Iran rejects "ceasefire agreement," US plans "ground offensive," oil prices open above $115.

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As Iran rejects the US-proposed "ceasefire agreement," and the US continues to strengthen its military deployments in the Persian Gulf region, market concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict have intensified, pushing international oil prices sharply higher.

During early Asian trading on Monday, Brent crude futures rose 2.9% at the open, reaching $115.84 per barrel. US WTI crude futures also rose 1.7%, to $101.35 a barrel. Meanwhile, US stock index futures fell, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6%, extending the stock market sell-off from last weekend.

As the conflict expands, especially with the involvement of the Houthi forces, key global energy and cargo transportation routes face serious threats, and the market's risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased.

Iran Rejects "15-Point Ceasefire Agreement"

While military conflict continues, diplomatic mediation has not achieved substantive progress. According to CCTV News, on March 29 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that the proposals the US submitted to Iran through mediators were extremely radical and unreasonable.

Baghaei pointed out that these proposals involve Iran's basic rights and do not reflect goodwill or a serious diplomatic attitude. He emphasized that Iran must rely on its own capabilities to ensure security and will use all means to prevent another attack.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament Ghalibaf stated on the 29th that while the US was publicly expressing intentions for negotiations, it was secretly planning a ground offensive, and put forward a so-called "15-point plan" to end the conflict, attempting to achieve goals it could not realize in the war. Ghalibaf stressed that the US seeks Iran's surrender, and "our answer is very clear: we will never accept humiliation."

US Accelerates Troop Buildup and Plans Ground Action

Although senior US officials have repeatedly mentioned progress in negotiations, US military deployments in the Middle East continue to increase. According to the Global Times, citing US officials, the Pentagon is preparing for "several weeks of ground operations" in Iran.

US Central Command announced that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, aboard the amphibious assault ship "Tripoli," has arrived in the Middle East. The "Bush" carrier strike group is also speeding toward the region. This series of military moves has heightened market concerns that the conflict may escalate into a full-scale war.

Iran has issued a tough response. According to Global Times, on the 29th, a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that US ground operations in Iran would only send themselves "into the abyss of captivity and death," and that "the sharks of the Persian Gulf are waiting for American soldiers."

Reports: US Planning to Seize Iran’s Enriched Uranium and Coastal Islands

According to the latest US media reports on the 29th, President Trump is considering a high-risk, complex military operation aimed at seizing nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium deep inside Iran.

Insiders say Trump has not made a final decision, but he hopes to make the surrender of nuclear material a condition for ending the war. If Iran refuses to compromise at the negotiating table, the US may use force to seize it. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously hinted that the US has military options to force Iran to hand over nuclear material.

It is reported that forcibly seizing enriched uranium is extremely complex and dangerous. Elite special forces would need to fly to the target under the threat of anti-aircraft missiles and drones, clear mines, search through ruins, and pack nuclear material into special transport canisters. The entire process could take days or even a week, facing extremely high casualty risks and possibly extending the original 4 to 6 week war timetable.

In addition, US officials revealed that to provide more operational options, the Pentagon is considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region. The US military is also preparing other contingency plans, including deploying rapid response Marines and paratroopers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to seize key positions such as strategic islands off southern Iran.

Under the current framework, "Kharg Island" has become a potential key node.

Kharg Island is one of Iran's most important oil export terminals, handling a large amount of oil shipments. If this node is controlled or destroyed, the impact on oil prices will be even greater.

Houthi Intervention Threatens Shipping Chokepoints

The scope of the conflict is expanding further. Yemen's Houthi forces confirmed on the 28th that they used ballistic missiles for the first time to strike sensitive Israeli military targets. This move not only marks the Houthis’ official involvement in the war, but also brings new threats to global shipping.

According to reports, if the Houthis open a new front in the conflict, their target could be the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime chokepoint to the Suez Canal. Deputy Minister of Information Mansour warned: "Closing the (Bab-el-Mandeb) Strait is one of our options."

At present, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blocked for a month. If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is also threatened, a massive volume of global container shipping and about 12% of seaborne oil trading worldwide will face serious disruption, which would no doubt deal a devastating blow to global supply chains and energy markets.

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