``` "Is the 'long bull' trend still ongoing? JPMorgan: Technical analysis indicates that precious metals will enter a consolidation period in the coming weeks." ```

The unilateral rise in precious metals has temporarily come to an end.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, JPMorgan technical strategist Jason Hunter and his team released a report on Thursday stating that while the foundation of the long-term bull market trend remains solid, after recent intense volatility, technical patterns indicate that the market has officially entered a consolidation phase.

The bank expects that gold will form a broad fluctuation range that could last for several months, above the support area of $4264-$4381 and below the resistance zone of $5100-$5150.

The report also points out that the US Dollar Index hovering below the 100 mark, and the movement of the S&P 500/gold ratio, suggests that the long-term "devaluation trade" has not ended. The current consolidation in precious metals is a pause in the bull market, not a bearish reversal.

Short-term consolidation for gold, long-term bull market logic unchanged

JPMorgan's technical team analysis believes that recently, gold prices have exhibited short-term "explosive" reversal characteristics, which typically herald the arrival of a consolidation period, but this is by no means the end of the long-term rebound.

From a tactical perspective, gold prices will undergo a necessary consolidation before challenging the 5100 mark.

Investors need to pay attention to key technical levels to define the fluctuation range:

On the downside, the initial rebound in gold prices will be tested by mid-term support levels, especially the 50-day moving average at 4500 and the Q4 2025 pattern breakout area in the 4264–4381 zone.

On the upside, rebound momentum is expected to weaken near 5000, with stronger resistance in the 5100–5140 region.

The report emphasizes that, taking into account the long-term price patterns and comparing them to the end phase of the currency devaluation cycle in the late 1970s, the long-term currency devaluation cycle is not yet complete. This means the bull market foundation still exists, and the current consolidation is more about building momentum for subsequent trends.

Copper: Pullbacks are buying opportunities

Compared to precious metals, JPMorgan believes that base metals will show stronger resilience. Although LME copper prices have shown upward exhaustion and deceleration after reaching mid-term targets in the 14095–14596 zone, cyclical rotation will provide support.

Technically, as the market enters consolidation, the first support is expected to be in the 12074–12105 area. More crucial mid-term support is at 11100–11200; as long as market trading stays above this multi-year breakout zone, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.

Notably, the report points out through regression analysis that the copper price surge has been partly driven by "currency devaluation flows," with the implied global manufacturing PMI forecasts (about 53) much higher than the actual reading (around 50.5). Although copper prices may slightly overestimate the strength of cyclical recovery, the integrity of the cyclical trend means copper will attract substantial buying interest once it pulls back.

Macro drivers: Weak dollar supports the long bull

The main support for the long-term bullish logic of commodities still comes from the foreign exchange market. After January’s attempt to break through the support area for the second half of 2025, the US Dollar Index experienced sharp volatility and remains confined within a clear range.

JPMorgan points out that the key is the US Dollar Index having run mainly below the critical long-term turning point of 100 over the past eight months.

As long as the price continues below this level, the market is prone to resume the downtrend that began in early 2025. This weak dollar environment will keep supporting the long-term bullish logic for precious metals and commodities.

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The above highlight content is from Chasing Wind Trading Desk.

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