Is SpaceX worth 1.75 trillion yuan?

```

SpaceX is preparing for an IPO that could rewrite the history of capital markets, possibly completing the IPO as soon as June 2026, with a target fundraising scale as high as $75 billion and a potential valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. However, whether this number can stand firm in the public market remains the core question for investors.

According to a Bloomberg report on Thursday, SpaceX has selected several top Wall Street banks to assist in the IPO filing work, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley, all of which have confirmed participation. If the fundraising goal is achieved, this IPO will far surpass the $29.4 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, becoming the largest stock offering in global history.

SpaceX's listing plan has become more complex due to the all-stock acquisition of xAI completed in February this year. xAI is currently burning around $1 billion per month on AI infrastructure building, and this cash consumption is diluting the investment appeal of SpaceX’s core businesses—especially satellite internet service Starlink. At the same time, Musk intends to maintain absolute control over the company through a dual-class share structure, further increasing concerns for public market investors.

Why Choose to IPO Now

Although SpaceX has achieved considerable cash flow through its Starlink business, the company's grander strategic goals require far more funding than its current scale. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX clearly stated in an internal memo in December last year that IPO funds will be used for ongoing Starship rocket R&D, space AI data center construction, and lunar base projects.

The integration of xAI has sharply increased funding needs. According to sources, the roughly $1 billion monthly expenses for xAI’s computing power and model training have caused SpaceX’s pace of fundraising in the private market to become unsustainable. By going public and entering the open capital markets, SpaceX hopes to seize a fundraising lead in the AI arms race before OpenAI and Anthropic launch their own IPOs.

Valuation Logic: Support and Doubt

The $1.75 trillion valuation target has triggered obvious differences among analysts and investors.

Supporters’ core argument lies in the uniqueness of SpaceX’s business. According to Pitchbook analysts, “Starlink’s user growth, dominance in the rocket launch market, and progress in building direct-to-phone networks comprise a business combination unique to the public market.” SpaceX’s monopoly in commercial space, its deep ties with the defense and telecommunications industries, and Musk’s own brand effect—Tesla’s stock price has increased around 3000% in the past decade—could all draw significant investor interest.

However, the doubts are equally hard to ignore. Analysts generally value companies based on future earnings expectations, industry competition, and profitability, while xAI’s ongoing losses have dragged down overall financial performance. Some investors worry that Musk may continue to infuse resources from SpaceX, the leader in its industry, into xAI, which is just one of many players in a fiercely competitive field. If the market sees SpaceX as a loosely structured conglomerate, its valuation premium could be significantly compressed.

xAI Acquisition: Opportunity or Burden

SpaceX’s all-stock acquisition of xAI on the eve of the IPO has made some existing investors unhappy. Shareholders originally betting on the space industry now passively assume significant exposure to AI; those pessimistic about the AI sector suddenly face a potential high-risk bet.

Musk holds a completely different view. He defines this commercial map spanning rockets, space internet, artificial intelligence, and social media as a “vertically integrated innovation engine,” believing that business synergy will provide unique competitive advantages for the emerging opportunity of space data centers.

But whether this narrative can persuade public market investors remains to be seen. After SpaceX’s IPO, it will be required to disclose quarterly financial data for the first time, at which point xAI’s loss scale will be fully revealed to Wall Street.

Control Structure: Musk’s Moat

In terms of equity, before the xAI acquisition, Musk held less than half of SpaceX’s shares, as multiple rounds of private fundraising had brought in external investors, including Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Fidelity Investments, and Alphabet. After the xAI deal, Musk’s holding ratio is unclear.

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is considering adopting a dual-class share structure after the IPO to ensure that insiders—possibly including Musk himself—retain near-absolute control over key strategic and governance decisions for the company. For investors who appreciate Musk’s execution and long-term vision, this arrangement may not be a barrier; but should a serious misstep occur, the governance structure lacking checks and balances could pose a risk unacceptable to public market investors.

IPO Roadmap: As Early as June

If the process goes smoothly, SpaceX could complete its listing as early as June 2026.

As is customary, the process will start with submission of confidential filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the review of which typically requires two to three months. After the review is complete, the company will publicly disclose its prospectus and initiate a 15-day public review period. Afterwards, SpaceX and the syndicate banks will conduct a roadshow, collecting orders from institutional investors before setting the final offering price.

Retail investors are also expected to participate. Users of platforms such as Robinhood Markets and SoFi Technologies may be able to submit subscription applications directly via the platform, but retail allocations are typically very limited in popular IPOs.

The specific division of responsibilities among the five main underwriters—Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley—has not yet been clarified, but given the unprecedented scale of the transaction, Wall Street institutions are clearly eager to participate.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```