Iran's proposal to reopen the strait boosts Asia-Pacific stock markets; Japan and South Korea surge, TSMC jumps 6%, nickel prices reach nearly two-year highs.

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Iran reportedly submitted a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the United States via Pakistan’s mediation, driving all-around gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Monday, with technology stocks leading to a record high. However, oil prices rebounded and US/European stock index futures erased early gains, with market sentiment turning cautious.

According to CCTV News, Iranian sources said Iran had conveyed a three-stage negotiation proposal to the US through intermediaries. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.1%, and the Emerging Markets Index climbed to a historic high. TSMC surged 6% to a record high, boosting the Asian tech stock index to a new all-time high as well. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.4%, South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 1.83%, both reaching record highs.

Optimism failed to effectively spill over to other markets. Brent crude futures at one point rose 2.1% to $107.97 a barrel, while US and European stock index futures gave back early gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%. Meanwhile, nickel prices jumped to a near two-year high, and Bitcoin approached the $80,000 mark.

This week, the market faces multiple key tests: the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan will successively announce policy decisions; tech giants including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple, with a combined market capitalization of about $16 trillion, will release earnings. Truist Advisory Services Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist Keith Lerner commented, "This will be a crucial week," and earnings results must "verify recent market gains."

Nikkei 225 closed up 1.4% at 60,537.36. TOPIX closed up 0.5% at 3,735.28. Korea's KOSPI closed up 2.2% at 6,615.03. SK Hynix up 7%. TSMC surged 6% to a record high, driving the Asian tech stock index to a historic high as well.S&P 500 futures were little changed.The dollar index fell by 0.1%.The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.32%.Brent crude futures at one point rose 2.1% to $107.97 a barrel.Spot gold edged up 0.13% to $4,714.39.London Metal Exchange nickel futures rose to $19,365 per ton on Monday, the highest since June 2024, then slightly dropped to around $19,260, with the day's gains reaching as much as 1.8%.Copper price edged up 0.1% to $13,325 per ton, tin price fell 0.4% to $50,150 per ton.Bitcoin hit as high as $79,488 on Monday, up 1.6%—the highest since January 31 this year, briefly breaking above the $80,000 mark. Ethereum rose in tandem, up 1.7%.

Iran’s New Proposal: Strait First, Nuclear Negotiations Later

Axios quoted informed sources saying Iran sent a proposal to the White House via Pakistan’s mediators, suggesting an extension of the ceasefire to move towards a permanent truce, with nuclear negotiations to begin only after the US lifts the Hormuz Strait blockade. Pakistan has reportedly transferred the proposal to the White House, but it is unclear if the US intends to follow up. Trump is expected to convene a meeting at the White House Situation Room on Monday with his national security and foreign policy team regarding the Iran situation. The White House did not immediately comment on the report.

Prior to this, negotiations to restart talks suffered another setback over the weekend. Trump on Saturday canceled the planned dispatch of envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran, posting on Truth Social that "too much time wasted on travel, too many things!" and that there was "a lot of infighting and chaos within their 'leadership.'" Iran stated it would not negotiate under threat. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remained high, with reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had boarded two cargo ships near this strategic waterway.

Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities, said, "This news aligns with market expectations for an eventual US-Iran agreement and comes right at the peak of earnings season, which is favorable timing." Sean Keane, Asia-Pacific chief strategist at JB Drax Honore, noted, "Whenever news of negotiation progress emerges, the market gets encouraged, but as traders tire, the positive reaction to every new announcement is fading. However, the stock market is always looking for an excuse to rally and seldom requires much reason."

Tech Stocks Lead – Asia-Pacific Markets Hit Record Highs

AI investment enthusiasm and news of the Iran proposal jointly drove Asian tech stocks sharply higher. TSMC soared 6% to a record high Monday, becoming the main driver of this rally. Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield commented, "As long as energy prices stay within a predictable range, global investors are willing to bet on AI themes delivering excess returns."

Last Friday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.8% at 7,165.08, Nasdaq Composite up 1.63% at 24,836.60—both intraday record highs; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.61 points (0.16%) to 49,230.71. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 10% since the end of March, poised for its biggest monthly gain since late 2020.

Central Bank Decisions and Tech Earnings Form a Double Pressure Test

This week, the market faces a dual test from central bank and corporate fundamentals. Investors generally expect the Fed and ECB to keep rates unchanged, but traders will closely watch officials' comments regarding inflation risks posed by oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. The Bank of Japan policy meeting starts Tuesday. Maybank Asset Management’s Rachana Mehta said investors buying five-to-six-year bonds can still achieve positive returns this year solely from the yield spread.

Previously, the Justice Department closed its investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh’s nomination and increasing market bets on the Fed resuming rate cuts this year. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.32% on Monday.

On earnings, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will report Wednesday, followed by Apple Thursday. These five companies have a combined market value of about $16 trillion, making up a quarter of the S&P 500’s total market cap. Francis Tan, Singapore Asia Chief Strategist at Indosuez Wealth, said investors remain encouraged by strong corporate earnings and the AI boom, "while keeping the US-Iran situation at the edge of their view with close attention."

Nickel Prices Jump to Near Two-Year High

London Metal Exchange nickel futures rose to $19,365 per ton on Monday, the highest since June 2024, then eased to around $19,260, with gains reaching as much as 1.8%. Nickel prices have surged about 10% since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Key drivers for the nickel price rally include Indonesia cutting mining quotas and global sulfur shortages, which have disrupted Indonesia’s mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production and copper leaching operations in Africa. Jinrui Futures pointed out in a report, "The mood in the nickel market remains positive, and traders await further catalysts for upside, pointing to significant cuts in MHP output." Other base metals showed mixed performances, with copper up 0.1% to $13,325 per ton and tin down 0.4% to $50,150 per ton.

Bitcoin Nears the $80,000 Mark

Bitcoin hit as high as $79,488 on Monday, up 1.6%—the highest since January 31 this year, briefly breaking above the $80,000 mark. Ethereum rose in tandem, up 1.7%.

Bitcoin has gained 16% so far in April, on track for its first double-digit monthly gain since May 2025. Strategy Inc., Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-holding company, has bought $3.9 billion worth of bitcoin this month—the largest monthly purchase in nearly a year. US-listed bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows of about $2.5 billion so far this month, likely to double March’s total after four months of institutional net outflows.

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas noted that $80,000 is a break-even point for many recent buyers and profit-taking pressure is likely at this level. She also warned: "The probability of a US-Iran deal has declined sharply, and this macro risk may prompt a repricing of risk assets overall."

Risk Warning and Disclaimer ClauseThe market has risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```