Iran-Afghanistan Agreement: A Key Step in the Struggle for Control

According to Bloomberg, negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping control in the Strait of Hormuz have been ongoing for weeks and are now in their final stages . Bagae characterized it as an "understanding," saying the negotiations have "made very good progress," and expressed hope that there would be no "third-party interference," without naming any specific countries.

At the heart of the agreement lies the fact that both Iran and Oman border the Strait of Hormuz, and both countries seek to formalize control over the waterway, potentially eventually imposing tolls on passing vessels. This directly conflicts with the US position—Washington is imposing blockades on Iranian ports to curb its oil exports while simultaneously hoping to restore the waterway to its pre-war free navigation status.

According to data from Macquarie Group analysts cited by Bloomberg, approximately 7 million barrels of crude oil and refined products currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, compared to about 20 million barrels per day before the war. Analysts point out that only a few shipowners are currently willing to transit the strait at reasonable prices, but this is sufficient to maintain a considerable volume of oil transit.

Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report cited by the Global Times on September 7, the latest shipping data from Kpler shows that an average of only 10 merchant ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May. On September 6, only 5 ships passed through, and on September 5, only 2 ships passed through.

Diplomatic deadlock: bleak prospects for nuclear agreement

According to the Global Times , U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an interview with ABC on the 6th that Washington may ultimately not sign a nuclear agreement with Tehran, "an agreement may not be reached until the next Iranian government comes to power," and hinted that the United States may continue to push for actions to destroy Iran's "nuclear capabilities."

The Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot believes that Wright's remarks indicate a significant decline in Washington's expectations for a near-term diplomatic agreement. CNBC points out that Wright's statement is bad news for the global economy already impacted by conflict, as it means that the US's previous promises to "prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons" and "prevent it from escalating into an endless war" are becoming increasingly difficult to fulfill.

According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal cited by the Global Times, both the US and Iran had hoped to cripple each other by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but former US State Department official Vali Nasr said, "Both sides' predictions have failed, and both are now in a situation with no way out."

The conflict, now in its seventh month, is putting increasing political pressure on the Trump administration—US retail diesel prices have hit record highs, and the Republican Party’s control of Congress in the November midterm elections is at risk.

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