Is SpaceX a defensive AI stock?

Amid escalating AI security controversies and questionable prospects for basic model development, Morgan Stanley emphasizes that SpaceX possesses relatively stronger defensive attributes within its AI stock portfolio and maintains its overweight rating and $300 price target.

Calls for self-limitation in the development of basic models have put pressure on the overall AI trading market. According to Morgan Stanley research, over the past week and month, SpaceX has shown greater resilience compared to major AI peers such as Meta, Nvidia, and Broadcom. Analyst Adam Jonas points out that SpaceX is not purely an AI stock; its diversified business structure provides a buffer for its share price during periods of AI sentiment volatility.

Analysts also emphasized that at the current share price of around $148, the implied sales multiplier for the company's AI business is only in the low single digits, and the value of orbital AI options is almost zero. Investors now face a window of opportunity to "re-evaluate" SpaceX stock with stronger fundamentals.

Business diversification: Aerospace and connectivity businesses provide a buffer

Morgan Stanley believes that SpaceX is not simply an AI company. Analysts characterize it as a manufacturing and infrastructure enterprise that transforms energy into intelligence on a large scale through a vertically integrated space launch, satellite communications, and computing stack.

Many of SpaceX's recent catalysts are unrelated to the booming AI industry.

The 14th Starship flight (expected on September 22) and the 15th Starship flight (expected in mid-October to early November) are independent events. Meanwhile, Starlink's connected services have seen user growth of over 100% year-over-year, serving as the core source of cash flow at this stage and not relying on overall AI capital expenditure in the industry.

From a valuation breakdown perspective, analysts estimate that about three-quarters of the total market capitalization of approximately $2 trillion is driven by the aerospace and connectivity businesses. Using its sum-of-the-parts valuation model, the aerospace segment corresponds to approximately $8 per share, and the connectivity segment to approximately $118 per share. Based on the current share price, the market's implied valuation of the AI business is only about 10% of Morgan Stanley's AI valuation (i.e., about 10% of a valuation of $183 per share).

Long-term options: Orbital AI infrastructure after 2030

Morgan Stanley points out that SpaceX's long-term holders are betting on the commercialization of space-based AI infrastructure, and the main turning point of this logic is expected to appear after 2030, which is a long-term option value.

In terms of more recent strategic planning, SpaceX's collaboration with Tesla focuses on the field of robotics, while its collaborations with Nvidia and Intel point to domestic semiconductor manufacturing. These are all long-term options in adjacent sectors, and the market has not yet priced these options in.

Flexible financial leverage: Ample cash reserves and adjustable capital expenditures

At the balance sheet level, as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX had approximately $10 billion in total cash and approximately $6.1 billion in net cash.

Morgan Stanley expects the company to finance its debt in the future, keeping the debt-to-EBITDA ratio in the range of 1.5 to 2 times, but emphasizes that management has considerable flexibility in the timing and scale of capital expenditures—the company will only borrow and proceed with spending if the business plan is feasible.

AI computing power elasticity: Every additional 1GW could boost stock price by $27.

Morgan Stanley's sensitivity analysis of AI computing power scale shows that every additional 1GW of rated computing power (calculated at a cost of $50 per watt, a 70% incremental profit margin, and 10x EBITDA capitalization) could contribute approximately $27 to the stock price, equivalent to 15% to 20% of the current stock price.

The bank forecasts 4.9GW of AI computing power by the end of fiscal year 2027, while the company's own target is "close to 10GW." If the company achieves or exceeds its internal targets, the upside potential for its stock price will significantly exceed the benchmark forecast.

"The Musk Factor": The Premium of Execution in Crisis

Morgan Stanley explicitly listed Musk himself as a source of defensiveness in its fifth reason. The report pointed out that, based on experience observing SpaceX CEO's management style over the past two decades, he is not inclined to waste opportunities presented by crises.

The report cites historical examples: Tesla achieved outstanding performance in both operations and stock price during the "production hell" of 2018-2019 and the pandemic of 2020-2021, both amidst highly uncertain market conditions.

Morgan Stanley believes that in the current environment of pressure on AI sentiment, a management team with outstanding market insight and execution capabilities is likely to make SpaceX stand out among its peers.

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