Iran war drives up European airfares: Long-haul passengers pay over $100 more each

```

The global oil supply disruption triggered by the Iran war is causing fuel costs in the European aviation industry to soar, bringing mounting pressure for higher ticket prices.

According to an analysis released Tuesday by the advocacy group Transport & Environment (T&E), compared to before the outbreak of the war, the rise in jet fuel prices has increased the average fuel cost per passenger on long-haul flights departing from Europe by 88 euros (about $104), and by 29 euros for intra-European flights. The analysis is based on price data from April 16, compared to levels prior to the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war on February 28.

Senior executives of major European airlines such as Lufthansa, Ryanair, and Air France-KLM already stated clearly in March that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for a prolonged period, higher fuel costs will be passed on to consumers. Currently, jet fuel prices have risen to more than $100 per barrel, and growing concerns over supply shortages are fueling fears of widespread flight cancellations.

At the policy level, the EU is expected to issue guidelines on aviation fuel supply management on Wednesday and promote greater investment in green aviation fuels to enhance energy independence.

Airlines Face Challenging Spring and Summer

Route-by-route calculations from T&E show that fuel costs per passenger have increased by 26 euros on the Barcelona–Berlin route and by 129 euros on the Paris–New York transatlantic route. The organization calculates by gathering total average fuel consumption on flights departing Europe and allocating it across the total number of departing passengers, thereby quantifying the real per-passenger cost impact of soaring fuel prices.

Europe’s major airlines are preparing for an intense spring and summer operating season. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, jet fuel prices have continued to rise and have now greatly exceeded $100 per barrel; potential fuel shortages may further disrupt normal operations. In March, all three of Europe’s largest airline groups—Lufthansa, Ryanair, and Air France-KLM—signaled that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed long-term, higher fuel costs will be reflected directly in ticket prices, with consumers bearing the brunt.

Fuel Shock Rekindles Climate Policy Debate

T&E’s analysis also points out that the extra costs from this round of fuel price spikes have far exceeded the compliance costs airlines incur due to following EU climate policies. Diane Vitry, the organization’s aviation director, states:

"The Middle East crisis proves that our true vulnerability lies in fuel tanks filled with foreign oil, not in the regulations designed to address this problem."

Against this backdrop, calls from the European aviation industry to relax EU climate regulations have again sparked debate, with demands including the postponement of the 2030 mandate for synthetic green jet fuel and a review of the upcoming carbon pricing rules. The EU, however, insists that boosting investment in green jet fuel is the core solution to energy vulnerabilities and plans to include this in an upcoming policy package.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market entails risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk. ```