Is it time to position for a major consumer sector reversal?

``` 招商 Securities' latest research report points out that despite ongoing uncertainties in the macro environment and the consumer sector as a whole undergoing deep adjustment, leading companies are demonstrating structural resilience, and several sub-sectors are showing positive signals. Specifically, high-end baijiu sales have exceeded expectations, and benchmark brands' wholesale prices are rising—confirming bottom support; the penetration rate of discount snack chains is accelerating, with leading brands continuously increasing their market share; the innovative pharmaceuticals supply chain is trending positively, with the CXO segment gradually entering a recovery channel; and the livestock industry is continuing to reduce production capacity, marginally improving supply-demand dynamics. Currently, the consumer sector is in a window of sentiment and valuation recovery, and the rising concentration of the industry is becoming a definite trend. On the whole, the investment logic for the current consumer sector has shifted from beta-driven to alpha-seeking. **It is recommended to focus on leading companies with scale barriers, brand influence, and operational efficiency, in order to capture structural allocation opportunities.** ## Baijiu: Moutai Price Bottom Confirmed; Leadership Concentration Trend Continues According to the report, **while overall baijiu sales are still showing double-digit declines, Kweichow Moutai’s performance has significantly exceeded market expectations.** Feedback from key markets such as Henan, Anhui, and Sichuan shows that Spring Festival stocking demand was notably preponed, and sales in several regions registered double-digit growth, notably better than previous market expectations of flat growth. Moutai’s proprietary platform contributed over 1,500 tons of incremental sales in January; the 1,499-yuan pricing policy has effectively activated mass consumption, with related demand rising from single digits to over 20%. From a supply-demand perspective, traditional Moutai channels have achieved 25% shipment progress, in line with last year, and channel inventory remains at historic lows. Given the tight supply pattern, wholesale prices have steadily rebounded to nearly 1,700 yuan, confirming a price bottom. In the short term, quotas before the Spring Festival have basically been executed, distributor inventories are extremely low, and the tight supply-demand will continue to support a firm price performance. In the mid-term, the trend of industry concentration continues. Brands that adjusted their channels earlier may achieve year-on-year growth on a low base, **but the “winner-takes-all” pattern among leading enterprises remains robust.** In the long term, **though the industry still faces macroeconomic and policy headwinds, the supply-demand structure of leading baijiu companies is solid**; as these constraints gradually ease, a simultaneous recovery of performance and valuation is anticipated. ## Discount Snacks: Rapid Share Gains for Efficient Formats **Discount snack channels, owing to their comprehensive value of “variety, speed, quality, savings,” are quickly realizing structural substitution for traditional retail formats.** Data show that in 2024 the market size of this sector has exceeded 129.7 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024. In the long term, the industry’s ultimate store count could reach 80,000–100,000, with the current penetration rate at about 20%, leaving vast room for future development. **The market structure shows a high degree of concentration:** the twin leaders "Mingming Busy" and "Wancheng" together command over 75% market share, with "Mingming Busy" alone holding about 43%. Top companies have built significant competitive barriers through deep supply chain integration, efficient warehousing and distribution systems, and rapid store expansion: category structures keep optimizing, proportions of direct supply and customization are rising, and quality control systems are improving. As of late November 2025, "Mingming Busy" had a total of 21,041 stores, achieving a GMV of 66.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 73% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, up 241% year-on-year. **Against the backdrop of continued value-for-money consumption trends, discount snack channels are expected to further increase market penetration, thanks to outstanding operational efficiency.** As scale effects are released, leading companies’ advantages in supply chain, branding, and operations will continue to strengthen, driving even higher sector concentration, and industry leaders with systematic capabilities will continue to benefit from industry growth and consolidation dividends. ## Pharmaceuticals: Innovation-Driven Main Line Clear, Uptrend in the Value Chain According to the report, with the acceleration of innovative drugs’ international expansion and ongoing domestic demand polarization, investment opportunities in the pharmaceuticals sector are increasingly structural. **The innovative drug value chain remains the core theme;** besides popular tracks such as immunotherapy, weight-loss drugs, and ADCs, small nucleic acid technology is becoming a breakthrough area to watch. This technology is expanding from rare diseases to chronic disease fields, with targeted applications moving from intrahepatic to extrahepatic, and 2026 is projected as a catalytic year for the nucleic acid sector. Multiple relevant companies are entering the listing stage, while traditional pharma is actively laying out through cooperation and self-developed platforms. In the upstream of the value chain, **the CXO sector’s prosperity level is steadily rebounding.** Since 2025, improvements in overseas biotech financing have driven external order fulfillment, molecular innovation is offering new growth prospects, and domestic CRO demand is seeing structural recovery with growth in new orders. Life science services are benefiting from revived domestic R&D investment, with most players reaching inflection points in performance. The API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) industry has entered a price bottom; as new capacity is released, companies with stable customer structures and order support are expected to improve marginal profit via increased capacity utilization. **In the medical devices sector, recovery in in-hospital demand will help improve inventory cycles.** Tendering data for medical devices remains strong, likely driving gradual inventory optimization; the industry may reach a prosperity inflection point in 2026. The scope of collective procurement for high-value consumables is expanding, accelerating the progress of domestic substitution. In IVD, under collective procurement policies, leading domestic firms are set to further boost their market shares. ## Home Furnishing and Textiles: Marginal Recovery in Real Estate Sentiment **Since the beginning of 2026, there have been positive signals in the real estate market, with second-hand housing transactions rebounding.** In weeks 2–4 of January, the transaction area for second-hand homes in key cities rose by 29%, 5%, and 5% week-on-week, respectively, cumulatively narrowing the annual decline to -2%, reflecting synchronous recovery in market expectations and supply-demand structure. On the policy side, corporate financing restrictions may be appropriately adjusted, and Vanke’s successful debt extension is leading to marginal improvements in overall sentiment across the real estate value chain. **The home furnishing sector is currently in a dual window of valuation and sentiment recovery.** Leading companies are trading at historic valuation lows, combining the safety margin of high dividends with structural advantages from steadily rising market share. Top players in the soft furnishing and custom home segments are likely to benefit both from an industry beta rebound and from release of their own alpha capabilities. **In sportswear, Li-Ning is pushing forward changes across product, channel, and marketing dimensions.** On the product side, the Feidian 6 and Chitu 9 series, equipped with advanced “supersoft” technology, have garnered significant market interest. Channel-wise, the first flagship “Dragon Store” opened in Sanlitun, Beijing, and the Honor Gold Label range further diversified the product lineup. On the marketing front, the brand debuted at Milan Fashion Week, building momentum towards the February Milan Winter Olympics. With operational adjustments largely in place and last year’s base low, 2026 may see a performance upturn for the company. ## Livestock: Ongoing Capacity Reduction; Supply-Demand Improvement Expected **The hog breeding sector’s capacity reduction continues.** Since May 2025, multiple regulatory policies have gradually taken effect, prompting orderly industry capacity adjustment. By the end of 2025, the national breeding sow inventory had fallen to 39.61 million. Factoring in piglets born in H2 2025, pig supply in H1 2026 will remain relatively high and prices may stay under pressure. However, as sow attrition accelerates, the cyclical turning point draws closer. Recently, under seasonal demand, pig prices have seen a small rebound, and leading farming enterprises with cost and capital advantages are showing increasing value for allocation. In poultry, the white-feathered broiler industry has faced persistent supply tightness in parent stock due to earlier restrictions on overseas import and declining breeding quality, leading to clear capacity contraction. Yellow-feathered broilers have entered an upswing since Q4 2025, with current farming costs at historic lows and profit elasticity steadily increasing at top firms. The planting sector benefits from agricultural commodity cycles and policy drivers. Amidst greater uncertainty from global extreme weather and trade environments, food security has risen in strategic importance, the pace of GMO corn commercialization in China is accelerating, and expansion and optimization in the seed industry are expected. Leading seed companies with sustained R&D capacity will stand out. Risk Warning & Disclaimer The market involves risks; investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs. Users should determine whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Investment based on this content is at one’s own risk. ```