Is the moat of miracle weight loss drugs collapsing? Multiple pharmaceutical companies on three major platforms may be embroiled in a brutal price war.
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Four years ago, Novo Nordisk's long-acting GLP-1 drug semaglutide became an instant hit upon launch thanks to its powerful weight-loss effects.
Since then, Novo Nordisk also surpassed French luxury giant LVMH in 2023, seizing the title of highest market capitalization among listed companies in Europe.
But as Eli Lilly launched tirzepatide, a GLP-1/GIP dual-target weight loss drug with even stronger effects, Novo Nordisk has gradually declined, with its market value evaporating by more than 60% since last July.
Although tirzepatide still enjoys a certain exclusive position, its terminal price seems unable to withstand the competition among channels.
A silent price war over the weight loss "miracle drug" has already broken out among major Internet platforms.
Recently, under Meituan Medicine’s subsidies, the presale price for tirzepatide 10mg was as low as 450 yuan, which is dozens of yuan lower than Alibaba and JD.com’s self-operated platforms.
In this imminent price war, part of the cause is the significant price drop after tirzepatide was included in the medical insurance catalog, impacting the out-of-hospital market price system. But the more crucial factor still points to intense competition in the GLP-1 market.
As the price of tirzepatide declines, subsequent domestic GLP-1 drugs are facing even harsher competition.
The first to bear the brunt is Innovent Biologics. Its GLP-1/GCGR dual-target drug Mazdutide (2mg*2) currently still prices about 100 yuan higher than tirzepatide.
If prices are not lowered, future market expansion for Mazdutide will be less promising.
Homogeneous players will face even fiercer challenges. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently no fewer than 10 domestic pharmaceutical companies applying for semaglutide’s market approval, and about 10 companies advancing clinical progress on such drugs.
The once blue ocean market has already turned red.
Meituan Fires the First Shot
The price war has finally reached the weight loss miracle drug.
Recently, the price for tirzepatide 10mg on the Meituan platform has dropped to 450 yuan.
Other platforms are not to be outdone. For the same specification, JD’s JDX self-operated official store and Alibaba Health’s Officially Selected Goods are as low as 483.9 and 486.15 yuan respectively, but still about 30 yuan higher than Meituan.
In addition to the price advantage, Meituan even displays a “Guaranteed Weight Loss” slogan on its tirzepatide sales page and offers a “at least 3kg weight loss in one month with a complimentary 1000-yuan medical beauty treatment” event.
The price cuts have indeed yielded good results.
An internal source at Meituan told Xinfeng that on December 24, the first day of the price reduction pre-sale event for Meituan Medicine, tirzepatide orders surged over 10-fold compared to the previous day.
This is a rare instance of price competition in the Internet platforms’ pharmaceutical health business segment.
Previously, the rivalry among Alibaba, JD, and Meituan in the pharmaceutical health business was mainly over the right to debut new drugs, but prices were largely the same.
This year, although Alibaba, JD, and Meituan have launched a takeout war with user subsidies, the three have never started a price subsidy battle in the pharmaceutical health segment.
On one hand, prices for some drugs are still related to medical insurance payments, making the pricing system complex.
A major reason for the steep drop in tirzepatide’s price this time is that it gained entry to the medical insurance catalog through price reduction, creating a price anchor for the out-of-hospital market.
Although the medical insurance negotiation price hasn’t been disclosed, some data revealed by doctors on social media shows that out-of-pocket monthly cost for tirzepatide within hospitals with insurance can be as low as 300 yuan.
However, tirzepatide’s approved indication for insurance is adult type 2 diabetes blood glucose control, with strict restrictions on patient eligibility—adult type 2 diabetics whose blood sugar is still poorly controlled (HbA1c ≥7.0%) after diet and exercise as well as treatment with metformin and/or sulfonylureas; weight loss indication is not covered by insurance.
This means the huge weight-loss consumer group cannot benefit from insurance reimbursement and still faces full out-of-pocket costs.
This is the logic behind major e-commerce platforms’ price cuts: As the in-hospital insurance low price becomes the anchor, the out-of-hospital market lowers tirzepatide’s retail price to a range close to the insurance reimbursement standard, to attract the self-paying customers overflowing from indication restrictions.
On the other hand, in the past, the scarcity of new drugs gave upstream pharmaceutical companies sufficient bargaining power, making it difficult for Internet platforms to break through their pricing systems.
But now, some innovative pharmaceutical firms are changing their mindset.
This September, Eli Lilly’s president of international business, Patrick Johnson, said in an interview that they are applying a “consumer-oriented” business strategy similar to the US market globally, including cooperation with telemedicine and digital platforms, reaching patients from the UK, China, to the UAE—most of whom need to pay for weight-loss drugs out of pocket.
This means that, for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs that combine medical and consumer properties as “super star products,” pharmaceutical companies are trying to move beyond the traditional hospital sales model, proactively using digital platforms’ traffic and service advantages to more efficiently penetrate the huge out-of-hospital consumer market.
However, the willingness of global pharma giants to step down from their pedestals is most likely due to intense competition around these drugs.
"On the surface it looks like insurance, but actually the price cuts are driven by fierce market competition, with insurance price cuts as a catalyst—so prices will keep dropping in the future," Zhao Heng, founder of Latitude Health, told Xinfeng.
Whether tirzepatide (10mg) prices will fall below 300 yuan is now under close attention.
Where Will Domestic GLP-1 Go?
The price cut for tirzepatide is bringing more pressure to domestic GLP-1 drug companies.
The first affected is Mazdutide, Innovent Biologics’ GLP-1 drug launched in June this year, also suitable for both weight loss and diabetes treatment.
Mazdutide uses a GLP-1/GCGR dual-target mechanism and is the only domestically approved dual-target weight-loss drug among Chinese GLP-1 drugs.
But Mazdutide did not do a head-to-head trial with tirzepatide, but used semaglutide as the control.
In a 32-week treatment period, 48% of Mazdutide patients achieved both blood glucose control (HbA1c <7.0%) and ≥10% weight loss, significantly higher than the 21% in the semaglutide group.
Currently, Mazdutide (2mg*2) is priced at 540 yuan on Meituan, 580 yuan on JD, and 630 yuan on Alibaba’s self-operated platforms, each over 100 yuan higher than tirzepatide.
The price war is adding uncertainty to Mazdutide’s future sales outlook.
JP Morgan predicts that Innovent may adopt a flexible pricing strategy for Mazdutide to counter tirzepatide’s competition, also noting China’s vast weight-loss drug market is large enough for several blockbuster drugs to grow.
But the secondary market is "voting with its feet." Since late September this year, Innovent's stock price has fallen 18.28%, with the largest drawdown being nearly 30%.
The competition is “only increasing,” and more domestic GLP-1 drugs are coming soon.
Within the next two years, single-target GLP-1 drug prices may face an "avalanche."
Currently, semaglutide prices have already dropped below 200 yuan.
In Alibaba Health’s self-operated pharmacy, Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide (Ozempic) 1.5ml specification can be as low as 175 yuan, a "cliff-drop" from the thousand-yuan price back in the day—slashed in half again and again.
To make matters worse, the core compound patent for semaglutide in China will expire in 2026.
Currently, at least 10 domestic pharmaceutical firms including Chia Tai Tianqing, CSPC, Fosun Wanbang, Sino-US Shanghai Squibb, Livzon, etc., are applying for semaglutide marketing, and about 10 companies are in Phase III clinical trials.
To cope with future fierce competition, some domestic drugmakers are now aiming for product differentiation.
From the current situation, adding number of targets to achieve better weight-loss results may find it difficult to “outpace” Eli Lilly.
After tirzepatide, Eli Lilly is pushing the GLP-1/GCG/GIP triple-target weight loss drug Retatrutide, which is currently in Phase III clinical trials and expected on the market in 2026, likely to become the world’s first approved triple-target GLP-1/GCG/GIP weight loss drug.
Domestically, companies such as Minovia Biotech, United Laboratories, and Huadong Medicine are already working on triple-target GLP-1 clinical development.
Some companies are also adding muscle gain as a target in their product designs, not just focusing on weight loss.
For example, Laekna Therapeutics’ monoclonal antibody LAE102 against ActRIIA is designed for combination with GLP-1 drugs to further reduce fat and significantly mitigate muscle loss caused by GLP-1 drugs.
Recently, LAE102 has launched a Phase I multi-dose extension study for treating obesity in China and has already dosed its first subject.
From the current battle situation, for domestic players still in clinical stages, if they cannot match Eli Lilly’s Retatrutide in efficacy nor seize a timing advantage, then continuing to “compete” in this field may have limited significance.
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