Iran’s “oil lifeline”—Kharg Island—is being targeted?

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As the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, Iran’s most crucial economic lifeline is now tied to a small island.

On Saturday, according to the Financial Times, Kharg Island—a small Persian Gulf island that handles 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports—has so far not been attacked by the U.S. or Israel.

Currently, satellite tracking data shows that loading and unloading operations on Kharg Island continue as normal, with several supertankers having completed loading in the past week. But behind this calm lies a complex game of competing interests—Washington's strategic calculations, the risk of rising oil prices, and the profound impact on Iran’s post-war economic reconstruction together constitute the fundamental logic as to why this red line has not been crossed.

However, as Trump indicated plans to broaden the scope of bombing, Axios reported that the U.S. and Israel have discussed seizing Kharg Island, bringing this island into the spotlight as never before. If Kharg Island were attacked, the shock to global energy markets would be incalculable.

Further, according to Xinhua News Agency, as revealed by the American news site Axios on the 7th, the U.S. and Israel are considering sending special forces into Iran in the later stages of military operations to seize high-purity enriched uranium. The report states that this operation would not be a traditional “ground forces assault” but rather a small-scale special operations raid, not a large-scale troop entry.

Ninety Percent of Exports Tied to One Island: Irreplaceable Strategic Value

Kharg Island is located in the northern Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers from Iran’s coast, covering just a few kilometers, yet is the absolute core of Iran’s oil export system–9 out of every 10 barrels of oil exported from Iran are loaded here. The island was built by the American oil company Amoco in the 1960s and has a maximum loading capacity of 7 million barrels per day.

Richard Nephew, former Iranian deputy envoy and current research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told the Financial Times: “Without it, the Iranian economy would collapse.”

This vulnerability arises from geographic reality: most of Iran’s coastline isn’t deep enough for the world’s largest tankers to dock, making Kharg Island an irreplaceable deepwater loading hub. The island’s facilities are highly concentrated—storage tanks densely packed in the south, long piers on both sides extending into deep water for supertankers, and undersea pipelines directly connecting the island to several of Iran’s major oil fields. The island was heavily bombed during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, with its strategic value long since proven by history.

Within the Red Line: Why It Has Not Been Struck So Far

Although joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have inflicted major damage on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities, Kharg Island remains outside the strike zone. The Financial Times cited insiders saying that, during last year’s 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the island was also deliberately avoided.

Michael Doran, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former U.S. official, notes Washington has long listed Kharg Island as a red line. He points out that, while attacking the island could deal a heavy blow to the current regime, it would also harm any future Iranian government. “The Trump administration doesn’t want to destroy the foundation of Iran’s postwar economy,” he says, “nor does it want to see oil prices rise further.”

Doran also says Israel might be observing this restriction. “It’s a longstanding American red line, and Israel cannot allow itself to think outside the American framework.”

In terms of military division of labor, the Financial Times reports that the Israeli Air Force is responsible for striking western and central Iran, while the U.S. military is responsible for the southern flank and territorial waters—Kharg Island falls within the U.S. military’s area of responsibility.

Richard Nephew further explains the strategic logic behind this red line: “The U.S. and Israel understand that any attack on Kharg Island could prompt Iran to retaliate against oil infrastructure in Gulf states. If regime change succeeds, this would also leave the successor government extremely weak.”

Signals of Escalation and Options Under Discussion

However, this red line is coming under increasing pressure. Trump said this weekend he would expand bombing targets beyond military and nuclear facilities, indicating that “new domains and groups” might be included.

According to Axios, the U.S. and Israel have already discussed seizing Kharg Island, listing it as an option. White House National Energy Lead Committee Executive Director Jarrod Agen said in a Fox Business interview: “Ultimately, we won’t have to worry about the Strait of Hormuz anymore, because we’ll seize all the oil from the ‘terrorists.’”

There are also calls within Israel for more aggressive action. Opposition leader Yair Lapid once again called on Israel on Saturday to “destroy all of Iran’s oil fields and Kharg Island’s energy industry… That is the key to crippling the Iranian economy and overthrowing the regime.”

An energy industry executive told the Financial Times: “What I worry about is that the U.S. will fall in love with the idea of striking Kharg Island, and then all restraints will be lifted.”

Postwar Planning: Oil Assets and the Deeper Calculus of Regime Change

Beyond the tactical considerations, the Kharg Island issue also reflects a deeper strategic intention in Washington. Some Trump administration officials have hinted that the objective of the “long-term game” might be to ensure that Iran’s oil and gas resources fall into the “right hands.”

A person familiar with Israeli operations told the Financial Times that the aim of this military action remains focused, “not to completely destroy Iran,” adding, “the goal is to promote regime change.”

Michael Doran believes that only under extreme circumstances—such as Gulf states suffering a major attack by Iran and seeking retaliation—would Kharg Island possibly be drawn into the current conflict.

For energy markets, Kharg Island’s fate has become one of the most closely watched variables in the current geopolitical risk landscape. Every move it makes directly impacts global oil prices and investor nerves.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investing must be done cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the special investment targets, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situation. Investing accordingly is at one’s own risk. ```